Tough Spot on Flop w/ AK

[cjay142]

Little bit of background, about 20 spots away from the money in a turbo satellite tourney, have been playin TAG. UTG+1 has been open limping regardless of position and betting every flop. Most of the time he's flipped over Ax or 9 10s but on occasion he's open limped w/ hands like JJ, QKs in early pos.

Have hidden the results, but I'm more concerned with the move on the flop. Please reply advice, comments, questions. Thanks

Stacks:
* Hero with 5175
* BTN with 7180
* SB with 2570
* BB with 3060
* UTG with 5580
* UTG+1 with 5167
* MP1 with 2250
* MP2 with 4770
* MP3 with 5459

Blinds:150/300
Site: full tilt poker
* * Dealt to Hero:A♣ K♠
* * Sklansky group 2
Preflop:
* * 1 players fold.
* * UTG+1 calls [300]
* * 3 players fold.
* * Hero raises to 1,000
* * 3 players fold.
* * UTG+1 calls [700]
* * Total folds this street: 7
* * Potsize: 2450
Flop: J♦ 4♦ 4♥
* * UTG+1 bets [900] Hero raises to 1,800
* * UTG+1 calls [900]
* * Potsize: 6050
Turn: 3♦
* * UTG+1 bets [2,342, and is all in] Hero calls [2,342]


The results have been hidden.

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[slycbnew]

We're operating under the assumption that Villain is cbetting air and Hero's ahead of Villain's range here - don't want to see a turn that knocks me off the hand, so calling the flop bet isn't my favorite option. I personally would fold the flop, even loose players hit the flop once in a while and I've lost too often with an unimproved big slick, but I don't think it's necessarily a mistake to go with your read.

However, the flop raise puts over half your stack in, pretty much committing you to calling a turn bet - if you're going to raise on the flop, would shoving be better? If Villain's on pure air, no more thinking required, and you might fold out top pair or the fd - and chances are you're ultimately going to put all your money in on the turn or river anyhow.

 

[Melkor]

Yeah, not good play. Firstly, this guy has a pretty wide range clearly from opening UTG+1. Have you seen how he reacts to raises after doing this? If he always calls a raise after limping then his range stays similar. However, if he has folded in the past to a raise after limping then his range can be narrowed a bit to pockets and high face cards.

I also have to say that you have made the assumption that because he is playing real bad preflop that he continues to bet with nothing postflop. That is very often not the case. Some opponents just love to see flops with loads of hands from everywhere for cheap and play fit or fold, give up if they miss, bet if they hit. What have you seen from villain so far? Has he been betting all flops or few after he has hit? What cards have you seen him show? If you believe villain is taking a stab at this pot then you cannot do what you did and that is minraise. It is not a good play at all in this situation. He simply will not fold anything, even complete air, to a minraise, the odds are just too good. If he is trying to hit diamonds, like I think he might have been, it is a total no brainer. If you decide to try and bluff raise this flop then the ONLY move to make is a shove over the bet. If he has diamonds then you are in a bit of a race.

Being honest though, I don't think a flop move is right at all. A jack is absolutely in his range here, as are two suited diamonds and a middle pair. What are we trying to fold out here? He may show up with a random bluff but I don't think a donkbet bluff is too likely. At best we are being called by the KQd and even then we are only a 54% favourite. At worst we see KJ, QJ, JT and 66-TT and we are a lot of trouble, a 75% dog. Let it go on the flop and find a better situation to get the money in.

Your turn play, however, is a complete disaster. Diamonds got there, the only hand we may have been ahead of on the flop. He shoves and is screaming he has ace high absolutely crushed. Getting your whole stack in on ace high here is a terrible outcome and the reason we are in this spot is the minraise on the flop.

Let the hand go on the flop.

 

[EvilEmperor]

The flop raise was total spew. Villain could easily have J here. Medium PP's will feature heavily here as well. You have Ace high and are only 20 spots away from cash. Let it go. The closer you get to the cash in satellites the earlier you need to exit weak hands. Let others take unnecessary risks and bust themselves out. Shoving pf with AK would have been better play than this IMO.

 

[cardsDontMatter]

We never think about getting in the money, we are thinking about the final table. You have 17bbs left, your M is 11... oh... and it's a TURBO.

You have no room to play poker, push preflop. You've needed chips since you sank below 25bbs... maybe you just lost a good portion of your stack.. too..

As played, fold the flop if he leads out, push if he checks and make him pay for the diamonds if that's his line.. which he flop bet seems to illustrate.

 

[cjay142]

I agree I probably either should have folded or shoved on the flop, it was a weak move but luckily it worked out. He ended up showin Q9o and I took it down when he missed the river. Probably should have mentioned I was pretty sure he was bettin w/ air on the flop, in which case i should have shoved and put him to the decision

Thanks for the comments

 

[EvilEmperor]

We never think about getting in the money, we are thinking about the final table. You have 17bbs left, your M is 11... oh... and it's a TURBO.

You have no room to play poker, push preflop. You've needed chips since you sank below 25bbs... maybe you just lost a good portion of your stack.. too..

As played, fold the flop if he leads out, push if he checks and make him pay for the diamonds if that's his line.. which he flop bet seems to illustrate.

We do think about getting in the money when it's a satellite because all prizes are first prizes (apart from any left over cash given out to those who just miss out which is usually miniscule).

 

[manalva]

Hi.

Like Melkor said, when you see a bad flop and your opponent rise i think is better to fold. But the question i have here is: when you have to rise with a AK? because ends in a lottery. I know everything is a lottery because your opponent may have AA, but do you have a rule or something like that that says "never rise more than X if you don't have this kind of game" ?

Days ago i saw a porcentage card list, but it seems to me like something that depends too much of lucky. I think in poker, with limited cards, we can built something more concrete that something that depends of lucky.

I hope you understand my poor english, sorry.

Bye.
manalva

 

[JoeDi]

If not on the flop by the turn you should have folded .. Its a bit of a stretch that any decent poker player would go all in on a bluff.. Happens a lot but given he had only about half his chips committed i think him committing the other half on a bluff would be a stretch.. Not to mention he virtually puts you all in with nothing.. AJ KJ QJ suited or any pocket pair woops you..

 

[soonerdel]

i would have jammed the pot pre flop. OP says still 20 away from from seat and its a turbo satellite.

 

[HNRocketS]

obviously with his betting history he could have a complete air ball or the world. You need to be able to fold AK when your playing a player like this especially if it will cripple you or cost you your tournament life.