mrsnake3695
I'm confused
Silver Level
Some of you people way over rate AQ off suit and under rate position. It's really a standard fold under the gun. You aren't desperate yet so why are we risking your tourney life and AQ? At this stage we won't double up with it most likely. We will either be stealing the blinds or getting knocked out.
Actually, because this is a tight table the fold makes even more sense. If you have a loose table or 1 or 2 loose players, then you might get called by A-J A-10 K-Q type hands which would argue more for shoving than shoving into a tight table. If you have a loose table or a couple of loose players you have a chance to double up which makes shoving with A-Q worth the risk much more so than at a tight table.
Actually, because this is a tight table the fold makes even more sense. If you have a loose table or 1 or 2 loose players, then you might get called by A-J A-10 K-Q type hands which would argue more for shoving than shoving into a tight table. If you have a loose table or a couple of loose players you have a chance to double up which makes shoving with A-Q worth the risk much more so than at a tight table.
V
viking999
Visionary
Silver Level
Well, it's hard to know what the hell "tight" means without being there. If Switch is right and we steal 9/10 times here, then I'm shoving with 23o, too. On average we win about 9000 for every 7650 we risk (and we don't always lose the 7650). It's not always the case, but I have seen tables that fold to the raiser 9/10 times near the bubble. Of course, shoving every hand is likely to affect your table image and consequently reduce your success rate, so be careful.
With AQ? Say the steal only works 80% of the time. We get 8000 guaranteed for every 2 times we risk 7650. Even if we're only 25% to win the 8650, and 75% to lose our 7650, it's worth it (and that's a fairly conservative assessment of AQ). That's about 4300 won minus 11500 lost. Add in the 8000, and it's still profitable. It's also risky, so I think 80% might be the break even point.
So in this particular case, the table would have to be tight for a shove to be profitable. However, I think an 80% success rate for a big UTG shove at a tight table is downright common. In general, I'd probably shove.
With AQ? Say the steal only works 80% of the time. We get 8000 guaranteed for every 2 times we risk 7650. Even if we're only 25% to win the 8650, and 75% to lose our 7650, it's worth it (and that's a fairly conservative assessment of AQ). That's about 4300 won minus 11500 lost. Add in the 8000, and it's still profitable. It's also risky, so I think 80% might be the break even point.
So in this particular case, the table would have to be tight for a shove to be profitable. However, I think an 80% success rate for a big UTG shove at a tight table is downright common. In general, I'd probably shove.
B
Bentheman87
Visionary
Silver Level
"Some of you people way over rate AQ off suit and under rate position. It's really a standard fold under the gun. You aren't desperate yet so why are we risking your tourney life and AQ? At this stage we won't double up with it most likely. We will either be stealing the blinds or getting knocked out.
Actually, because this is a tight table the fold makes even more sense. If you have a loose table or 1 or 2 loose players, then you might get called by A-J A-10 K-Q type hands which would argue more for shoving than shoving into a tight table. If you have a loose table or a couple of loose players you have a chance to double up which makes shoving with A-Q worth the risk much more so than at a tight table."
AQ os is not a standard fold utg, it's good enough to raise from any position at a full table early in a tournament. This is a short table late in a tournamentAce ten is a standard fold utg not AQ. And we are desperate here, not so desperate where we should shove with almost anything, but still desperate. Also, we should be willing to race right now, and if we are called it's likely we'll only be a small underdog in a race. The only reason IMO why I think a fold is reasonable here is since we are so close to cashing.
Actually, because this is a tight table the fold makes even more sense. If you have a loose table or 1 or 2 loose players, then you might get called by A-J A-10 K-Q type hands which would argue more for shoving than shoving into a tight table. If you have a loose table or a couple of loose players you have a chance to double up which makes shoving with A-Q worth the risk much more so than at a tight table."
AQ os is not a standard fold utg, it's good enough to raise from any position at a full table early in a tournament. This is a short table late in a tournamentAce ten is a standard fold utg not AQ. And we are desperate here, not so desperate where we should shove with almost anything, but still desperate. Also, we should be willing to race right now, and if we are called it's likely we'll only be a small underdog in a race. The only reason IMO why I think a fold is reasonable here is since we are so close to cashing.
Wild Rivers
Rock Star
Silver Level
If you love stealing blinds by risking ending up on the bubble, shove. Otherwise, fold and live to fight another day by sticking around for the money and therefore the ability to make less difficult decisions to steal or double up.
