Unlucky? Or just fold and move on?

[ssbn743]

I’m in my normal live $210 buy-in event at my local casino. Levels are 30 minutes long and we started with 30K in chips, Level 1 is $50/$100.

It was a tough day and not much of what I was trying to do was working. I came back from break into Level 9 ($200/$600/$1200) with $18K in chips or 15BB. I went through the blinds twice with no opportunity to get them in and finally shoved the CO with KQ off. I was called by AJ from the BB, but out-flopped him and nearly tripled up.

A few hands later in Level 10 ($200/$800/$1600), I was in the BB and there was a MP1 raise to $5K and a MP call. I found and shoved ~$26K - I was called by both players with and

Flop:

Turn:

River:

So, that was fun! I then had about $95K.

A couple of tough situations later, during which, I defaulted to folding; I was down to about $78K when the following hand takes place.

From the CO I’m dealt in Level 12 ($400/$1200/$2400)

I had been raising a large percentage of my LP hands, especially after the $90K triple up. For that reason, I would normally fold this Q9 here. However, the button folded out of turn, something he had been doing all day in addition to constantly limping and betting out of turn as well – it was really getting annoying. Since I knew he was going to fold, I went ahead and raised the Q9; I made it $5800 (2.25X with 12BB-40BB + ante).

The Button and SB folded and the BB reluctantly called. I have played the BB before and he is a quality player, I think of him as a TAG player that can border on an ABC player at times – but his reluctance to call was not a ploy and he had about $85K to start the hand.

Pot: $16,800

Flop:

He checked it to me and I made a C-bet of $6K (about 1/3 pot). He called.

Pot: $28,800

Turn:

Again he checked to me and I bet $10K (again, about 1/3 pot); he raised to $20K.

This player is certainly capable of higher level poker thinking, I certainly have nothing on him in that regard. So I thought about this hand from his perspective:

1. I may very well be LAG in his mind, especially from late positions
2. He knows that I am more than capable of firing two-barrels with air
3. Not much of this board connects with my LP raising range

From my perspective:

1. I know he may be playing me as a LAG here
2. He took a line that is common OOP against a LAG, call/check-call/check-raise
3. Albeit, most players would C/R the flop against a LAG, a turn C/R is acceptable and actually gets more money in the pot – at a much higher risk, plus you run into representation problems on dry boards as well

If he thinks I have air, then that’s good, because I don’t. I’m not afraid of any sets since he was reluctant to call pre-flop; if he had 3 3 he would have been more than willing to set mine. I also don’t think he could have any two-pair combos, 9 3 or 9 4 are a fold pre-flop to him. I think he has air and thinks I do too – he may even have a King only and think it’s good.

I call with plans to re-evaluate the river but am probably not folding to any river – if he doesn’t shove the river – I’ve got him.

Pot: $68,800

River:

He bets $15K. A last ditch effort to make it seem like he has a piece and wants to get paid.

I move all-in for about $45K. He calls after about 45 seconds or so and shows

Wow! – and my day is done.

Was this just an unlucky cooler? Should I have simply folded at some point in here; maybe even pre-flop?

 

[deluns28]

Your flop and turn bet are too low. A reraise of a TAG player should be something to worry about.

Not sure if he will fold if you shoved the turn. He is sure that he is ahead when you called the turn and just getting value for 15K. Just flat call or fold i think since you have encountered resistance in turn.

 

[V6mitg6rewh6re]

It seems like to me that it was a simple cooler I mean with that board and situation and the type of player yor playing your hand is gonna be good usually honestly I would of done same thing there so IMO it's just a unluk cooler

 

[love that omaha]

I have a general tournament philosophy not to go broke or get too involved with sub premium hands - He was most likely reluctant to call with K9 out of position because he didn't want to be dominated by AK or KQ etc, hands you have previously shown down. Whenever an opponent goes from timid to strength in a hand you should give him credit for a hand imo. So if you go with the thought he may have a hand - what can you beat that he would check raise on the turn? I don't think anything - categorizing him as a tight aggressive player makes it more likely he has hit the flop. The final consideration is it costs you more to be wrong and shove than it does to be wrong and fold the turn. This is almost always the case in tourneys, when you get that little feeling of hesitation, something is telling you that you are beat. Listen to that voice more often. Most players float less often out of position - maybe he takes this line with 88 but he just as often has A4 suited - mid pairs may very well re-raise you if you have been quite active. Sorry to be critical but it just sounds like you got the information you needed to fold and just tried to concoct a scenario where you had the best hand - we have all been there before but I just hate to sacrifice a whole tourney, especially one where I have been very lucky to chip up on a marginal situation. You were in good shape with 78 k and even though you wouldn't have been happy with 45k it is still quite possible to run it back up. Oh well, better luck next time.

