Satty Tough Spot

[theskillzdatklls]

Obv pressure is all on me. chef just paid his taxes and happpy is ahead of me before blinds hit him --> me.

Here is the real deal: 7 people left, 6-8 = $6, 1-5 players = $55. M = $2.8k (massive)

Bubbling sucks hardcore, but then again getting blinded out would suck as well.. and considering basic sat bubble strategy --> all pressure on each respective weakest guy until bubble bursts.

Did i make the correct (losing) play all things considered? I'm hugely bummed because I'm on one of my largest losing streaks ever and winning $55 would have made up a large chunk of that which I've lost.

pokerstars Game #18346061218: Tournament #92865097, $5.50+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level XII (800/1600) - 2008/06/24 - 02:43:16 (ET)
Table '92865097 4' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: skllzdatklls (8118 in chips)
Seat 2: bar u gal (12096 in chips)
Seat 3: chefwear (7555 in chips)
Seat 4: justJIMok (14585 in chips)
Seat 6: viking pete (16131 in chips)
Seat 8: 1964bingo (13320 in chips)
Seat 9: happpyphish (9195 in chips)
skllzdatklls: posts the ante 160
bar u gal: posts the ante 160
chefwear: posts the ante 160
justJIMok: posts the ante 160
viking pete: posts the ante 160
1964bingo: posts the ante 160
happpyphish: posts the ante 160
justJIMok: posts small blind 800
viking pete: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to skllzdatklls [Kc Jc]
1964bingo: folds
happpyphish: folds
skllzdatklls: raises 6358 to 7958 and is all-in
bar u gal: folds
chefwear: folds
justJIMok: calls 7158
viking pete: folds
*** FLOP *** [6s 8s 9c]
*** TURN *** [6s 8s 9c] [9d]
*** RIVER *** [6s 8s 9c 9d] [3d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
justJIMok: shows [Qd Kh] (a pair of Nines)
skllzdatklls: shows [Kc Jc] (a pair of Nines - lower kicker)
justJIMok collected 18636 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 18636 | Rake 0
Board [6s 8s 9c 9d 3d]
Seat 1: skllzdatklls showed [Kc Jc] and lost with a pair of Nines
Seat 2: bar u gal folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: chefwear (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: justJIMok (small blind) showed [Qd Kh] and won (18636) with a pair of Nines
Seat 6: viking pete (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: 1964bingo folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: happpyphish folded before Flop (didn't bet)

 

[wislim]

This seems pretty standard here. Your shove with KcJc vs 3 random hands on the bubble is a +ev play. And based on stack sizes someone behind you needs to wake up with a huge hand to call you. You played it right.

 

[Irexes]

No need to push there in my view. In this kind of situation you can cope with tiny M stacks because you could "win" the tournament with 1 chip. In a normal structure shove away but here I'd gamble on a better situation presenting itself or at least a few more hands to give people a chance to bust.

 

[viking999]

When I started off looking at this hand, I thought it was best to fold. I've changed my mind, and I think that a shove is best. I've played the blind off game (aka "Who can lose last?") before, and it's a loser if you're a good player. There are three short stacks who are all likely waiting for the others to bust. Everyone else is sitting on their chips expecting to coast to a win. If the short stacks just play tightly, each one has about a 1/3 chance of making it. It's literally total luck. Taking down the blinds and antes even just once puts you at a huge advantage against them. Also it's an ideal spot to steal because you shouldn't get called except by a monster. I'm absolutely astonished that you got called by KQ. That guy's call is many times worse than your shove, because losing would make him the short stack.

BTW, this analysis only applies if your opponents are half smart and playing reasonable satellite strategy. If they're loose, then shoving here is a bad idea, because then a very large percentage of hands that have you beat will call.

 

[dj11]

To me its a raise or fold situation, 'M' demands one or the other, and those aren't bad cards to raise with.

 

[Inscore77]

Right play for a tourney, for the satty though just fold

 

[theskillzdatklls]

To the people saying "fold" I just don't understand why - what are the chances I survive before TWO people bust before me ? What are the chances that as I get in worse position / chip stack size that I receive cards better to deal with? (by the way, I also HATE KJ, one of my least favorite hands in poker yet I still felt it was more than necessary here)

THe ultimate thing - that someone said earlier and I thought about after posting this, is *why the ***** did someone risk 2/3 of his stack to call me with KQ? - one of the most unnecessary and -ev plays he could have done. He was super lucky to have me dominated but if I happened to hold any ace-rag he would have been a 4x% dog then making him an all but certain $6 victim if he lost.. meanwhile folding everything including AA makes him an almost certain candidate for $55.

The other thing is: on the $2.20 100k sattys w/ 36 people, i can have "1 chip" left with 7 people left on the bubble and people there are stupid enough to go all in and others are stupid enough to call. This group wasn't that stupid.. at least from what I could tell.

