£30 NLHE MTT: ££30 NLHE MTT: Aces cracked, was there an escape?

[benshouse99]

Hi there

Recently played this hand in a live tourney. Please let me know your thoughts, thanks

Blinds: 300/600
Ante: 50
8 handed
Hero dealt (Ad, Ah)

UTG:fold
+1: fold
+2 (15,000): call 600
+3(13,000): call 600
Hero(22,000): Raise to 2600
D- fold
SB(18,000)- call
BB-fold
+2- fold
+3- call

Three way to the flop, 8800 in pot:

Flop: 10dQhKc

+3- check
Hero- Bet 5000
sb- call
+3- All in, for 10,000 total

My thoughts: ugly flop, had to bet it. Now pot at 29000~, getting 6-1 on a call. I figured I had decent enough equity against all two pairs, low straights with redraw to the nut straight. Also, from what I had seen the sb was a bit of a calling station, so thought he could have any kind of pair.

So I shoved over the top, hoping to get rid of the small blind. Small blind snapped me off.

SB shows nut straight, AJ, other player had some Qx hand

Thoughts please? I feel like I was always behind on the flop after the call and shove, but then mathematically I feel it was the right thing to do in the long run.

ty

 

[X at Tripaces]

these are the flops i hate to see with aces, both live and online. So many people will overplay 2 facecards, that its hard to believe that with a broadway flop... someone hasnt hit it, or a solid 2 pair, especially with your nice sized raise pre. We all know how hard it is to fold aces... but we need to be aware of the scenarios where it may be the best idea.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

this is an ugly run out.

I agree you are behind because of the check-raise into 2 players, but I also agree you are almost being given odds to call.

This is what I like to call a QUALITATIVE vs a QUANTITATIVE decision. On the surface based on the pure math this could be a fold or a call based on the ranges you assign them and how accurate they are...it's not an obvious fold or obvious call...however we cannot judge one hand in isolation from the rest of your tournament.

If you fold this hand, then 100% of the time you will be left with an OK stack. I don't know the tourney average stack, but seems like it might be a little below average which is totally workable.

But, If you call and lose (most likely result)....you'll have a tiny, ineffective stack remaining.

If you call and win (get lucky) you'll have a significantly bigger stack; but not a monster stack.


Is that change in the quality of your future tournament play worth the risk?

to me...that qualitative equation leans towards a fold. then you add the fact that quantitatively, for this one hand in a vacuum you are behind, and I think folding is slightly better.

Usually right here I have something to say about bet sizing....but I think your bet sizing was perfect.

 

[Arjonius]

Thoughts please? I feel like I was always behind on the flop after the call and shove, but then mathematically I feel it was the right thing to do in the long run.

ty

As missjacki has said in a different way, there's more to the math in an MTT than the odds on each hand. There's also the overall tournament math. This matters because the value of chips isn't always the same. For instance, let's say winning X chips will improve your tournament EV by Y%. Losing the same number of chips will decrease your tournament EV by more than Y%. The difference is often minimal, but as you get deeper, you're increasingly likely to find situations where it becomes more of a consideration.