 

[horizon12]

First hand played fine, pot already big and easy shove our AKo

Second hand we have around 18M , i would have played fold, I stick to a more tight game...

But consider your variant , when you raise ( I would not say that this is the wrong game, but if we know that the blinds tighter players we can steal )

In flop we get top pair with low cards on board, not think what this flop good for BB.. So we need cbet, i bet not much like 4-5K , because in the table our image loose.. And need what villain call our cbet...

In river i can say change nothing, not think what this card helped villain and he get trips , so we must continue our aggressive.. Bet 10k very good bet , if villain have only two not suited overcard ( like JTo KTo ) he fold sure.

But after your bet in turn, he reraise, if villain know what our image lag , him range now like : pairs 66 77 88 , flush draw + 2 overcards and the worst scenario its over pairs... So we have still can not believe that would be behind , we need call ( right pot odds + top pair )

In river come difficult card , if villain have flush draw he got , Our pot odds now 5in1 , but it is more similar villain bet for vallue , if he wanted you to knock out he reraise in river much more , now he again bet not much... Now I'd give him a range of closed flush draw or overpairs... That makes sense, so I would find a fold that save stack. ( because TAG not, so to play against LAG , with small reraise, he can do it more much if want what LAG fold , small is said about the strength of the hand and this bet mean about vallue )

So in river you need fold , when villain small bet...

 

[joe777]

Your raise pre is fine,but i would seriously

evaluate the turn and river after the villain 3bet.

 

[suby_rafael]

This situation could have easily been avoided if you had done some pot control.

You got some value out of the flop so you could have checked the turn for controlling the pot. Instead villain decides to play back at you as your bet seems weak and he makes a value raise. None of you do not have a strong hand but villain suspects his hand is good looking at your turn bet which reeks weakness. This is why pot control is necessary especially when you have a marginal hand.

And why did you shove the river anyways ?? .That was the stupidest thing to do after villain showed such strength.

So i don't think you were unlucky in this hand and it definitely was not a cooler. You just overplayed your hand which was "a pair of nines with a queen kicker". Try to understand what a cooler is then atleast maybe, just maybe you'll stop overplaying your hand. I still can't understand why you shoved the river - it's just mind boggling.

You sir dug your own grave in that hand and fell into it. :saint:

 

[ssbn743]

This situation could have easily been avoided if you had done some pot control.

You got some value out of the flop so you could have checked the turn for controlling the pot. Instead villain decides to play back at you as your bet seems weak and he makes a value raise. None of you do not have a strong hand but villain suspects his hand is good looking at your turn bet which reeks weakness. This is why pot control is necessary especially when you have a marginal hand.

And why did you shove the river anyways ?? .That was the stupidest thing to do after villain showed such strength.

So i don't think you were unlucky in this hand and it definitely was not a cooler. You just overplayed your hand which was "a pair of nines with a queen kicker". Try to understand what a cooler is then atleast maybe, just maybe you'll stop overplaying your hand. I still can't understand why you shoved the river - it's just mind boggling.

You sir dug your own grave in that hand and fell into it. :saint:

You know, it is posts like these that make me wonder why I even post on this forum; I wonder; would you speak to me like this if we were face to face? Maybe we should make that happen.

Did you even read the post? I stated, very clearly, why I did what I did on every street. Certainly, from an ABC perspective, pot control and calling the river, at best, is the right play. However, I had reasons for doing what I did – once I think my opponent has air and is trying to get me off my hand – they’re all going in one way or another.

I could have checked the turn, but that doesn’t fit with what a LAG would do. If I think that he thinks I’m LAG, and I actually have top pair, I want to do everything I can to continue being a LAG in his mind – again, did you even read the OP?

