Tough spot with 88, what do you think?

[J0nSn0]

so I'm playing 0.55$ bi tourney on pokerstars, I have 60000$ stack, vilain has about 108000$ and the blinds are 2000$ and 1000$. Vilain min-raise UTG (and usually when someone raise UTG he's very strong but I've seen many players raise with anything UTG in these tournements), everyone folds to me in CO with 88 and I call and everybody else folds so we go heads-up to the flop. The flop is not that scary, just one overcard a queen, vilain bets pot size... ok, wow!! . Maybe he has a queen, something like AQ, KQ or an overpair... but that big bet though? trying to scare me away... He can't have a set because he wouldn't want me to go, can"t have JJ, TT or 99 because the Q didn't scare him at all, besides I know I can beat AK AJ AT and any smaller pair. So I decide to call to see if he'll slowdown and also I might get help on the turn. the turn is another small card and he fires again almost the size of the pot, at this point if I call this I'll have 3bb left and I don't want to shove and regret it but then again he could have KQ trying to protect it from an Ace... So, I folded, maybe I should've raised him on the flop to see his reaction... What do you think???

 

[ConDeck]

Fold or jam flop if we have reads to pot size bet here. Folding is definitely optimal here most of the time though. When we flat IP with 88 we are essentially setmining and our tournament life is so important at this stage.

 

[ribaric]

I think fold. Even thought you had 88 and there was only Q bigger he could have 99 or any bigger pair like you said and also QJ KQ AQ or maybe floped 2 small pairs. In any way you loose and thats very risky so i think you have made the right decision.

 

[dontquit]

I don't understand. You called off 54k....and had 6 k left and folded? I'm sorry, when I have put that much of my stack in, the rest has to go in. You crippled yourself and didn't see the outcome. Could easily just have been trying to push you off a hand. It's a 60c tourney right? I say...get it all in!... Hmm.. after reading this hand better, I see what you did. You called min raise (4k) Called pot (11k). He bet pot again. Would have left you with 3bb. You folded. I'm not sure what is going on here. Did you feel you were ahead preflop? You missed, but I'm guessing he missed also. Another pot bet from him and you call? What was your plan on the turn? Jam? What if he had AK? Could that be his range? I'm guessing he didn't have an underpair and he didn't hit the small cards on the board. Did you pay much attention to him before this hand? Was he loose/tight? That could guide you here. Looks to me like you had no plan except hitting a set. Could have raised the flop bet. That would have given you info. My recommendation is to develop a plan for the hand based on the info that you have. Good luck.

 

[J0nSn0]

Thank you all for your thoughts on the hand. dontquite, I didn't have any info on the guy, he was new on the table at that time and I didn't commit a lot of my chips, I folded on the turn when I had about 44000 left. And I still think that I should've raised on the flop... anyway thanks!

 

[xmarus91]

Yea I feel you can play pocket 88 in a better spot, however in monster what is his range.. I really think AQ KQ or even KK QQ is a scenario, a lot a flop set is possible.. maybe.. Stack size as well.. He doesn't have 100k because he never has it. So I would assume just stack size alone your odds are just increasingly showing your behind. Now the fact he put such a big bet just means he hoping you hit that flop as well.. so yea Fold and your still in the tournament.

 

[joe777]

If the villain is a nit -fold pre.Even if you are set mining the odd are not looking pretty good.

 

[NKGB13]

good fold. He probably had KK, I would really not even call on the flop. But that's probably because I'm a fish!

 

[hffjd2000]

Agree fold or jam on flop but agree more on the former.

He is consistent so far and believe he has a hand.

If we continue surely he will fire again.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

I don't understand. You called off 54k....and had 6 k left and folded? I'm sorry, when I have put that much of my stack in, the rest has to go in. You crippled yourself and didn't see the outcome. Could easily just have been trying to push you off a hand. It's a 60c tourney right? I say...get it all in!... Hmm.. after reading this hand better, I see what you did. You called min raise (4k) Called pot (11k). He bet pot again. Would have left you with 3bb. You folded. I'm not sure what is going on here. Did you feel you were ahead preflop? You missed, but I'm guessing he missed also. Another pot bet from him and you call? What was your plan on the turn? Jam? What if he had AK? Could that be his range? I'm guessing he didn't have an underpair and he didn't hit the small cards on the board. Did you pay much attention to him before this hand? Was he loose/tight? That could guide you here. Looks to me like you had no plan except hitting a set. Could have raised the flop bet. That would have given you info. My recommendation is to develop a plan for the hand based on the info that you have. Good luck.

sounds like he folded the turn when facing a pot sized bet. he was saying IF he called the turn he would only have 3bb left (which I don't think is quite right, I think he would have like 6bb left but the effect is the same).

so effective stacks are 30bb. facing an UTG raise I like the flat with 88 in the CO. his range is strong so re-raising is a bad a idea. and there's still a lot of hands in his UTG raising raise that you are doing fine against. I don't agree with whoever said you are only calling with 88 to set mine. flopping a set is 1 way to win this hand...you have to have other ways you can win or else you should just fold preflop because you're not deep enough to set mine. I agree with whoever said if he is a nit just fold. But vs. most players who are going to open AJ+ and 66+ UTG (or something like that) 88 does fine especially when you have position.

on a Q hi flop I'm not looking to commit too many chips. if he Cbets something like half the pot and he has a high Cbet% then I might float 1 street in position and see what devlops. But he leads into you for a pot sized bet? I'd just let it go on the flop.

You asked if you should raise on the flop to see his reaction? NO! there is no value in that. A flop raise is pot committing for you, and will only get called the times you are beat. it makes it really easy for him to play a hand like 66 or AK perfectly as well as AA,KK,QQ,AQ,KQ. there's a tiny possibility he might lay down 99,TT,JJ if you jammed the flop but it's not worth the risk. And you're just turning your hand into a bluff....which is not necessarily a bad thing, but vs. his UTG range it will generally turn out badly for you to be raising his pot sized bet right here.

As played on the turn you can definitely be sure he means business and is never folding. so at this point you are 100% bluff catching. I repeat YOU CAN ONLY BEAT BLUFFS. how many bluffs will he have in his range here? not many. occasionally AK, but also many players will just shut down with AK when their Cbet fails. But even if he does have a hand like AK/AJ and you call and are correct villain still has some equity so you're not even guaranteed the pot the few times you are ahead.

good fold on the turn, but try to plug your leak of calling flop bets that are too big for the situation.