QQ bubble vs all in reraise

[Toad]

Villian is 22/11/2.5 but has been buying alot of pots lately.

Stacks:
* Hero with 2555
* BTN with 1620
* SB with 7475
* BB with 1850

Blinds: 75/150
Site: pokerstars
* * Dealt to UTG:Q♥ Q♣
* * Sklansky group 1
Preflop: Hero raises 450 to 600
* * 1 players fold.
* * SB raises 6875 to 7475 [ all-in ]
* * 1 players fold.
Hero ??

 

[c9h13no3]

It rhymes with "ball" and begins with the letter C. Or you could quit poker.

K, thread's done.

 

[Jagsti]

It rhymes with "ball" and begins with the letter C. Or you could quit poker.

K, thread's done.

Oh My Lordy, I love it.

Seriously, I'm real low atm, and that reply is sooo .

No offence o/p.

BTW it's a call for me.

 

[kevbowen]

it's a call

Making a call seems like the right thing to me, though I've been in that same scenario too many times and had it backfire as well. Last time in particular my QQ went up against A4 os and lost.

 

[c9h13no3]

Last time in particular my QQ went up against A4 os and lost.

So obviously getting all in as a 2:1 favorite was a bad decision.... >_<

 

[WVHillbilly]

It rhymes with "ball" and begins with the letter C. Or you could quit poker.

K, thread's done.

Coverall??????

 

[c9h13no3]

Coverall??????

No that's what the small blind's chipstack does. But good guess tho.

Don't worry, you'll figure out how to play poker one of these days.

 

[WVHillbilly]

No that's what the small blind's chipstack does. But good guess tho.

Don't worry, you'll figure out how to play poker one of these days.

Man, I sure hope you're right. I play 700 free rolls/week but I never seem to get any better? Seems like there is always some 84s playing suckout donkey that cracks my AA when I limp in from the button. Sucks.

 

[The Shrog]

I don't see how you cannot call here.

 

[Toad]

LOL...Everyone's a comedian...

I called, he flipped AKs and hit runner-runner for the flush.

The only reason I gave it a second thought is becase I was 2nd biggest stack and I had just gone out with QQ on the other SNG I was playing by making a similar call (although that guy flipped A8 and caught 2 8s on the flop)


Guess this is more of a rant thread than a 'what do I do?' thread.

Thanks for the responses.

 

[Steveg1976]

I have no idea about the pokertracker stats but you are a favorite over all hands except AA or KK so yeah it is an easy call. You got in as a favorite and got sucked out on not much you can do. Phil Gordon I think said "all I can do it get my chips in ahead after that is out of my hands" something that effect anyway.

 

[bwrobbel]

I would call. I would expect for the majority of the pre-flop re-raisers to be attempting to steal your raise, but they obviously aren't playing with horrible hands. I would definitely expect someone like that to at least have an ace, with a middle kicker, if not high connectors. I was in the same position today and called, I hit quads. Ha, but you never really know do you?

 

[c9h13no3]

While you do have a point, you do have a healthy chipstack, so it'd be nice to lose a short stack and get in the money first.

However, if this is a regular Sit & Go, then the pay difference between first place and the others is very different. Typically, first place gets half the prize pool, and the rest is divided up between 2nd & 3rd. So while you may want to play conservative, its generally better to get your chips in as a favorite and give yourself a shot at winning first.

Plus, if he is the large stack, you are his target. He's going to be picking on you, because you don't want to bust out before the short stacks. Thus he'll be stealing your blinds, and shoving over your raises to exploit this fact. Now is a great time to take a stand (obviously), and he'll have a wider range than normal against you.

So unless this is a satellite (which it isn't) you should call here.

 

[antizzle23]

you gotta have faith in the ladies man
cant be afraid there
u just gotta go with the great odds of knowing only 2 hands have u beat and call

 

[roundcat]

It's a tempting call but you do have the two shorter stacks to consider.

Your bubble factor against the large-stacked villain was 2.73, so even getting 2:1 odds, wouldn't you actually need more like 5.5:1 odds in order to consider it a positive equity play on the bubble?

If it was a cash game or earlier in the SNG a call would be a no-brainer. (I actually busted out of an SNG dead last earlier tonight in exactly that scenario, heh.)

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

if one of the shorties had half their stack they have or if you had a couple of k more chips this might be interesting, but in the actual hand it's a clear call.

 

[blankoblanco]

It rhymes with "ball" and begins with the letter C. Or you could quit poker.

what does (marc) chagall have to do with this?

 

[plainluck]

This happens to me so often I'm in denial that it would happen again. I tell myself I won't fall for it again and then I do. I can't seem to stop calling.

 

[roundcat]

Your bubble factor against the large-stacked villain was 2.73, so even getting 2:1 odds, wouldn't you actually need more like 5.5:1 odds in order to consider it a positive equity play on the bubble?

I may have calculated this wrong. A 2.73 bubble factor with 2:1 pot odds would give you .74:1 tournament odds. Does anyone else use tournament odds and bubble factors when determining this kind of call? Seems like most everyone is just saying it's a clear call. I'm still wrapping my head around some of this so would love other opinions on bubble factor coming into play.

 

[Toad]

I'm not familiar with bubble factor and tournament odds....

How do you calulate them and what do they mean?

 

[roundcat]

I'm not familiar with bubble factor and tournament odds....

How do you calulate them and what do they mean?

Bubble factors and tournament odds are discussed at length in the book Kill Everyone, which is a good read. The bubble factor uses ICM equity calculations and respresents the cost of losing an all-in confrontation vs. the gain from winning. It's calculated separately against each opponent based on the sizes of their stacks and the number of players left in the game.

There's an AutoHotKeys script that will calculate it for you:
BubbleFactorCalculator - overcards.com: The Poker Wiki

Basically, it says that it's not appropriate to use strict pot odds in bubble situations because they don't take into account your current expected equity in the tournament. Once you have your bubble factor you divide your pot odds by it to get your "tournament odds," which are said to be a more accurate measuring stick for positive tournament equity play.

Someone please correct me if I've misstated anything.

 

[Toad]

So if I'm reading this right my bubble factor against Stack 3 is 2.73.

PokerStove puts my odds at ~56% (assuming I knew he had AKs). So I take 56/2.73 and get 20.51%.

Hand 0: 56.056% 55.84% 00.21% 91796496 349212.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 43.944% 43.73% 00.21% 71886264 349212.00 { AKs, AKo }



So I need to be getting at least 5:1 on my money in order to make this call? (seems off but I'm probably doing it wrong)

 

[roundcat]

So I need to be getting at least 5:1 on my money in order to make this call? (seems off but I'm probably doing it wrong)

Yes, that's the gist of it. If you're using the ICM and bubble factor models, in a scenario like the above when your bubble factor is so high you can only call with ultra premium hands even if you know your opponent is pushing with a wide range. The loss of expected equity is much greater if you lose than the gain is if you win.

Some would argue that only the top spot really matters, and if that's all you're playing for you'd want to call more liberally and use standard pot odds rather than taking the bubble factor into consideration.

 

[Toad]

Cool program. Thanks!

 

[hegezsolt]

I think you can call. He hasnt got a big pair.He could have AK or AJ.
By me is a call with QQ. But did you called?