And yes, a cooler, as in the single hand that could beat me here. Go ahead, after re-reading the OP, name another hand he could have had?

 

[Ranny]

I cannot understand the shove? If you think he has air, it has no benefit at all, you are only ever being called by a better hand. You have showdown value and if your read is right, by just calling you have exactly same odds of winning pot.

 

[suby_rafael]

@ssbn743 - sir i just wanted to put out a straight forward answer. I apologize if it came across as rude. Lighten up a bit will ya ? :icon_joke:icon_chee

 

[ssbn743]

@ssbn743 - sir i just wanted to put out a straight forward answer. I apologize if it came across as rude. Lighten up a bit will ya ? :icon_joke:icon_chee

Ok, fair enough, I may have over reacted a slight bit, my bad.

I cannot understand the shove? If you think he has air, it has no benefit at all, you are only ever being called by a better hand. You have showdown value and if your read is right, by just calling you have exactly same odds of winning pot.

I guess you’re right – but I wasn’t thinking like that. To me, he was doing what he was simply because he thought he could get me off the hand – so I shoved for the sole reason of getting his fold. I think that I could have been called by worse here, if he thought I were LAG he could have easily had K8 and taken the same line. Plus, I can’t really flat, because flatting is half of my remaining stack at a 2X starting stack pot.

I just thought the turn check raise was a play; and it seemed to make even more sense after the small river bet (which left him a plan B). I wonder, if I had 4-bet shoved the turn, does he fold? It would have been a really tough call for his range, that’s for sure.

 

[wllstps]

About this hand, in my opinion the pre flop raise from the HJ, CO, or BO must be higher than the raises from MP and EP, so i would probably make it around 3.3x - 5x(max), so you have a TAG player on BB and he calls to see the flop (that excludes suited hands because the pre flop raise was very low. Then he checked to you , here you did perfect, he calls (thats a reason to worry), when the board pairs the 2nd top pair, then I'm afraid, because its totally possible for a TAG player to have A4s on the BB and complete 1.25x to see the flop and hit it. So as soon as I get re raised on the turn from that expecific player I would Insta-Fold and save my stack. But yes, sometimes we all make mistakes, and even I think I could have make that mistake If like for I.e: i was tired, or was with too much pressure.

Good Grinds

 

[jervi1]

Jst unlucky u had at least thought about what he was doin he could have done same qith j9 lol

 

[Himanshu]

WE were lucky with KQ and AK but luck has its limits.In the Q9 hand if he has any 4 any over pair any set or any 9 which out kicks us then we are dead so try to get to show down with minimum loss or just fold there are not many hands that Q9 is beating on that flop anyway.

 

[intents09]

I'd have to agree in not understanding the push at the finish there. I may not have the higher level thinking necessary to see that play with our hand but given the turn c/r he makes, and your analysis of him as a player, I don't read it as a play. In fact, from villain player type, he's probably almost never making a play with air given the reluctant preflop call he showed. Is it possible he does this with J9? I think not. So now I'm trying to figure out if he has a mid pair, 77 or 88 and doesn't believe I've hit the 9, if he has an over pair, or if he has a much larger hand, granted that last one is rare aside from 33 without a reraise preflop. So at the end of the day I slow down at his check raise on the turn and just flat him on the river. Even if I'm thinking my hand is good I'd rather not throw in the rest of my stack knowing I only get called by better just in case. All of that being said hindsight changes everything. As you said at the beginning you almost always fold there as do I so I can't think how I'm playing that hand through properly because I try to avoid the situation.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

Everything about the hand including your analysis is totally fine, IMO, until the river.

just flat the river.

What does your push accomplish? Do worse hands ever call you when you jam the river?

Do better hands ever fold?

Your hand is plenty strong to call his river bet, but by jamming you have turned your hand into a bluff which is not necessary with top pair good kicker you are either way ahead or way behind on most rivers. Not a hand to get crazy with. Just flat with what is most likely the best hand. In fact, even if he had checked to you on the river, I would say check it back.

Edit to add: I agree with Suby Rafael's call for Pot control. I don't think the strength of your hand warrants 3 streets of value. So, if I decide to Cbet this flop I would bet bigger. 50% pot maybe. But I also might check back the flop since it doesn't hit my perceived range, and it DOES hit a lot of BB type hands.

