TPTK donked into on turn

[baudib1]

What do you do on turn and river? Villain is running 51/13/1.5 over 55 hands.

Full Tilt, 30/60 blinds NL Hold'em Tourney, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BTN: 5,220 (87 bb)
SB: 4,268 (71.1 bb)
BB: 2,472 (41.2 bb)
UTG+1: 5,015 (83.6 bb)
UTG+2: 4,816 (80.3 bb)
Hero (MP1): 2,710 (45.2 bb)
MP2: 4,660 (77.7 bb)
MP3: 5,443 (90.7 bb)
CO: 6,785 (113.1 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP1 with Q

A

UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls 60, Hero raises to 193, MP2 folds, MP3 calls 193, 2 folds, SB calls 163, BB folds, UTG+2 calls 133

Flop: (832) 7

T

4

(4 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks

Turn: (832) Q

(4 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 bets 360, Hero calls 360, MP3 folds, SB folds

River: (1,552) 4

(2 players)
UTG+2 bets 240, Hero?????

 

[Inscore77]

What do you do on turn and river? Villain is running 51/13/1.5 over 55 hands.

Full Tilt, 30/60 blinds NL Hold'em Tourney, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BTN: 5,220 (87 bb)
SB: 4,268 (71.1 bb)
BB: 2,472 (41.2 bb)
UTG+1: 5,015 (83.6 bb)
UTG+2: 4,816 (80.3 bb)
Hero (MP1): 2,710 (45.2 bb)
MP2: 4,660 (77.7 bb)
MP3: 5,443 (90.7 bb)
CO: 6,785 (113.1 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP1 with Q

A

UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls 60, Hero raises to 193, MP2 folds, MP3 calls 193, 2 folds, SB calls 163, BB folds, UTG+2 calls 133

Flop: (832) 7

T

4

(4 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks

Turn: (832) Q

(4 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 bets 360, Hero calls 360, MP3 folds, SB folds

River: (1,552) 4

(2 players)
UTG+2 bets 240, Hero?????

I think I would have to shove him. The 4 really isnt scaring me too much, seems a lot more like JQ or JT, maybe KT given his vpip.

 

[ChuckTs]

Given his stats he could have anything including some bluffs on that turn. The diamond intrduced more draws to his range, so I think I'm just raising the turn and getting it in on the river barring a really bad card.

 

[baudib1]

I didn't want to raise the turn with two to act because I had seen MP3 check a set twice in a previous hand.

 

[shinedown.45]

My response may be incorrect and may add to help me better understand HUD stats.
Anyways, here goes.
With an aggression factor of 1.5, does it mean that he is not too aggressive? and if so, wouldn't his aggression on the turn be a little scary?
Especially since he's been playing half his hands, I may be more inclined to fold here if I have the right understanding of the stats here as he could be holding any 2pr just because his cards were suited, IMO a 51 player will hold onto any 2 suited cards that have an even slim chance of straightening or flushing.
If I am horribly wrong here, than I will gain a better understanding of HUD stats.

 

[ChuckTs]

For one, AF is relative to the vpip of the player. A 50 vpip player with a 1.5 AF is going to be way more aggressive than a 15 vpip player with the same AF.

That said, he's still an aggressive player, but even so he's not really showing all that much strength here. He's betting tiny fractions of the pot on a pretty innocent flop. In my experience our AQ is good like at least %75+ of the time here.

 

[shinedown.45]

For one, AF is relative to the vpip of the player. A 50 vpip player with a 1.5 AF is going to be way more aggressive than a 15 vpip player with the same AF.

That said, he's still an aggressive player, but even so he's not really showing all that much strength here. He's betting tiny fractions of the pot on a pretty innocent flop. In my experience our AQ is good like at least %75+ of the time here.

TY Chuck, that has helped me understand a little more about HUD stats.
So I was totally wrong about my analysis.

 

[baudib1]

River bet is weak, I agree. I put him on a T or some pocket pair.

I guess questions are, should I raise/fold the turn? I gave my reasons for not doing it but that's probably not the right thing. how much to raise on river?

 

[WurlyQ]

That's a very draw ish board. I raise the turn to chase away draws.

I think that you're most likely good and you value bet the river. What's the point of shoving here? You lose to a set (their betting makes sense if they think you chased a diamond draw though this is highly unlikely looking at the amounts) and you get nothing if they have a mediocre hand.

In the event that you raised the turn and get called, yes, you probably shove on the river.

 

[Inscore77]

Board really isnt that scary, as he would have to get runner runner to complete any draw. That said, I still think he has hit a weak Q or the T

 

[orangepeeleo]

I think ur Queens are good here, altho i would have cbet the flop, i think raising preflop and checking on the flop is quite weak, you were one of the last to act and no-one's shown any sort of strength, that flop most likely missed their hands, the guy to act after you should def have bet out at that when you never.

On the turn i'd have raised as well, with the 2 diamonds out, you've still got 2 people to act after you and by flat calling there your just giving them better odds to try and draw out on you, the villain limped in ep so i think he's maybe drawing to the flush, has a pair of tens, possibly KT, or maybe even 89, for a loose player these are all hands he'd limp with .

On the river just pop in a little raise, givin him good enough odds to look you up, he is the big stack as well so prob more likely to call a little raise like that, i think ur ahead