nearing the end of 6max mtt, combo draw

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danyjel

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hi there.

this is my first hand here, so sorry if anything's wrong. i'm playing at pokertime, so my hand history doesn't seem to be compatible with the hand converter, that's why i didn't use it actually.

so.

it was $3+.30 6max tourney, nine people remainded. i was an average stack with $105,000. prizes were like this - 10th place was for $25, 9th was for $39, while 1st was for $375. blinds were 4,000/8,000. in this hand, i was dealt 7h5h in the cut-off. while folded to me, i decided to steal the blinds (hadn't been much active too much recently, so i could afford it). i actually hadn't min-raised for some time, so i felt like not-comitting too many chips with my hand was the right choice. min-raises also had some kind of respect here. everyobody folded to big blind (with a little bit smaller stack of $85,000), who actually, after some time, called. the big blind played kind of straightforward poker.

with all the antes and small blind, the pot was 19,500.

the flop went Jh, Qh, 7c.

cool, i said to me. and then, the big blind decided to put his entire stack in the middle.his hand was almost for sure a top pair, probably with a good kicker (or maaaybeee flush draw, not much probable though). not better than that. for me, it was 76,000 to call. if i called and lost, i would have only 20,000 left (like 3M). if i called and won, i would have like 200,000 and would become the chipleader of the tourney. now, with almost 100,000, i still was able to play some poker, but would feel definitely much more comfortable having kind of bigger stack...

so, what's the right play here?

thanks for advices



(well, i actually reflexively called, the board blanked and then i ended 8th for $39)
 
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Wonka22

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fold preflop? I just went throught this scenario (kinda) yesterday...

Regardless...if you're going to steal, PUT SOME MONEY out there....you're giving the BB and SB EXCELLENT odds to call with a min raise....
 
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danyjel

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fold preflop? I just went throught this scenario (kinda) yesterday...

Regardless...if you're going to steal, PUT SOME MONEY out there....you're giving the BB and SB EXCELLENT odds to call with a min raise....

i know that. the thing is that min-raise really had a lot of respect here, they usually folded to it (and the only min-raise i did was with AA, which i showed actually)

and i was really asking for something else :/
 
Wonka22

Wonka22

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You were asking if you should call the guys ALL IN?? I'm probalby just an average player on this site..and I know the answer is....You're beat...fold post flop to an all in raise. You didn't even have a kicker....so you beat 27 37 and 47 along with a bluff....While i'm sure some people bluff with their whole stack..I'd venture to say, you can bluff with a pot sized bet...:)
 
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danyjel

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You were asking if you should call the guys ALL IN?? I'm probalby just an average player on this site..and I know the answer is....You're beat...fold post flop to an all in raise. You didn't even have a kicker....so you beat 27 37 and 47 along with a bluff....While i'm sure some people bluff with their whole stack..I'd venture to say, you can bluff with a pot sized bet...:)

the thing is that i am favorite (of like 1 % edge), if he really has the overpair. all fives, all sevens, all hearts help me. i definitely have the pot odds, the thing is, do i have the prizepool equity?
 
Wonka22

Wonka22

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My mistake...you are the favorite..BUT....you still need to hit a card...I didn't notice your four to a flush...with that said...what if he has AT hearts...perfectly fine for him to make the preflop call with this...and perfectly fine for him to beat you into the pot all in...

Deep in tourneys like this you want to avoid coinflips with the other big stacks. You should be wanting to attack the small stack and be happy with small wins from the larger stacks. You can make an arguement for calling this hand, same as I can make the arguement for calling with 10 J suited....but if you look for the post here you'll see that most people told me that I was wrong..:)
 
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danyjel

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My mistake...you are the favorite..BUT....you still need to hit a card...I didn't notice your four to a flush...with that said...what if he has AJ hearts...perfectly fine for him to make the preflop call with this...and perfectly fine for him to beat you into the pot all in...

