Part II, now KK on the button...

[jsi]

So after calling the river sucker bet (see https://www.cardschat.com/forum/tournament-hand-analysis-51/pocket-7s-bb-92672/) , i'm on full tilt for no good reason of course. But manage not to shove with 8-4os in the next hand in SB, lol. Then pick up pocket Ks on the button. Jackpot!

Seeing as i'm still in tilt mode, i'm just HOPING for some donk to push, or a bunch of limpers, so i can slaughter them all with the allmighty Kings. Lock-n-load...

pokerstars Game #11852323661: Tournament #60147034, $1.00+$0.10 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2007/09/03 - 16:12:14 (ET)
Table '60147034 3' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Jahdess (3825 in chips)
Seat 2: Bowie 2 (2200 in chips)
Seat 3: shulakah (1530 in chips)
Seat 4: $h!p It (1705 in chips)
Seat 5: jsirota (1735 in chips)
Seat 6: fr3dm4n (2555 in chips)
Seat 7: Jwain (2715 in chips)
Seat 8: twinkelz (3430 in chips)
Seat 9: gabbahs (4745 in chips)
fr3dm4n: posts small blind 75
Jwain: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jsirota
twinkelz: folds
gabbahs: folds
Jahdess: calls 150
Bowie 2: folds
shulakah: folds
$h!p It: folds
jsirota: ??????


Damn, not exactly the action i was hoping for.

What would you do?

A. Call 150
B. Raise to 300
C. Raise to 450
D. Raise to 600
E. Fire at will!!!! All in baby!!!

 

[ChuckTs]

D) mesays. We're sitting on a pretty awkward stack size...

A) is bad for obvious reasons
B) is bad for obvious reasons
C) is bad because we're raising too small and giving odds to worse hands

I like D). We're not short enough to just push, though if we've got a good enough read that the table is loose enough to call your push more often than not, I'm going for it. Otherwise, we're raising enough with a 600 bet to get value and to protect our hand. Raise 600, shove the flop.

E) is bad but not terrible. We're just betting too much with it and will lose a lot of value from KQ type hands that might call a smaller bet.

 

[stormswa]

D) mesays. We're sitting on a pretty awkward stack size...

A) is bad for obvious reasons
B) is bad for obvious reasons
C) is bad because we're raising too small and giving odds to worse hands

I like D). We're not short enough to just push, though if we've got a good enough read that the table is loose enough to call your push more often than not, I'm going for it. Otherwise, we're raising enough with a 600 bet to get value and to protect our hand. Raise 600, shove the flop.

E) is bad but not terrible. We're just betting too much with it and will lose a lot of value from KQ type hands that might call a smaller bet.

\

^^^^^^^^^^^^
nothing else needs to be said.

 

[blankoblanco]

D gives best stack-pot ratio. If he calls the raise, shove nearly any flop without an A in it

 

[jsi]

Nah, 600 is too much. The limper coward will probably fold and hide. Remember, i'm tilting here, i'm pissed and i want some BLOOD!!! I'm thinking we need to set a mine field here and blow'em up REAL GOOD! Mouahahaha...

 

[ChuckTs]

Oh no, I smell a limp or minraise coming...

 

[joeeagles]

I don't think option C, in this scenario, is bad. I really disagree with this.

We're on the button and we only have 1 limper in the pot, with the 2 blinds left to act. I know it's a $1 tournament (where people have an amazing inability to fold), but given the size of the blinds, the SB and BB shouldn't call based on odds, because it's a significant portion of their stack to call the extra 300 (375 for the SB), so they should fold marginal hands just as they should with option D. I don't think there is a huge danger of this going 3/4 handed just because you raise to 450 rather than 600. If they call the raise to 450 it should mean they would have called the raise to 600 just as well. More importantly, its easier to get action from the limper, which we need to have.

If we were 2 from the button then yes, you have to raise to 600 to avoid the domino effect that often happens at low stakes when there are many left to act. But in this situation, with our position and a low stack, I'm inclined to think that option C is the best because for sure we don't want all 3 players to fold and end up grabbing only 375 from this hand. You avoid the danger of getting outdrawn but with KK that's just a small concern, the bigger one is to get value from it vs a small risk of getting outdrawn.

 

[blankoblanco]

i don't mind C at all. in a vacuum i'd lean more towards D, but reads on how big of a calling station or not the original limper/blinds are affect it as well as if i have an idea that they're significantly more likely to call one sized raise than the other, etc. etc. so i really don't think C is "bad" at all

 

[shinedown.45]

Nah, 600 is too much. The limper coward will probably fold and hide. Remember, i'm tilting here, i'm pissed and i want some BLOOD!!! I'm thinking we need to set a mine field here and blow'em up REAL GOOD! Mouahahaha...

