UTG AQo Do we raise? DEEP MTT

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scragbag

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Full Tilt Poker Game #4954278467: $2 + $0.25 Tournament (37510395), Table 13 - 250/500 Ante 50 - No Limit Hold'em - 13:22:35 ET - 2008/01/22


Stacks:
- BeaumontLivi with 10660 - pats3x with 3410 - crazychance with 11390 - bauerwelson with 11300 - BK91 with 9035 - bustrfold with 20242 - Dave5511 with 15185 - Scragbag with 7650

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Blinds:
Site: full tilt poker
* - Dealt to Scragbag:
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* - Sklansky group 3
Preflop:


5 PLACES FOR THE MONEY.

Do we raise here UTG or fold?

So far table has been rather tight, generally showing down HIGH PP



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Steveg1976

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you have an M of 6.6 so it is shove or fold time. You are UTG so blind is coming fast. I think I shove here and hope to steal the blinds or win a coin flip. With the low M you are running out of time and starting to get to the point were calling a shove from you will be more like swatting flys.
 
soccerfreakjj10

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I would definitely fold here UTG but I am a nit. If the bubble had just burst, however, I am pushing this.
 
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Bentheman87

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Who cares about breaking the bubble and winning your buyin back plus $1 or $2. Take a chance at stealing the blinds or doubling up so maybe you can go deeper into the tournament where the real money is. The final table players will be getting probably $100+. Like someone already said you're running out of time and you have a strong hand. I'd probably shove here with hands as weak as A 10 suited, AJ os, or 77. I think you should fold here if this were a satellite where places 1-X get the entry into a tournament and the rest get nothing. Or if you really need the extra $1 or $2 for cashing. I mean, if I had a BR of $100 and was playing a $75 buyin tournament then cashing would mean a lot since I'd probably win at least $150 by breaking the bubble. But if the buyin is not a lot of money to you then you should take a risk of going out on the bubble to try to go deeper.
 
soccerfreakjj10

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Who cares about breaking the bubble and winning your buyin back plus $1 or $2.

I care. I am a very profitable player because of this mindset. Do not get me wrong, I am not saying fold any two near the money, but the fact that he is UTG should point to a fold. Pushing here wouldn't be a horrendous play though.
 
royalburrito24

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Easy. Shove. OP pointed out that table is very tight and only shows down high PP. That plus considerable FE = shove.
 
Tobmeister

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I think that both plays are fine, read dependent of course. A push here is fine as you have a low M and blinds are coming, also shoving here could take the play away from others. Folding is also not so horrible as you may want to wait (if you can) for a better opurtunity
 
Cheetah

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Both plays are fine but folding is probably better due to closeness of bubble.

If you push and you are called, the best you can hope for is a coin-flip. If you don't get called, you stole the blinds. Better to steal from later position with worse hand than from UTG.

As far as going to final table for big money and forgetting about the bubble: That's not necessarily correct to do. More all-ins decrease the probability to get to FT, but increase the chance for a bigger stack when one gets there. These 2 factors work in opposition to each other. It is not a clear cut where to draw the "optimal" line.
 
soccerfreakjj10

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THIS! Exactly the answer.

VVVVVVVVVVVV

Both plays are fine but folding is probably better due to closeness of bubble.

If you push and you are called, the best you can hope for is a coin-flip. If you don't get called, you stole the blinds. Better to steal from later position with worse hand than from UTG.

As far as going to final table for big money and forgetting about the bubble: That's not necessarily correct to do. More all-ins decrease the probability to get to FT, but increase the chance for a bigger stack when one gets there. These 2 factors work in opposition to each other. It is not a clear cut where to draw the "optimal" line.
 
OzExorcist

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Easy. Shove. OP pointed out that table is very tight and only shows down high PP. That plus considerable FE = shove.

I tend to agree with this.

The only people who could afford to call you without risking being crippled are the two players in the blinds. That counts in your favour. And the bubble is the best chance you're going to get to accumulate chips off a tight table, so you want to capitalise on your opportunities.

Also, the blinds are about to hit you and take a big chunk out of your stack. Combine that with the fact that a raise from UTG should carry a little more respect than one from the button, and I think you've got a perfectly reasonable argument for shoving here.