Deep in tourneys like this you want to avoid coinflips with the other big stacks. You should be wanting to attack the small stack and be happy with small wins from the larger stacks. You can make an arguement for calling this hand, same as I can make the arguement for calling with 10 J suited....but if you look for the post here you'll see that most people told me that I was wrong..:)

be sure that he didn't have AJ of hearts, when J of heart was on the flop.

what i considered as his range was - Qx (95 %), Axh (5 %) and I was a slight favorite with it. with money already in the pot, i really had the odds.

the thing is my equity in the prizepool. if i won that, i had something like 80 - 90 % of being in one of the first places. if i didn't call at all, i had something around 20 %. that's just how i am thinking. correct me if i'm wrong.

and your TJs has nothing to do with this, by the way
 
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shinedown.45

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hi there.

this is my first hand here, so sorry if anything's wrong. i'm playing at pokertime, so my hand history doesn't seem to be compatible with the hand converter, that's why i didn't use it actually.

so.

it was $3+.30 6max tourney, nine people remainded. i was an average stack with $105,000. prizes were like this - 10th place was for $25, 9th was for $39, while 1st was for $375. blinds were 4,000/8,000. in this hand, i was dealt 7h5h in the cut-off. while folded to me, i decided to steal the blinds (hadn't been much active too much recently, so i could afford it). i actually hadn't min-raised for some time, so i felt like not-comitting too many chips with my hand was the right choice. min-raises also had some kind of respect here. everyobody folded to big blind (with a little bit smaller stack of $85,000), who actually, after some time, called. the big blind played kind of straightforward poker.

with all the antes and small blind, the pot was 19,500.

the flop went Jh, Qh, 7c.

cool, i said to me. and then, the big blind decided to put his entire stack in the middle.his hand was almost for sure a top pair, probably with a good kicker (or maaaybeee flush draw, not much probable though). not better than that. for me, it was 76,000 to call. if i called and lost, i would have only 20,000 left (like 3M). if i called and won, i would have like 200,000 and would become the chipleader of the tourney. now, with almost 100,000, i still was able to play some poker, but would feel definitely much more comfortable having kind of bigger stack...

so, what's the right play here?

thanks for advices



(well, i actually reflexively called, the board blanked and then i ended 8th for $39)
It had been mentioned before, but if your going to try a steal attempt, a min-raise is not the way to go.
Don't try and tell me that a minraise got respect at this table(I'm sure it did, I just don't need you to repeat, I'm trying to go somewhere with this).
This looks like a fold to the all-in IMO, you may have the odds to call but hitting your flush will not give you the nuts, so I wouldn't really count the hearts as reliable outs, not counting the 5s as outs either as QJ has you beat here also, so the one true outs you may have here are the two remaining 7s left.

disclaimer: I'm a nitty Card Reaper
 
Wonka22

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Notice I changed the J to a ten...it really doesn't matter.

You're trying to justify your play..and REALLY you don't have to. You asked our opinion and I gave you mine. You were trying to win the tournament with one hand, had you hit, you're a genius. You happened to miss.

Remember I said that you don't want to go into a coin flip with a guy who has a similar chipstack to yours.....You raised preflop, fine. He called, he won, NOW you have 3M on a table with 6 people...If you're happy with 8th place that's fine, but you're flipping a coin.
 
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danyjel

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It had been mentioned before, but if your going to try a steal attempt, a min-raise is not the way to go.
Don't try and tell me that a minraise got respect at this table(I'm sure it did, I just don't need you to repeat, I'm trying to go somewhere with this).
This looks like a fold to the all-in IMO, you may have the odds to call but hitting your flush will not give you the nuts, so I wouldn't really count the hearts as reliable outs, not counting the 5s as outs either as QJ has you beat here also, so the one true outs you may have here are the two remaining 7s left.

disclaimer: I'm a nitty Card Reaper

well, if he had two cards of hearts, i was favorite with my pair.

the second thing was that i was pretty sure he wouldnt go insta-allin with two pair in this spot, that's for sure.

the thing is, would you call the allin against AcQs?



Notice I changed the J to a ten...it really doesn't matter.

You're trying to justify your play..and REALLY you don't have to. You asked our opinion and I gave you mine. You were trying to win the tournament with one hand, had you hit, you're a genius. You happened to miss.

