Turned Set HH Analysis Deep in $55 50k GTD

[Tuda_51]

This is a $55 50k gtd with around 50 of 750 players left. $9100 USD for first, top 189 paid
average stack around 1 mill in chips. Right now I am playing $5-$20 MTT's. I took a shot at this one last night. After this hand I thought I had made a big mistake for not shoving the turn in game. I reviewed it this morning and ran equities I thought it was good again. After thinking about it a little bit longer I still think that shoving is best. I think his he was planning to check raise flop and then decided to lead turn and that is what messed me up in game.

Blinds 15k/30k
PF- Minraise from CO, SB calls
Flop- Check, Check
Turn- SB leads 4.3bb , I click back to 8.6BB, SB Calls
River- Check , Check

 

[maestro121920]

im jamming the turn for full value, board is so wet, end result is we lose but long term it is profitable

 

[alien666dj]

You had to bet on the flop and if he called then the next bet on the turn would generate fold equity for him. Although I doubt he would have folded his flush draw.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard open with - as far as I can calculate - around 30BB effective.

Flop
I like checking back. This is not the kind of board, we want to be C-betting with 100% of our range, and we have a pretty bad hand.

Turn
Gin card obviously, and I like raising, but I do agree, it could have been a bit bigger to set it up for an easier river jam. The great thing about raising, when you turn a set with a small pair, is that you are not representing anything other than exactly that set, so people will tend to not believe you and give you action.

River
Terrible card completing not only the frontdoor flush but also an OESD. You have around a pot sized bet left, so its difficult to bet anything here without committing yourself, and if you jam, I am not sure, how many worse hands, he can call you with. So I think, its completely fine to check back, and when he then show you a flush, I would feel like, I won. There are definitely players, who would have lost their entire stack here, and losing less is just as important as winning.

 

[Sidetracked]

I definitely am onboard with a ship on the turn.

Some players are incapable of folding a big draw ever, even with only 1 card to come. If he's one of them, you're losing anyway. If he does call, he's made a big mistake, and you get to stack the Sklansky bucks.

 

[fundiver199]

I definitely am onboard with a ship on the turn.

I on the other hand am definitely not onboard with shipping the turn, which would be a massive overbet. Sure its a fine line against a 13 out combodraw, as the opponent actually had, because we dont mind, if he fold that, and if he call, he is getting incorrect odds. But there are only 2-3 combos of such big draws in his range. He have far more combos of hands like A8, that are drawing completly dead, and overbet jamming allow him an easy way to fold all those hands. Yes it sucks to get drawn out on, but its part of poker, and avoiding it should never be our main goal.

 

[Tigroslav]

Your click back on the turn was perhaps a small mistake.
Hes not folding nearly enough to a clickback and your equity against a fairly standard cut-off opening range is not that much ahead to be commiting your tournament life in this hand.
The way you played was definately preferable to shoving the turn so dont be disapointed. About equaly good option was to flat the turn and 1/3 pot value bet brick rivers or fold to straight/flush completions.
Keeping in mind a bet on brick rivers could also rep an overset could perhaps call a half pot bet not more and live to fight another hand.