Trip Qs with flush on board but 2nd nut flush draw facing allin

[jaketrevvor]

I just busted out of the CC $350 freeroll on FT after my AQ got dogged by AT and here's hand that contributed to my busting; Villain seems to play his hands very honestly so far and is fairly tight:

full tilt poker Game #4142239876: Cardschat.com $350 Freeroll (30641983), Table 11 - 20/40 - No Limit Hold'em - 15:17:22 ET - 2007/11/11
Seat 1: adabazaar (1,415), is sitting out
Seat 2: pitbinho (1,405), is sitting out
Seat 3: MasterSlo (1,395), is sitting out
Seat 4: lkport (1,415)
Seat 5: snwsrfr (1,180)
Seat 6: jaketrevvor (4,000)
Seat 7: ermanorbay (2,595)
Seat 8: Chrisitfc (1,570)
Seat 9: drUmmZ (1,395), is sitting out
adabazaar posts the small blind of 20
pitbinho posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jaketrevvor [Jh Qs]
MasterSlo folds
lkport has 15 seconds left to act
lkport folds
snwsrfr folds
jaketrevvor raises to 120
ermanorbay raises to 200
Chrisitfc folds
drUmmZ folds
adabazaar folds
pitbinho folds
jaketrevvor calls 80
*** FLOP *** [Qd Kh 5h]
jaketrevvor bets 240
ermanorbay calls 240
*** TURN *** [Qd Kh 5h] [Qh]
jaketrevvor bets 640
ermanorbay raises to 2,155, and is all in
jaketrevvor: grrrr
Chrisitfc: flush?
jaketrevvor has 15 seconds left to act
jaketrevvor: the odds say i call i think
jaketrevvor: u got AQ?
jaketrevvor ???

What do we put him on and given this what is our action?

 

[Melkor]

Well, do you believe the villan could re-raise pre-flop with A10s? Because that is the highest heart combo he can have. It is possible but perhaps unlikely given your description of him. He must have strength to call on the flop and the all-in would suggest a flush, perhaps thinking the big stack could pay him off. In the face of your strong play he has only answered with more strength.

AQ seems a probable hand the way it is played outside the fact that it is improbable, lol. Could be scared of the flush and has panic shoved. His pre-flop antics could suggest AA maybe, with the Ah. Small re-raises (80 more on 3x ) could be seen as a monster trying to keep people around. Random call on a dangerous flop though, but a shove through panic is possible as well. Always possible a set of kings on the flop hoping for there to be a made flush out there after the turn.

As for your play, with our stack still at 2800 or around there, basically still pretty strong, and the villain telling us he has a monster, his play suggesting a monster and the board possibly making a monster, I don't like it. I would perhaps favour a fold. We have to ask ourselves what we beat: No made flush, KK, AQ, KQ, 55 (??). AA with the Ah would be the hand played perhaps like this (badly) that we are beating, but even then, we can still get stung on the river.

Easier for me to say now, but I would seriously consider folding. Tough spot. I suppose it is a freeroll though...

 

[jaketrevvor]

PF the raise defo did look like i could be up against AA or KK, but on the flop he called fairly quickly, too quickly to have As or a set of Ks both of which he would have thought about his options more/for longer

I'd been playing fairly aggressively up till now so he could easily put me on squadoosh and again if he had had AhTh for example I think he would have taken more time to consider what to do on the flop. So by this time I did have a fairly good read on his hand...

Anthing else before I post what happened?

 

[jaketrevvor]

Well even though I knew I was beat I somehow managed to convince myself I was getting odds on a call as if he had AQ I had 11 outs (8 hearts + 3 Jacks) and if he had the flush I had 10 outs (1 Q + 3 Jacks + 3 Kings + 3 5s) so if these are equally likely then I'm getting roughly 3.5 to 1 on a call and the pot was laying me almost exactly 2.5 to 1 so in retrospect bad call

Anyway here's what happened:

jaketrevvor: the odds say i call i think
jaketrevvor: u got AQ?
jaketrevvor calls 1,515
ermanorbay shows [As Qc]
jaketrevvor shows [Jh Qs]
*** RIVER *** [Qd Kh 5h Qh] [Ac]
ermanorbay shows a full house, Queens full of Aces
jaketrevvor shows three of a kind, Queens
ermanorbay wins the pot (5,250) with a full house, Queens full of Aces
jaketrevvor: nh
Chrisitfc: lol

I think the ace on the river was overkill..