SnG (9), $3.30.

[JimmyBrizzy]

Well it kinda looks like a squeeze and is an awful lot to bet...what would you guys have done?

Stacks:
* MP2 with 3430
* CO with 1445
* BTN with 810
* SB with 1430
* BB with 980
* UTG with 2000
* UTG+1 with 2285
* MP1 with 1120

Blinds: 15/30
Site: pokerstars
* * Dealt to SB:8♠ 8♥
* * Sklansky group 4
Preflop:
* * 4 players fold.
* * CO raises 60 to 90
* * 1 players fold.
* * Hero calls [75]
* * BB raises 330 to 420

The cutoff folds and it is to me...

Poker Hand Converter By Cardschat.com Poker Forum

 

[vpb0i]

well, your probably up against a race here, AK AQ AJ A10, which are pretty standard hands to raise with going heads up, pretty much a all in or fold sitation, id call just cause he short stack might be making a move and its only 3 dollar buy in, wah was the result?

 

[Steveg1976]

Fold - it is very early in the S&G and the BB is not really under pressure yet from the blinds but has put in half his stack letting you know he isn't folding. without a very solid read this is a bluff you should fold.

 

[JimmyBrizzy]

Fold - it is very early in the S&G and the BB is not really under pressure yet from the blinds but has put in half his stack letting you know he isn't folding. without a very solid read this is a bluff you should fold.

Point taken. I really thought about this one a while and ended up pushing myself. He ended up calling with 75 eventually. The only read I had on him was that he had been in a couple of hands and had just lost one for around 500 or so to an all-in (him having AJ, the other being a short stack).

My reasoning was that

1) He could just be pissed off and be in a tilty "f*** it" kinda mood from the previous hand,

2) he could be attempting a very expensive squeeze play, or

3) he could have even limped from UTG with an under pair hoping to just see the flop and it ended up turning into a steal opportunity for him.

I figured JJ+ seemed a little unlikely, but not impossible and that if it was indeed AQ+ then at the worst I was slightly ahead.

I know I ended up making the right read, but would people still agree that this type of play is -EV in the long run this early in a tourney (w/o a read at all...or even with a read)?

 

[KtarzanOB]

88's

VS

44+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s,ATo+,KJo+,QJo,T9o,97o+,86o+,75o+,65o

Pokerstove calculates 88's as having 59% equity against this range which has some of the hands you put him on and more.

Obviously against the smaller SC and underpairs you are a huge favourite. But against overcards you are flipping.

Lets say your read of not putting him on TT+ your equity jumps to 63.9%.
And removing AK's and Aq's your equity jumps to 65%.

Pot is 520 he has 650 behind which he is not folding so lets pretend his all in for 980 and it woud cost you 890 to call.

So pot is 90+90+980= 1160
1160 to 890 pot odds so your getting a great price to call against his range. So it is obviously +EV if it were a cash game.

Your left with 450 if you call and lose. Which is enough to survive considering the blinds are 15/30 and you will be on the btn but you will be relying on a good run of cards.

If you win have 2500 which gives you room to breathe but doesnt guarentee you a top 3 finish.

If you fold your down 90 chips and fine.
But in SNG's and tournaments +EV is more hazy.:joyman:
There is probably SNG software to calculate this or some math.

If you call against the range we put him(which was optimistcally weak but correct) on you have a 35% chance of losing and relying on a lot of luck to comeback after. If you win your comfortable, but if you fold your still comfortable. It is better to wait and take risks when closer to the money in SNG's.

I would say its a fold at this early stage of an sng but probably a call in a MTT. But there is probably somebody on this forum with a better idea of what is correct.

Sorry for the OTT answer regarding a $3 SNG.

 

[JimmyBrizzy]

Ah, now that seems to be an answer I was looking for. Yeah I would agree with the above. I think this is leaning toward a -EV when all is said and done.

I was really close to folding, but for whatever reason it just didn't add up. If he hadn't been playing on the edge of a loose/tilty style, it wasn't in the close form of a squeeze play, and was against better opponents (this is the micro's after all), I probably would have folded.

I just still think that 400+ is a really outrageous number and just doesn't make much sense.... oh well it worked out, but those are my opinions, feel free to add.