Remember I said that you don't want to go into a coin flip with a guy who has a similar chipstack to yours.....You raised preflop, fine. He called, he won, NOW you have 3M on a table with 6 people...If you're happy with 8th place that's fine, but you're flipping a coin.

c'mon, i'm not here to justify my play...

i know i am flipping a coin, i was even almost sure about that. but i was flipping it for getting absolutely maximal equity in the prizepool, getting me in one of the top 3 places for almost sure...
 
Wonka22

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ok then, you made the right move you just got unlucky.
 
ChuckTs

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A minraise is fine if the table's been respecting it. No need to really beat on a dead horse here; if OP thinks there was respect given for tiny steals, then whatever.

76,000 into a 19,500 pot lays us 1.26:1. Even if he's got the top of his range, like AhQx, you're nearly getting odds. He'll have plenty of naked flush draws, straight draws, one-pair hands and other junk. Clear call if you ask me.
 
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danyjel

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A minraise is fine if the table's been respecting it. No need to really beat on a dead horse here; if OP thinks there was respect given for tiny steals, then whatever.

76,000 into a 19,500 pot lays us 1.26:1. Even if he's got the top of his range, like AhQx, you're nearly getting odds. He'll have plenty of naked flush draws, straight draws, one-pair hands and other junk. Clear call if you ask me.

thanks for reply man.

this is actually how i see it. the thing is, should i, even with the right odds, risk my tourney life on 50/50 chance? how exactly does doubling of my stack affect my equity in the prizepool?

my point of view - 9th place gets like 2 % of the prizepool, while 3rd place gets around 10 %, second place gets like 16 % and first place gets 25 % of the pool. now, my chance of getting one of the first three places is like 30 % (9 people remain, i have average stack). if i call and win, my chance will grow to, in my opinion, more than 80 % (now is this number right?, can i count with this?). that means, if my call has 50 % probability of winning, by calling, my chance for getting in one of these spots should increase to 40 %. the second thing is, i can't of course count only with these prizes, they still rise and rise from 9th till 1st place signigicantly.. so math and effect of stack size to overall equity, that's what i'm interested in right now.

i find this problem pretty interesting, but on the other hand, i think there must be definitely clear answer if calling is ev+ or not.

thanks guys ;)
 
robwhufc

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It's a tricky one - if you had made a bigger pre-flop raise, then you'd have even better odds to call. I think in these late tournament situations you need one or 2 critical hands to bounce your way - if you factor in the chance that he has an AK type hand, then i'd call. You could get dealt AA next hands, but i've played a few of these final table situations, and can't remember getting dealt a big hand at an opportune time - more often it's a case of going all in with 5 2 os into an unopened pot, and closing your eyes.
 
ChuckTs

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thanks for reply man.

this is actually how i see it. the thing is, should i, even with the right odds, risk my tourney life on 50/50 chance? how exactly does doubling of my stack affect my equity in the prizepool?

my point of view - 9th place gets like 2 % of the prizepool, while 3rd place gets around 10 %, second place gets like 16 % and first place gets 25 % of the pool. now, my chance of getting one of the first three places is like 30 % (9 people remain, i have average stack). if i call and win, my chance will grow to, in my opinion, more than 80 % (now is this number right?, can i count with this?). that means, if my call has 50 % probability of winning, by calling, my chance for getting in one of these spots should increase to 40 %. the second thing is, i can't of course count only with these prizes, they still rise and rise from 9th till 1st place signigicantly.. so math and effect of stack size to overall equity, that's what i'm interested in right now.

i find this problem pretty interesting, but on the other hand, i think there must be definitely clear answer if calling is ev+ or not.

thanks guys ;)

What you're getting at is a concept called ICM - independent chip model. Essentially in STTs and late in MTTs (ie when they resemble STTs), EV calculations are skewed because of the payout spots. So that means even if your chip EV is positive here on a call, it doesn't necessarily mean that your dollar EV is positive. To be honest I'm not really well-versed enough in tourneys to tell you which it is, but I do think your chip EV is positive here.
 
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