QJs MP

[RFirmino96]

You open from mid position with around 40 bbs and a very agressive player 3bets in the CO. Everybody folds and you 4bet the villain and he 5bet you. Would you 6 bet all in or fold in that situation? We still with 25bbs if we fold, in a mid stage at the tournament and 100 more to get ITM

 

[ph_il]

You open from mid position with around 40 bbs and a very agressive player 3bets in the CO. Everybody folds and you 4bet the villain and he 5bet you. Would you 6 bet all in or fold in that situation? We still with 25bbs if we fold, in a mid stage at the tournament and 100 more to get ITM

Assuming 40BBs is the effective stack, are you both min-raising with your bets, because what kind of betting are you doing if you're only down 15 BBs by the time you're thinking about 6bet shoving?

To simplify things, lets say your stack is 400 and blinds are 5/10

-From MP you raise 3x BB to 30
-CO 3bets 6x BB to 60
-You 4bet 12BBs to 120
-CO 5bets 24BBs to 240
-You...???

This is the only way I can see you still having 25BBs left if you considered folding after the 5bet.

After the 5bet, there is 450 in the pot and you have 250 behind. If you 6bet shove, villain has to call 10 chips to win a pot of 700. They're getting 7:1 to call with anything at that point. Calling is the same as shoving at this point; you have no fold equity and I highly doubt you're folding to any flop for 1BB.

While the flop is giving the villain great odds to call. You're getting about 2.8:1 odds to win the pot as well. However, it would all depend on villain's 3bet and 5bet hand ranges is.

If villain is:
-5betting with a small pair 22-1010, you're 49% to with odds at 2:1
-5betting with AK, you're 34% to win with odds at 2.9:1 (just slightly over what the pot odds are laying to you)
-5betting wih JJ, you're 32% to win with odds at 3.:1 (just slightly over)
-5betting with 1 over/1 under like A8, you're 43% to win with odds at 2.32

In these situations, you're not in terrible shape at this point. You're a huge underdog if villain is:
-5betting with 1 over + same card like AQ
-5betting with QQ-AA

And you're a favorite to win if villain is:
-5betting with unpaired undercards
-5betting under + same card like 10J or Q10

Unless villain is the most loose-aggressive player, at the point of the 5bet, we can probably remove a lot of the possible hands they probably wouldn't be 5betting with. We can probably safely assume they're not 5betting with:
-Small pairs
-Weak Aces and Kings, A6-A9, K8s, K9s
-Weak broadway hands, 10J, 10Q
-Small suited connectors
-Mid suited 1 gappers

And say they're likely 5betting with:
-Strong pairs, QQ + and maybe 1010-JJ
-Decent-to-strong Aces, A10s+
-Strong broadway hands, KQs
-Decent King hands: KJ+

So, it's very likely we're a huge underdog at this point and a call/shove would be very bad for us and a fold is our best option, but we're giving up 30% of our stack.

I think the QJ open from MP is Ok. Maybe with only 40BBs, you can fold QJ for a slightly better hand to open up with, but it would all depend on your table and how everyone else was playing. As played, I think it's a fold to a 3bet. Even if villain is 3betting wide and you don't think you could fold, I think maybe just flatting and re-evaluating after the flop is a better option than 4betting. 4bet shoving 37BBs is huge for just an extra 6BBs if villain folds, but if villain has a hand worth calling, we're risking 40BBs with very marginal holdings. Making a huge 4bet raise is practically the same thing as shoving. Villain either folds and we pick up an extra 6BBs or villain comes over the top and we're very likely pot committed with a marginal hand. At least 4bet shoving has some fold equity.

...Jeez, I type a lot.

 

[PokerFunKid]

Fold. A player can be aggresive, but that doesnt have to mean he's 5betting light. He can be aggresive with 3betting, but tight with 5 betting. He probably have you crushed.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

Definitely fold to the 5 bet. Reference philthy's excellent post above for the rationale and math. Even if you assume there is some pure air in his 5bet range, there has to be quite a bit of air before committing any more chips to the pot is profitable. Even if you think his range is polarized at 75% premium hands and 25% pure bluffs (probably way too high) you only have 42% equity. And honestly, I think you'll find that for most players they are 5bet bluffing less than 10% of the time here which gives you more like 35% equity. Just lay it down and move on.

What's an even more interesting question here, is what you should do when facing the 3bet vs a LAG OOP? 40bb stack is extremely tricky to play in these types of situations. I think you can make a good case both for folding and flatting. I think 4betting is the worst option. If he 3bets you on the small side like say 2.2-2.4x your raise, then I'd lean towards flatting provided you have decent post flop skills, and you have a line on his play. If he's been 3betting in position a lot, then I'd lean towards flatting because QJs has decent equity vs. a wide range.

But if he's the type of player who's been flatting a lot of raises in position and then applying pressure post flop, I'd just let this one go. Or if he has recently done this same thing to YOU specifically I would let this one go. All but the biggest maniacs understand that players will eventually make a stand against a bully....therefore he's more likely to have it this time if he does it to you 2 or 3 times in recent history.

You also MUST have a plan for the flop if you're going to flat. Provided effective stacks going to the flop are about 30bb and the pot will be roughly 15bb you'll have to "go to war" with your hand if you hit the flop, or flop a big draw. heads up vs. a LAG with 30bb effective is NOT the time to make big laydowns. If he is the type to Cbet a lot, I'd go for the check raise jam if you flop a nice draw. And if you flop top pair or 2nd pair with only 1 over, I'd check call the flop and get it in on the turn.

Sometimes you'll get it in on a J hi flop and he'll have AJ or QQ....that's just the way it goes when you're playing a LAG. Can't give them too much credit, and yet sometimes they WILL have it. That doesn't mean you played poorly if he happens to have it this time, so long as you put him on a range and had a plan the held up well against his total range.