OzExorcist
Broomcorn's uncle
Bronze Level
Actually, I don't know about this. It really depends on the table, but I see people calling these bets with AJ / KQ / low-medium pairs often enough to think we won't always be crushed if we get called.
Especially if we've shoved a few hands, people will think they're racing at worst with low pairs or two paint cards.
I'm not saying it's sound thinking, just that a lot more players do this than we might expect. Especially when the stakes are relatively low, like in this game. Stack sizes in this hand make it a little less likely, but still I don't think we have to assume that we'll always be in bad shape if we get called.
Ben - as for limping in... personally, I don't like it. If we're just going to fold to a raise anyway, then we may as well have folded to start with. Chances are it'll be worse hands pushing us out, even if we hit an ace on the flop we can't be too confident because more ace-rag hands will be hanging about and have had the chance to make two pair on us... it's just a recipe for ugliness.
mrsnake3695
I'm confused
Silver Level
the OP described the table has tight which means that you won't get called by lesser hands. AK, AA, KK and maybe QQ would be about all that would call on a shove on a tight table this close to the bubble unless you have a loose image. All those hands dominate you so the risk reward doesn't justify risking all of your stack UTG. From later position yes but not UTG. Like I said a loose table it would be worth the risk because then you can loosen up the range for callers and might have a chance to double up.
My point is if you shove with AQ on a tight table near the bubble you either get the blinds or get called by a hand that dominates you and you;re out. Which is exactly what happened here. As for the guy that said AQ os isn't a standard fold UTG. If it's for all of your chips it is. If you have 100 times the BB and you bet 3X BB fine but that's not the situation here. If you play the hand it's for your tourney life and that lowers the value of AQ.
There's a saying in holdem. Don't go out with a Q in your hand. There's a reason for that. Don't over rate AQ and don't under rate position.
AlexeiVronsky
Rock Star
Silver Level
Ok let's say we'll only get called those times when we're dominated by AA, KK, QQ, and AK, with 7 other players at the table that will happen 9.84% of the time for a net result of -3937.93 (simplified conservatively discounting blinds by 500 for calling instance since we don't know what position will call and I don't want to make this 10xs harder to figure it out for a difference of a few chips) when we get called the other 90.16% of the time we gain 1150 for a net gain, by shoving all in, of 649 chips each time we make this play. If people will call us with lesser holdings we lose a little equity to pocket pairs and AQs but gain a lot from aces with lower kickers and worse hands. So unless people 5 people are going to go out this round it's clearly the best move to shove in here and even then it would be debatable as it gives us a much bigger chance of winning the entire tournament. I think people are undervaluing the strength of AQo here.
dj11
Legend
Silver Level
WE are not sure just where the bubble is. This is table 13, and there are two empty seats, (FT is a 9 seat table so really only one empty seat). There could still be many tables in play, only the blinds suggest any closeness to the bubble.
'M' here is closer to 10, just a bit shy. If this is the final table and this second shortstack gets these cards it is shove time. If however there are still several tables playing, I might think a 4x BB raise here will look stronger than a shove and thus more likely to take this down. A 3x bet here is too callable, a 5x bet here looks too much like a steal, and the shove screams suited Ace or Ace rag.
I don't quite like the fold here. Time is running out, and everyone knows it, and will be playing tight to make sure of the money. We've all been there, and this could be the last decent hand you get before things get really uncomfortable.
'M' here is closer to 10, just a bit shy. If this is the final table and this second shortstack gets these cards it is shove time. If however there are still several tables playing, I might think a 4x BB raise here will look stronger than a shove and thus more likely to take this down. A 3x bet here is too callable, a 5x bet here looks too much like a steal, and the shove screams suited Ace or Ace rag.
I don't quite like the fold here. Time is running out, and everyone knows it, and will be playing tight to make sure of the money. We've all been there, and this could be the last decent hand you get before things get really uncomfortable.
AlexeiVronsky
Rock Star
Silver Level
We do know where we are in the tourney, if it looks like we're on a steal then we'll get more worse hands calling us increasing our EV and they're not likely to pay us off if we do hit our hand and we'll be out of position if we get a call, all-in is the best way to play this hand. I don't understand why there's even a debate, especially one without any evidence to back up an alternative position to pushing all-in.
KICKIN_ACES
Legend
Silver Level
couldn't agree with your analysis more
I have come across this similar situation a few times recently (3 to be exact
) & the only time I came out ahead was when I folded pre flop. Once I pushed & got called by kk & no Ace for me, The other I just raised 3x & got reraised & had no choice but to fold as the guy had played tight & always showed down premium hands