Sat, top 14 make it, 16 left - Bubble, should I play this hand?

[slycbnew]

This is a PS silver star FPP sat to the monthly $100K freeroll. Top 14 make it, 15th gets 650FPP. I'm 14th out of the remaining 16 players.

Preflop raises have generally been uncontested for the last two + orbits - two orbits ago, there were 19 players remaining. Villain has been fairly solid, 20/11, I'm putting him on AQ+, 88+ for this raise from that position, and at this point in the tourney. I'm clearly a favorite against this range - even against the high end of that range, since he doesn't need this pot at all - at any other point in the tourney, or in a standard tourney payout structure, this is a no-brainer shove.

My question - is there any justification to fold here, being right on the bubble (top 14 go on to the freeroll)? If I win this hand, I can basically fold my way to the tourney - but is there a justification for folding and praying two other people bust before I blind out?

Blinds 500/1000, 100 ante

Stacks:
* MP1 with 25999
* MP2 with 8857
* CO with 13211
* BTN with 9234
* SB with 6805
* BB with 7369
* UTG with 8340
* UTG+1 with 20972


Blinds: 500/1000
Site: pokerstars
* * Dealt to BB:K♠ K♦
* * Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
* * 1 players fold.
* * UTG+1 raises 2000 to 3000
* * 5 players fold.
* * Hero ???

 

[naruto_miu]

Personally I would fold this hand, just to be on the safe side of things? I guess my theory on the fold would be the fact that if you fold this hand, and 1 of the 2 remaining short stacks loses, then you'll A)Be in the money B) you would be 14th out of 15 left, or 13th depending on other tables and ppls actions on those tables.

So final answer fold

 

[Irexes]

If you shove you probably win 3 out of 4*. Let's assume you then make the money every time.

If you fold are you going to make it 3 out 4 times?

Probably not, though I'd like to know the stacksizes of the two guys below you. Right on the bubble people tighten right up and it's likely at least one of them will double up.

I'd shove and take my chance that way. QQ I'd think long and hard. JJ I'd probably fold.

(*substitute other numbers if you think his range makes it more or less than 3 out of 4)

 

[slycbnew]

3 out of 4 - golden, thanks Rex. I don't think my chances of folding this and hoping the other two bust out first were as good as 3 out of 4. Great perspective. Assuming I fold the SB next hand, all three of the short stacks would have virtually identical stacks. If even one of the other two had been substantially shorter, I would've folded even the KK's and agree with Naruto on this.

FWIW, I shoved and lost to a flopped set of 99's - it couldn't hurt him to call my shove, he's still going to make the tourney even if I double up, so I understand why he called - but with cards exposed, the only hand I think I wouldn't be happy shoving against here is AA using this perspective, I think.

 

[Yeti]

Presuming you have the 8k stack, I actually think his calling your shove was a bad play on his part.

Even though you were on the bubble, I believe you did the right thing by shoving. You had a very good chance of winning anyway (with the exception of AA, but you can generally assume he wouldn't have that), and if he folded you would have almost certainly been able to sit out all the way into the seats. In my view at least, you did the right thing here - though if you had more chips I would advocate folding.

 

[wesmi]

As mentioned above. The odds of loosing this hand was very small. One aspect is though that the blinds were just 1K. Folding this hand would have left you with a 6K stack. I would say that this is not so bad with just 2 players to go.

Regardless of the aspect that if you last a few minutes longer you´d probably be in the money, i still think that i would have put myself all-in.

 

[gnk2727]

I'd have to say that its definitely profitable to shove this hand in ur position. I know I would. Especially now that Rex brought up the fact that 3/4 times you win.........

 

[silverslugger33]

Shove. I can't imagine folding this hand here. In a tournament, play for the win, don't play for the money. Get your chips in the middle.

Edit: Just realized that 14th is the same as 1st (or so it appears to me). If that's the case, just fold every hand. You're in a fine chip position, and you'll get into top 14 without playing another hand.

 

[Jillychemung]

This is a PS silver star FPP sat to the monthly $100K freeroll. Top 14 make it, 15th gets 650FPP. I'm 14th out of the remaining 16 players.

You're in a fine chip position, and you'll get into top 14 without playing another hand.

Sometimes we just don't understand what we read. OP is already in 14th with only 16 left, how in the heck will folding every hand help OP outlast the 2 stacks behind him?????

 

[nevadanick]

Shove. I can't imagine folding this hand here. In a tournament, play for the win, don't play for the money. Get your chips in the middle.

Edit: Just realized that 14th is the same as 1st (or so it appears to me). If that's the case, just fold every hand. You're in a fine chip position, and you'll get into top 14 without playing another hand.

^^^ this. 14th is same as 1st. Fold, fold, fold. Rex is a far better player than myself when playing for top spots, but we're only talking about making it 2 more spots for a 'win'. As many times as I've been in this kind of spot, I would venture that I could make 14th 99 out of 100.

Sometimes we just don't understand what we read. OP is already in 14th with only 16 left, how in the heck will folding every hand help OP outlast the 2 stacks behind him?????

VERY easy. We also do not have the stack info at the second table. That would help, but prolly wouldn't change my 'fold to 14th' opinion. For one, another shorty (current UTG) is coming into the blinds. The current MP2, BTN and SB are also shorties. Sure, I would facing the SB, but then I'm free for a full orbit. MP2, BTN and SB are not.

