Overpair on draw rich board

[Effexor]

Whats the correct move here?

Check / call or fold?

Bet? if so, how much?

Does the smooth call throw up any warning flags?

full tilt poker Game #2864615016: $5 + $0.50 Sit & Go (21854819), Table 1 - 25/50 - No Limit Hold'em - 1:49:41 ET - 2007/07/06
Seat 2: nbdiver (15)
Seat 3: Effexor (1,955)
Seat 4: Crap_Jacks (1,235)
Seat 5: Hermosal (1,015)
Seat 6: Craven05 (1,670)
Seat 7: RogueWild (3,915)
Seat 8: MacRink (3,115)
Seat 9: dragon_in_mee (580)
dragon_in_mee posts the small blind of 25
nbdiver posts the big blind of 15, and is all in
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Effexor [Kd Ks]
Effexor has 15 seconds left to act
Effexor raises to 150
Crap_Jacks folds
Hermosal folds
Craven05 calls 150
RogueWild calls 150
MacRink folds
dragon_in_mee folds
*** FLOP *** [9d 5h 8d]
Effexor has 15 seconds left to act
Effexor bets 450
Craven05 folds
RogueWild has 15 seconds left to act
RogueWild calls 450
*** TURN *** [9d 5h 8d] [Qh]

I.... ?

Pot is basically the same as what I have left, about 1300 or so.

 

[Emperor IX]

Ah, this is a sucky situation. Pushing would be a good move, as you can be sure you're a favorite here. You're safe from the heart draw pretty much, if you're beaten by taht just write it off, because that was a result of a poor play by him. A straight isn't too likely unless he's been calling with marginal holdings.

Any meaningful bet is going to get you re-raised all in, and a check is going to invite him to scare you out of the pot. It's either push, or check/fold

 

[rob5775]

A queen was definitely a card that you didn't want to see. A call with JT on the button is very plausible, and though he didn't have odds to call your flop bet... when does anyone lay down a up/down straight draw anymore?

If he was on a diamond draw and called a pot bet on the flop he will likely call any decent bet on the turn also. Of course he could also have speculated with 67 or a medium pocket pair and flopped the straight or set. But I see both of those holdings likely reraising you to protect against the flush.

I would not check the turn. Villain could have floated the flop knowing that it probably did not hit you if you have unpaired paint, and be willing to fire away if you show weakness on the turn. If we check the turn, and he does put in a big bet... we are in a very difficult spot and likely have to fold.

I also do not like shoving here, because we could be shoving into a straight or set. Bet around 500, (yes its smallish), but if he has a hand at this point (either a set or straight) he is vulnerable to two different flush draws - diamonds and hearts - and will come over the top. You can get away with 800 still left. By chance, do you have any reads. Does this player like to slowplay and get tricky or does he chase draws with improper odds. It might help.

 

[Effexor]

I've been guilty of overplaying overpairs lately, small hole maybe in my game.

I really do like the suggestion of betting about half my stack, basically leaving me with enough chips to get away from the hand and still have enough to play a bit.

I pushed this, thinking that the guy most likely had a nut flush draw, or something like AK / AQ.

He had a set of 8's. I do think I overplayed the kings.

 

[rob5775]

I really thought a set might raise your bet on the flop due to the texture... it was very draw heavy. His set is vulnerable to a straight and the diamond flush. He played it well. And a shove isn't a horrible play, as you want to punish him if he was drawing. Ah, well... next time.