£11 NLHE STT Deep Stacked Rebuy: 22 hits set on flop vs. Villain river All-in

[dunc1189]

£11 NLHE STT Deep Stacked Rebuy: 22 hits set on flop vs. Villain river All-in

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 25/18/2.75

Put him on a pair of Qs with broadway kicker, or perhaps a mid pocket pair, as thought my bet was big enough on the flop to scare off the flush chase - therefore did not think the potential straight on the river was an issue. Checked the river to try and slow play and called his all in. What should I have done differently? Bet heavier on flop and turn?
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/824C55rDL

 

[atcj13]

Definitely an unlucky runout. I would prefer jamming this river over checking. AK and missed flush draws can both triple barrel this as a bluff, plus I think most of his Qx are more likely to call the river vs betting the river, since they will rarely be called by worse. I don't see any issues with your bet sizing. He has plenty of hands to call with and the majority of his draws aren't getting a good price.

 

[Jon Poker]

Unfortunate runout. Just a frosty spot our villan HAS to have KTs or T8s and those combos we can reduce to diamons or clubs and so that's just not enough hands to get me to fold a set on the river. It is what it is here - cooler city, nothing we can do.

 

[dunc1189]

Thanks both, appreciate the feedback. Just one of those hands I guess :banghead:

 

[thehangdude]

I have learned to make villains pay when they are chasing. The turn has two flush draws and a straight draw. If a villain misses their chase, you will get nothing on the river. Shove the turn when you have the nuts on a draw heavy board, and best odds villain has is 15 outs (as in this hand). So even when they call, you still have odds on your side.

By betting as you did, it cost villain 1500 to win 6620 on his river draw. Make him pay to chase, because you don't want to be in the position where you either fold or pay off when a bad river card comes.

 

[atcj13]

I have learned to make villains pay when they are chasing. The turn has two flush draws and a straight draw. If a villain misses their chase, you will get nothing on the river. Shove the turn when you have the nuts on a draw heavy board, and best odds villain has is 15 outs (as in this hand). So even when they call, you still have odds on your side.

By betting as you did, it cost villain 1500 to win 6620 on his river draw. Make him pay to chase, because you don't want to be in the position where you either fold or pay off when a bad river card comes.

You do realize going all in is 2.75x pot right?

 

[thehangdude]

You do realize going all in is 2.75x pot right?

The alternative is finding yourself in a bad situation on the river.


By shoving the nuts on a draw heavy board, you either win the 15BB pot outright, or you are better than a coin flip for doubling up.

The villain will never give you more chips if they miss their river draw, but they will make you pay when they hit it. It is better to make them pay to see.

So as played:
you win 5405 if villain misses.
you lose 7670 if villain hits.

As I suggest:
you win 2405 if villain folds turn.
you win 15,565 if villain calls and misses.
you lose 7670 if villain calls and hits.

 

[atcj13]

The alternative is finding yourself in a bad situation on the river.


By shoving the nuts on a draw heavy board, you either win the 15BB pot outright, or you are better than a coin flip for doubling up.

The villain will never give you more chips if they miss their river draw, but they will make you pay when they hit it. It is better to make them pay to see.

So as played:
you win 5405 if villain misses.
you lose 7670 if villain hits.

As I suggest:
you win 2405 if villain folds turn.
you win 15,565 if villain calls and misses.
you lose 7670 if villain calls and hits.

What about the rest of his range? We can get further value from some of his Qx, but a jam folds that out as well, except probably QJdd. Plus he can have 77 which has us in horrible shape.

 

[thehangdude]

What about the rest of his range? We can get further value from some of his Qx, but a jam folds that out as well, except probably QJdd. Plus he can have 77 which has us in horrible shape.

77 probably would have raised preflop or at least flop.
Qx might have re-raised flop, but I'm willing to lose their action. Doubt Qx would stay three streets of betting, and QA or QK and definitely QJ and Q7 would call.

I would only do this on a draw heavy board like this one. Villain could have KT, T9, AKs, ATs, diamonds, clubs. There are few cards I would like to see on the river (including pairing the board to give two pair a better full house).The only cards that couldn't help villain are a spade and heart, three through six (8 cards).

 

[atcj13]

77 probably would have raised preflop or at least flop.
Qx might have re-raised flop, but I'm willing to lose their action. Doubt Qx would stay three streets of betting, and QA or QK and definitely QJ and Q7 would call.

I would only do this on a draw heavy board like this one. Villain could have KT, T9, AKs, ATs, diamonds, clubs. There are few cards I would like to see on the river (including pairing the board to give two pair a better full house).The only cards that couldn't help villain are a spade and heart, three through six (8 cards).

With our opponent having position, it makes very little sense for them to raise the flop. The only immediate draw is diamonds. The only thing a raise folds out is bluffs. I agree we aren't likely to get three streets vs Qx, but we should be getting at least two, and sometimes he will be bluff catching the third street when the board bricks out.

You put AKs and ATs in his flatting range, but say he is likely raising 77? That doesn't seem logical to me.

Against very weak players your line might be profitable since they are calling off way wider than they should be. Good players likely aren't calling less than a set or massive combo draw. Even then they may be folding due to the chance not all of their outs are clean.