There is also human nature. Somewhere in the next few orbits, at least one (or more) of the mid-stacks will look down and see a monster, and BET IT. They also stand to win and take out one of the remaining shorties, OR they will bust themselves in Rex's 1 in 4 losses column.

Poker players, as a rule, cannot stand to fold those monsters. Just look at all the replies above that said 'shove it'. Those are the players also in the other 15 seats.

Why would I want to tangle with the table chip leader? No cajona's? Maybe not, but in a Sat with 2 to go, my own extensive experience folding to a Sat win ( ) is more like 3 of 4 if I shove and 3.99 of 4 if I fold my way around. There is almost no way I can bust out before 14 if I fold around, while any bet puts my stack at risk, especially pre-flop.

There are even situations where other shorties are also hesitant to bet, the situation is just right, and I get a walk in one of the remaining BB's I will face. It happens, and is not uncommon.

Sure, poker is 'gambling'. Is this really any different? I'm 'gambling' that I can win my Sat seat by NOT playing. I'll take the 3.99 over the 3 in 4 chance anytime and let at least 2 of the "gotta shove it" players bust out.

 

[Jillychemung]

but in a Sat with 2 to go, my own extensive experience folding to a Sat win ( ) is more like 3 of 4 if I shove and 3.99 of 4 if I fold my way around. There is almost no way I can bust out before 14 if I fold around

So at what point do you start playing hands again? When you are in 15th? When you 1st drop to 16th? When your stack reaches xBBs?

In my experience, with less than 3 full tables of remaining players, rarely have I seen a bubble player (last ITM and lower) get ITM using this strategy. Now with a decent amount of BBs (10-15) and 3+ full tables, yes I have seen it done.

 

[darkremixx]

on the bubble, ive learned not to take too amny uneciessary risks. Just eat the hand and wait for your chance to flop a monster.

 

[drizzt]

The problem I see is that, while you will be out of the blinds soon, you're still in the ballpark of the other low stacks at your table. UTG loses 1700 (assuming blinds don't go up) when he gets hit with blinds, leaving him at about where you are. So the question I have is, what happens if the other people play "stay alive" and try to fold into cashing? I tend to see more people who are low stack at this point fold hoping two others go, and it seems those other two are thinking the same thing.

 

[vanquish]

you pretty much have to jam given that you're 14th out of 16 and the other stack sizes of the shorties

 

[THGE]

don't fold

You are 14th. There are only two players behind you. If you fold in this hand, you will be SB in the next hand and you have to pay more 1000 and problably you will be 15th. Now, if you pay and win this hand, you will stay in a good position in tourney.
Pay this hand and win this hand.
Fold others hand.

 

[garykelleher]

fold

since two people to go to the money, and you are 14th..you could be under pressure to double up or get some chips....but you want to pick up blinds and nothing else....3/4 times you win isnt good enough at this stage considering 7/8 of the field are making it...your better off folding it......if 1st place was a lot more than 14th then its all about getting your chips. ie. push. but since you are gonig for anywhere in the top 14 just wait for a better position

 

[silverslugger33]

Sometimes we just don't understand what we read. OP is already in 14th with only 16 left, how in the heck will folding every hand help OP outlast the 2 stacks behind him?????

Sometimes we attack people's comments without considering that they know what they're talking about. The hero is in the BB this hand. That means they are in the SB next hand. Therefore, after the next hand, they'll have 6 consecutive hands where they lose nothing but antes, which really isn't very much. There are at least a few people who will dip below the hero soon, unless they win one of the next couple pots. UTG will be lower in 2 hands, and MP2 will be behind a couple hands after that. Unless one of the people currently behind the hero catches up, the hero is in 12th, only needing to get in the top 14. As a result, they only need to outlast 2 people, and there will be 4 behind them.

 

[viking999]

If you're folding KK in 14/16, you're not favored to make the top 14. If you're folding every hand, they individually have a better shot with their shorter stacks, because they're going to be playing good poker. You're going to be playing bad poker. This is a super tight bubble, so they may be taking down some easy chips while you sit on you laurels. So I think this is a must shove, considering it pretty much gives you a 75% chance of getting a seat, which folding every hand does not.

 

[jrmonty]

push now no doubt, the two other players double up then what? you get blinded to death and ended up being forced all in with two random cards .

 

[Poker Orifice]

Yah a tough spot for sure.. I feel for ya. I'm sure you had taken all things into consideration,... knowing it's an auto-call from bigstack, etc.
Dilemma.... near 100% chance of cashing 'if' you win the hand,.... ??% if you fold & wait.
Many times I've been in a spot like this. I've had better luck with folding, albeit tough to do. Did you have a coin handy nearby?

 

[IMNER]

PUSH, every time, you have a made hand.
I would rather have my destiny in my own hand than rely on others. He made a standard raise and would definitely fold to a push from MP1, of course he will likely call but you will win 78% of the time in a heads up.

 

[VerbalKint]

You have to push in my opinion. I`ve tried the insta-fold theory amd insta-folded my way to being the bubble boy. You get good cards, play `em- plain and simple. You are nowhere near the fold- every- hand territory.