Two preflop folds lateish in MTT

[Irexes]

$11 rebuy 23 left of 110

I was going to post the first and stop before my fold, but as I was doing it the second hand happened.


Villain is 17% VPIP 4% PFR over 30 hands

***** Hand History for Game 6257046792 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:35114686 Level:11 Blinds-Antes(1,000/2,000 -75) - Tuesday, August 21, 16:02:05 ET 2007
Table Rebuy (1129495) Table #3 (real money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: BKV63 ( 20,876 )
Seat 2: trixxx888 ( 28,481 )
Seat 4: pedroilse ( 117,312 )
Seat 5: femida13 ( 41,335 )
Seat 6: Irexes ( 30,130 )
Seat 7: LightinGTT ( 17,920 )
Seat 8: marcus24111 ( 80,760 )
Seat 10: baron996 ( 50,247 )
Trny:35114686 Level:11
Blinds-Antes(1,000/2,000 -75)
BKV63 posts ante [75]
trixxx888 posts ante [75]
pedroilse posts ante [75]
femida13 posts ante [75]
Irexes posts ante [75]
LightinGTT posts ante [75]
marcus24111 posts ante [75]
baron996 posts ante [75]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Irexes [ Ac Qs ]
LightinGTT raises [6,000]
marcus24111 folds
baron996 folds
BKV63 folds
trixxx888 folds
pedroilse folds
femida13 folds
Irexes folds



Villain has played 1 hand of 25 and raised preflop and everyone folded.

***** Hand History for Game 6257054970 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:35114686 Level:11 Blinds-Antes(1,000/2,000 -75) - Tuesday, August 21, 16:03:59 ET 2007
Table Rebuy (1129495) Table #3 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: BKV63 ( 20,726 )
Seat 2: trixxx888 ( 21,831 )
Seat 4: pedroilse ( 117,162 )
Seat 5: femida13 ( 40,185 )
Seat 6: Irexes ( 26,980 )
Seat 7: LightinGTT ( 19,370 )
Seat 8: marcus24111 ( 80,610 )
Seat 10: baron996 ( 60,197 )
Trny:35114686 Level:11
Blinds-Antes(1,000/2,000 -75)
BKV63 posts ante [75]
trixxx888 posts ante [75]
pedroilse posts ante [75]
femida13 posts ante [75]
Irexes posts ante [75]
LightinGTT posts ante [75]
marcus24111 posts ante [75]
baron996 posts ante [75]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Irexes [ Ts Tc ]
baron996 folds
BKV63 raises [6,000]
trixxx888 folds
pedroilse folds
femida13 folds
Irexes folds

What are you chaps and chappesses doing here?

 

[joosebuck]

folding. any time i get down to the last like 2% of a mtt i go into like "first blood" mode. i call and reraise little, and raise with more. i think this period of time is more about stealing/restealing and that volatility makes aq and the like shrink since people are so ready to race in that they shove in 50/50 situations hoping they wont get a call.

 

[dj11]

I would have called both. Keeping in mind that at this stage, with these stacks, things are jumping, you have to either have a big stack before now, or be working on getting one now.

Justification? It's late in the first one, and I read one needs to defend ones blinds. AQ here looks good enough to defend with. Add in Lightning had to be feeling the creeping blinds and his range has to loosen up some.

TT in late position is different. Villain is also feeling the 'M' crunch, and you have position on him. You are starting to think you will need to get active as your 'M' ain't all that rosy either. Reraise might be in order here.

I think you missed 2 good opportunities here. Late stages of the MTT, dwindling 'M', against panicking 'M's. In both cases these were just standard raises. At this late stage that could mean they are scared to commit without monsters. Unfortunately it could also mean they have the monsters and are playing for value.

IMO, but then I haven't won anything lately, so what do I know.......

 

[Irexes]

I folded as you can see, but for me fold > push ........ > call. Are you letting go post flop in any case?

Even if their range includes AJ+ and all pairs and even KQ, you are going bust here either to a flip or dominating hand so often, is it worth the risk?

 

[blankoblanco]

#1 I fold definitely

#2 I fold too, but I don't hate a push if you really like variance. If he's raising 2 positions later or more, I think it's a push

 

[dj11]

I edited that first reply 4 times, so I'll reply more here. If you feel the cards are coming your way then perhaps you can afford to sit back and wait. Perhaps its a major flaw in my game but I seldom feel the cards are coming my way evenhandedly. I usually have to wait longer than most odds would suggest for my rushes. As an aside here, I think the poker gods owe me big time.

You neglect to state where the ITM bubble is, and that might influence reactions.

Both your player stats could be suggesting that they are both running card dead as much as being TAG.

I call the first one, and reraise the 2nd.

 

[Irexes]

I edited that first reply 4 times, so I'll reply more here. If you feel the cards are coming your way then perhaps you can afford to sit back and wait. Perhaps its a major flaw in my game but I seldom feel the cards are coming my way evenhandedly. I usually have to wait longer than most odds would suggest for my rushes. As an aside here, I think the poker gods owe me big time.

You neglect to state where the ITM bubble is, and that might influence reactions.

Both your player stats could be suggesting that they are both running card dead as much as being TAG.

I call the first one, and reraise the 2nd.

You've lost me dj. In no circumstances can I give any credence to the previous cards having any affect whatsoever on what's coming up.

Yes you get periods of good and bad cards, but the odds prior to any hand being dealt are always, always the same. If you are changing your play based on this you have a hole in your game.



(and top 16 paid, just came 16th, AK v A8 allin on a AJ3 flop. 8 hit the turn had it not I would have been back at the average)

 

[dj11]

With that ITM info, I might not reraise the TT hand.

As for variance, I have at least 1/2 million online hands under my belt, and know that yes, the odds are always the same over the huge run, and also know that when the cards are really good, they tend to stay pretty good over a long enough period to counter those times when the cards are bad over a long period. My aside there was hinting at an extended period of not so good cards, briefly interrupted by short spurts of decent hands.

How do I let this 'knowledge' affect me? For the most part I don't much let it affect me, I still play when the odds are good and fold when I don't like them, all the while refining my feel for those odds.

I still think you missed a playable opportunity to improve you standing at that table, but once again, I haven't won anything lately.

 

[joeeagles]

I like both folds, and while I'm able to to easily muck the 1st (AQ OOP vs shortstack UTG raise), on some days I panic in the 2nd one and end up shoving, unfortunately.

With the stats you give, 1 PF raise in 25 hands, and the size of his stack, you know he's calling. His 1/25 pretty much excludes hands like 77-88-99 since he's UTG +1, cause he sounds like one who folds those in EP. So we're either racing two overcards or we're WB to a higher pair (the more common scenario).

These hands (the 2nd) are the ones that test your patience and at times I fail it when I have a below average stack. I start saying to myself "are you waiting for aces?" and such, and I lose an opportunity to make a solid fold. Playing better and more relaxed with a small stack is an area in my game that needs to improve vastly.