D is the only option here, see bold for the obvious reason why D is your only option.
When a player is on tilt, they are not playing their "A" game.
A 600 bet is more of a bet to help define villians hand, if called and an ace hits the board and he pushes the flop, you may find it easier to make a big laydown if warranted by villians actions.

 

[jsi]

jsirota: raises 300 to 450
fr3dm4n: folds
Jwain: folds
Jahdess: calls 300
*** FLOP ***


Jahdess: checks
jsirota: ??????

 

[Jagsti]

I'm pushing here for sure, I mean if you bet 1/2 or 2/3rds the pot and he calls, then an Ace hits the turn your crippled. Take the pot down now, if he has aces or a ten then so be it. If you push you will probably still get called by JJ,QQ possibly AK.

 

[jsi]

At this point i managed to calm down a little and started thinking about the hand a little. So we have an EP limper who called our raise with 2.75:1 odds. What possible hands are we up against? Aces, Queens, Jacks would have raised PF. TT too much of a long shot. AK, AQ probably would have raised also, but possible holdings. AJ, AT, KQ, and some mid pairs 77-99 are more likely candidates.

What would you do?

Pot is 1125
a. Check
b. Bet 600
c. Bet 1100
d. All in. Fire in the hole!!!

 

[chrisg750]

All in.... any kind of bet here would leave you with a short stack which he will have to call on the turn or river... push now and hope he calls with mid-pair and hope he doesn't have a hand like K,10... I wouldn't want to see another card. You got enough in there to take down a decent pot. Seeing as this is a $1 game, he may even call you with Ace high.

 

[joeeagles]

So after being able to get him to call you, I'm getting this bad feeling he has some kind of JT/QT hand, which is why you posted this. But I'll put that away for now and try to discuss it the way it should be forgetting about that.

Pot is now 1125 and your stack is 1285, making it worthy in a way to take it down now.

If he has a T he succeeded in outdrawing you and its pretty much inevitable that he will end up taking your whole stack, whichever direction you go. If he doesn't have a T, he might (and should) call a shove with a medium pair like 66-99. With any other 2 unpaired cards and no T, you won't get anything if you shove.

If he doesn't have a T, the chances of villain outdrawing you on the turn are very little (whether its a medium/small PP or Ax).

I'm not exactly a fan of slowplaying an unimproved KK, but the circumstances here (no draws on this board) make me think the check is the best play, because this flop either killed you (he has a T or 22) or it left you solidly ahead with a very slim chance he can outdraw you. If you check behind him this could easily induce a bet/bluff on the turn with all sorts of hands that are folding to your flop shove, allowing you to get more value or even double up.

So in conclusion, I don't disagree with those who would shove this flop, but I'd rather check hoping to get more value vs a tiny chance of getting outdrawn.

 

[ChuckTs]

I don't think option C, in this scenario, is bad. I really disagree with this.

We're on the button and we only have 1 limper in the pot, with the 2 blinds left to act. I know it's a $1 tournament (where people have an amazing inability to fold), but given the size of the blinds, the SB and BB shouldn't call based on odds, because it's a significant portion of their stack to call the extra 300 (375 for the SB), so they should fold marginal hands just as they should with option D. I don't think there is a huge danger of this going 3/4 handed just because you raise to 450 rather than 600. If they call the raise to 450 it should mean they would have called the raise to 600 just as well. More importantly, its easier to get action from the limper, which we need to have.

If we were 2 from the button then yes, you have to raise to 600 to avoid the domino effect that often happens at low stakes when there are many left to act. But in this situation, with our position and a low stack, I'm inclined to think that option C is the best because for sure we don't want all 3 players to fold and end up grabbing only 375 from this hand. You avoid the danger of getting outdrawn but with KK that's just a small concern, the bigger one is to get value from it vs a small risk of getting outdrawn.

i don't mind C at all. in a vacuum i'd lean more towards D, but reads on how big of a calling station or not the original limper/blinds are affect it as well as if i have an idea that they're significantly more likely to call one sized raise than the other, etc. etc. so i really don't think C is "bad" at all

Good points, guys. I won't argue with raising 3BBs here considering the situation.

I honestly think I stick to the 4bbs + 1 per limper rule too much and lose value from big hands because of it.

Another reason I didn't like it was because it just looks too much like a big hand wanting action, but at these stakes I don't think it matters at all since most players aren't paying attention anyways. I think even at the stakes I play at, which aren't much bigger, I give my opponents too much credit for being observant.