EDIT:
DJ11 - I couldn't disagree with you more here, raise / fold ??? By raising I'd invest half my stack, and folding to a reraise doesn't make any sense because by then I would have more than the odds to call on almost any hand situation. Even folding, after a raise the blinds would wipe me out in one swing dead. In this situation its push / fold. Raising does not make sense for any reason whatsoever unless if you wanted to slo-play rockets or something. Could you please explain your reasoning here? Thanks.

 

[Inscore77]

Just saying fold because you can win the satty by not even playing another hand, let alone a marginal one like KJ. You're the short stack right now, but I've seen many times where the big stacks go at it against each other, and one of them end up losing. The same with middle and the other lower stacks. You're play is not bad here, but this close to the tickets I would just fold

 

[Irexes]

Let's look at what you are trying to achieve by pushing.

It is not to get called based on the strength of your hand. As agreed above the calling range crushes you with KQ at the bottom end of it. Most pairs AJ (possibly), AQ, AK are calling but absolutely nothing you dominate is. So if you get called you bust a lot and double infrequently (usually against coinflips v underpairs).

Therefore your intention is to pick up the blinds. So we need to calculate the % chance of not getting called and then the impact on your survival that the blinds and antes will have. This then needs to be compared to the % chances of getting a better hand in the time you have left and the chances of other busting out.

Ultimately if you push with KJo you may as well push with a much wider range as you are making a play for the blinds. Really you are just looking for two live cards if called and there is absolutely no need to do this until you have to. I understand the desire to keep your fate in your own hands, but you folding is an active decision in poker as much as shoving. Honestly this is an instafold for me in any sat situation including the bubble for the $215 Sunday tournies.

 

[viking999]

DJ11 - I couldn't disagree with you more here, raise / fold ??? By raising I'd invest half my stack, and folding to a reraise doesn't make any sense because by then I would have more than the odds to call on almost any hand situation. Even folding, after a raise the blinds would wipe me out in one swing dead. In this situation its push / fold. Raising does not make sense for any reason whatsoever unless if you wanted to slo-play rockets or something. Could you please explain your reasoning here? Thanks.

I don't presume to know exactly what DJ is thinking, but I believe he meant push or fold. I don't think he's suggesting a non-push raise.

The main reason I think it's a push is that the next blinds (which are soon) will cripple your fold equity in future hands. After the blinds pass you only have about 3xBB, which puts the BB in roughly "call with any two cards" territory. So you're pretty much resigned to a 1/3 chance of winning against the other two short stacks, because they have as much a chance of picking up a hand as you do. Under normal satellite circumstances, I believe you will take this pot down at least 75% of the time. Their calling ranges shouldn't be any looser than TT+, AK, AQ, and maybe even not that loose. Your opponents should be playing verrrry tightly with regards to calling. I also think that winning the blinds this one hand will improve your chances of winning a seat up to at least 50%. You won't have quite as many chips as the other two short stacks combined (truly a 50% gamble), but you will increase your ability to take the blinds again (for example bullying chefwear's BB when you're on the button) and you also put pressure on the other medium stacks so they don't think they can just sit on their stacks. Chipping up as a short stack generates more action, and thus increases the chances of other players busting.

However, reads on the players can trump all this. Apparently you were raising into at least one loose fish, which is bad with a hand like KJs. Also, if the table is LAG, then bigger stacks might be shoving their chips in the pot when they shouldn't be. If that's the case, then you can likely fold your way to a seat.

 

[p0K35]

...did someone risk 2/3 of his stack to call me with KQ?

Because they knew you would stack off with KJ? Your 'play' is a little questionable here, so give your opponent some credit, they in same spot as you.

Who goes allin with KJs, and complains when they get called by better cards, short stack like? At best, steal the blinds move, right? didn't really want a call here...

I don't see much of an issue here, desperate times call for desperate actions. Interesting that the whole final tbl is short stacked at those blinds.

It's tourney poker.

 

[theskillzdatklls]

It's tourney poker.

exactly the point... IF IT WAS TOURNY poker. tourny poker sure take risks against desperate low card quality short stacks all day long if it helps you win. it does not matter here, this is a satty. 5th place = 1st place. he has a chip stack where making almost any call is -ev. He would be unlucky, all things considered (since he is in 2nd position), if he folded every hand and did not win. From an outside perspective when I see a semi-desperate low stack pushing all in from MP there is a pretty solid range I put him on: K9+, Ax, lowpp+. Notice that with that range many sets of cards put KQ as a dog.

in tourny poker there is nothing wrong with calling with semi-quality cards, but as a questionable big stack (i say this because his big stack is not really that much of a lead) one never plays anything but the most premium or nothing at all, because it does not help the situation.