There are some other factors that should affect your decision, of course: your position in the tournament as a whole, and the size of the bottom stacks on the other tables. And when is the next blind increase? Then there's your own cashing-vs-winning philosophy to consider.
 
shinedown.45

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I shove here and hope for the best.
As Oz has stated, a push from UTG should carry more weight and respect especially on a tight table, IMHO the only one I see calling here is the short stack if he/she picks up Ax or any PP.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

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Bleh, I probably fold this but I wouldn't hate shoving (well I would, but I'd hate it marginally more than folding).

Problem here is we have one of those awkward stack sizes which means a shove seems a little excessive, but a standarad raise here might induce a shove from one of the bigger stacks (who notably are in the blinds), thinking he has FE (which he probably does).

The antes make this a shove/fold proposition, and I'm inclined to toss this because the prospect of shoving 15bbs with AQ into 7 players makes me shiver.
 
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feramorzz

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Position?

Apologies if I've just hijacked this thread, but what it you're in the cutoff, and there's one middle position caller, everyone else folds, and there's you, the dealer and the blinds.

Assume stack sizes are like above. Will that change things, i.e. from UTG to cutoff?

My last hand at my last tournament was exactly this; low M, late position, had to push with AJ suited, and the small blind woke up with AK and pretty much finished me off.

The frustrating part is getting used to all the different ways one can lose a perfectly good hand. Pretty infuriating if you ask me!:confused:
 
shinedown.45

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Apologies if I've just hijacked this thread, but what it you're in the cutoff, and there's one middle position caller, everyone else folds, and there's you, the dealer and the blinds.

Assume stack sizes are like above. Will that change things, i.e. from UTG to cutoff?

My last hand at my last tournament was exactly this; low M, late position, had to push with AJ suited, and the small blind woke up with AK and pretty much finished me off.

The frustrating part is getting used to all the different ways one can lose a perfectly good hand. Pretty infuriating if you ask me!:confused:
Insta-shove in the position you had mentioned, just because your chances against 2-3 players having a better hand is lower than if you are faced with 7 or more players to act.
 
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scragbag

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Well the tale of the story is, i did shove, an got called by a big stack who flipped kings which held up. :(
 
Cheetah

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That illustrates the problems with shoving here with AQ.
  • You are in early position, so many players behind you have the chance to pick-up a superior hand
  • Table is tight, so if you are called, you would be lucky to be in a coin flip
  • If you are not called, you increase your stack by 10% (at the risk of being eliminated)
  • You are close to the bubble
The above factors mean negative $EV to me.
 
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switch0723

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  • Table is tight, so if you are called, you would be lucky to be in a coin flip
  • If you are not called, you increase your stack by 10% (at the risk of being eliminated)
True cheetah, but a push on a shorthanded, tight table, is likely to get through 9 of 10 times meaning we have nearly doubled our stack before being called, and then will still have odds to win. I think we have to push here, it is just unlucky if we are crushed
 
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switch0723

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^^^ i didnt mean to say odds to win, i actually meant we still have a chance to win
 
Monoxide

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all.

in.

and smile as you are given the blinds or subjected to a coin flip :D

or maybe like kk aa
 
AlexeiVronsky

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I think a push is a good idea here, you're likely to have the best hand, and even if you don't and get called you still have a shot to win the hand, putting you in a position where you needn't worry about the blinds for the time being and can play more hands and hopefully make it to the final table with a good sized stack. You're about to lose 1/10 of your stacks to the blinds, so don't see how you can wait.
 
mrsnake3695

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The problem with pushing AQ here is that we will most likely only get called from hands that dominate us, either AA, KK or AK. Hands that we are ahead of or flipping with will most likely fold. Meaning we are only hoping to pick up the blinds if anyone can call we are most likely out. So it seems the risk/reward isn't right for shoving. If we were in late or even late/middle position it would be different, but UTG as hard as it would be it's a fold. By the way, as one person suggested we are not under 10X BB yet so we aren't under extreme pressure to make a move out of position with an average hand.
 
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feramorzz

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Hand history & patience

The flip side to this whole thing is that oftentimes this is the first playable hand in god knows how long, and if you don't push here, you may just end up getting blinded away anyway.

I think it's safe to say that we've all been down the four paths; pushed and won, pushed and lost, folded and won later, folded and lost later as well.
 
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Bentheman87

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The thing is even though we have an M of 6.6, we are not extremely desperate here. We can survive 53 more hands before we are blinded off. If our M were less than 5 here than this would be an instant shove. If our M were 3 or less then any ace would be good enough to shove. What do you guys think about limping in? Then if we're raised we can think about folding since the table is so tight.
 
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