 

[ChuckTs]

So after being able to get him to call you, I'm getting this bad feeling he has some kind of JT/QT hand, which is why you posted this. But I'll put that away for now and try to discuss it the way it should be forgetting about that.

Pot is now 1125 and your stack is 1285, making it worthy in a way to take it down now.

If he has a T he succeeded in outdrawing you and its pretty much inevitable that he will end up taking your whole stack, whichever direction you go. If he doesn't have a T, he might (and should) call a shove with a medium pair like 66-99. With any other 2 unpaired cards and no T, you won't get anything if you shove.

If he doesn't have a T, the chances of villain outdrawing you on the turn are very little (whether its a medium/small PP or Ax).

I'm not exactly a fan of slowplaying an unimproved KK, but the circumstances here (no draws on this board) make me think the check is the best play, because this flop either killed you (he has a T or 22) or it left you solidly ahead with a very slim chance he can outdraw you. If you check behind him this could easily induce a bet/bluff on the turn with all sorts of hands that are folding to your flop shove, allowing you to get more value or even double up.

So in conclusion, I don't disagree with those who would shove this flop, but I'd rather check hoping to get more value vs a tiny chance of getting outdrawn.

As for the postflop play, I actually like the check too. We give worse hands a chance to catch up enough to pay us off, and maybe let 33+ think their hands are good.

Nothing wrong with a shove, but you just get a little more value by checking IMO.

 

[blankoblanco]

i think i disagree with checking.

most likely hands people limp/call a raise with in these games are A-rag and a small/medium pair

we don't want A-rag to draw to an A for free and lose this important pot especially when it's pretty unlikely he's going to bluff at it if he doesn't hit. it's a paired board and he'll likely think his A high has show down value and try to get to it cheap

and we don't want another card to come off for free if he has a small pair. he's not folding any pair to a small bet on a TT2 board, but if a face card or often any overcard to his pair hits the turn, we lose value and our action is killed. make a smallish bet and get the rest in on the turn, often he'll call the turn with his small pair because he feels committed by that point

simplified: we want small and medium pairs in much much more than we want A-rag in. small bet gets A-rag out while getting max value from small and medium pairs instead of waiting for the turn to kill our action

 

[jsi]

jsirota: bets 1285 and is all-in
Jahdess: calls 1285
*** TURN ***
[ ] []
*** RIVER ***
[ ] []
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Jahdess: shows [ ] (three of a kind, Tens)
jsirota: shows [ ] (two pair, Kings and Tens)
Jahdess collected 3695 from pot

Oops...


The reason i posted these two hands is just it seemed too typical of situations i find myself in. I'll be sitting on a decent avg/above avg stack. Then a couple of hands later i'm busted out wondering wtf happened. So i thought i'd start posting some of these on here so as to analyze and think actively about the plays that led to this situation and keep learning.

I guess i didnt make any bad mistakes in this or the other hand, with both of them just being a case of being out-flopped, not out-played. That's poker as they say. There have been plenty of other times when i doubled and trippled up with similar hands, took the chip lead and went on to win these mtt sng.

I've only been playing for about 8 months online with almost zero poker experience before that. I mean i didnt even know all the hand rankings before that. Started with play money for a while, won some freeroll money and been playing with that since. Then a couple of months ago i decided to take a scholarly interest in the game. Read Sklansky's and Harrington books and now i'm on here hoping to learn and improve plenty more...

So thanks to all who contributed on these threads.

 

[blankoblanco]

shove's not bad either as you can get called by medium pairs a decent amount of the time, i'd just be worried about scaring too many of them away. reads on the player definitely help

obviously just really rotten luck as it happened

 

[alan1983]

Id have bet a small amount as combu suggested. Make him think he can push you off the hand with air even, and itd surely get called by marginal pairs too.

 

[joeeagles]

Ah well, you're going busto here no matter what since he has a T.

11+ BB's don't give you a chance to escape this.

The shove is ok(ish), because medium pairs, which are certainly part of his range, should call it on that board but many times they get scared off and fold. I just think it makes you lose value too many times. The small bet proposed by Combu is better, but I still think the check gives you a better chance to get value, and if you're up vs Ax, the chances of getting outdrawn are small and it induces a bet on the turn many times. The small bet kind of looks suspicious with your stack, it makes it feel like you have a T (assuming he doesn't have it), although I might be overthinking this considering the stakes we're playing here.

As I said, since he has a T, and with your stack, there is no avoiding this result. Whichever way you go on that flop makes no difference, if its not soon it'll be later, but your chips will be going in this pot.

Better luck next time.