But, If I DO bet the flop, then perhaps the ideal line is to check back the turn because now you actually HAVE a hand and it will be under repped making it ripe for extracting value on the river...but that is also risky in giving a free card to his (most likely) overs. However, I probably would have bet the turn anyways. And I probably would have called the check raise on the turn given your read. But in the back of my mind I'd be EXTREMELY worried about 33, A4 and mildly worried about K9 and A9....least worried about A9 as he would likely 3bet or quickly call preflop.

Either way, I think either a bigger flop bet OR a turn bet (but not both) is probably the best line in the name of pot control. And then no matter how you get there, just flat the river with your marginal hand that has some showdown value.

So, no not a cooler in a traditional sense. Part of the beauty of playing in position is the ability to manipulate the pot size to suit the strength of your hand. This is something I'm just finally starting to learn the art of. it IS an art form...

 

[ssbn743]

Everything about the hand including your analysis is totally fine, IMO, until the river.

just flat the river.

What does your push accomplish? Do worse hands ever call you when you jam the river?

Do better hands ever fold?

Your hand is plenty strong to call his river bet, but by jamming you have turned your hand into a bluff which is not necessary with top pair good kicker you are either way ahead or way behind on most rivers. Not a hand to get crazy with. Just flat with what is most likely the best hand. In fact, even if he had checked to you on the river, I would say check it back.

Edit to add: I agree with Suby Rafael's call for Pot control. I don't think the strength of your hand warrants 3 streets of value. So, if I decide to Cbet this flop I would bet bigger. 50% pot maybe. But I also might check back the flop since it doesn't hit my perceived range, and it DOES hit a lot of BB type hands.

But, If I DO bet the flop, then perhaps the ideal line is to check back the turn because now you actually HAVE a hand and it will be under repped making it ripe for extracting value on the river...but that is also risky in giving a free card to his (most likely) overs. However, I probably would have bet the turn anyways. And I probably would have called the check raise on the turn given your read. But in the back of my mind I'd be EXTREMELY worried about 33, A4 and mildly worried about K9 and A9....least worried about A9 as he would likely 3bet or quickly call preflop.

Either way, I think either a bigger flop bet OR a turn bet (but not both) is probably the best line in the name of pot control. And then no matter how you get there, just flat the river with your marginal hand that has some showdown value.

So, no not a cooler in a traditional sense. Part of the beauty of playing in position is the ability to manipulate the pot size to suit the strength of your hand. This is something I'm just finally starting to learn the art of. it IS an art form...

Yeah, you know in hindsight there’s usually a better way. In truth, I shoved the river for one very specific reason – that was my plan! I saw no reason to change that plan either. It definitely would have been a hero call, but I think I could have been called by worse; J9 for example, or how about K8?

Obviously, I read the situation wrong and gave him much more credit than he was using. Basically, I put him on a very sophisticated 3 street bluff OOP for 80% of his own stack; recognizably, the odds of that line being correct get slimmer by the street. Even still, it’s hard for me to put him on a hand that beats top pair good kicker.

Checking back the turn is probably the best way forward, then I could call his river bet with some showdown value. That line just doesn’t add up to the image I was representing and kind of turns my hand up on the table.

I also really don’t like flatting the river; flatting the river leaves me with 12BB’s with blind levels going up in the next 20 hands at best; I don’t remember exactly where we were in the level but getting in 20 more hands would have been a generous estimate, it was probably more like one lap around the table. To be honest, if I had put him on K9, or even that range, I either would have folded to the 2-bet raise on the turn or 3-bet shoved all-in, flat calling the turn and re-evaluating the river is not an option with that hand in his range, in my opinion – what are we going to do when he leads out on the river? For my plan, I knew what I was going to do when he lead out on the river and that’s why I flat called the turn raise.

I probably should have simply folded when played back at from an OOP player that can be very ABC at times. Then again, he could have had J9 too. So, it comes down to the cooler question, on some level, I think it was a pretty sick cooler and am kind of at peace with it; and there was a measurable amount of FE (how much is anyone’s guess, but he didn’t snap call) to my river shove and it was still a tough call for his hand.