Missing with AK at flop was I too cautious?

[Ronaldadio]

Hi Guys.

I was playing Ladbrokes rebuy today $10 buyin + $10 rebuy + $10 add on.

Level 2 of tourny, going about 15 mins.

Here is the play, tell me what you think. I was on the button. I was delt AKh...

B00geyMan posted small blind (10)
> julesky posted big blind (20)
> Game # 549,680,611 starting.
> Dealing Hole Cards
> ellemundo called for 20
> cbccbc123456 called for 20
> EL_TURCO folded
> salcin_73 folded
> Number2-1023 folded
> BLUE1969 folded
> ronaldadio raised for 100
> B00geyMan folded
> julesky folded
> ellemundo called for 80
> cbccbc123456 called for 80
> Dealing the Flop(5h 8s Jd )
> ellemundo bet for 100
> cbccbc123456 raised for 200
> ronaldadio folded
> ronaldadio, you have 10 seconds to respond
> ellemundo called for 100
> Dealing the turn(8d )
> ellemundo checked
> cbccbc123456 checked
> Dealing the river(Ks )
> ellemundo checked
> cbccbc123456 bet for 80
> ellemundo called for 80
> cbccbc123456 shows One Pair, Eights
(8s 8d Ks Jd 10d )
> ellemundo shows Two Pair, Eights over Fives
(8s 8d 5h 5d Ks )
> ellemundo wins 890 with Two Pair, Eights over Fives

If I had called I would have taken down the pot on the river. I think this sums up the way I play sometimes. Other times I`ll be sitting with say 99. Flop comes 27Q rainbow. I normally fold to a 1/2 to pot size raise. The I watch as the 9 comes up on the turn!!!

I am right doing what I`m doing or am I too cautious???

Ronaldadio

 

[F Paulsson]

The flop fold was correct. Someone bet, someone else raised; two people say that they hit that flop (and one of them says that he hit it hard enough to raise) and you may be drawing anywhere from slim to completely dead.

That you would have hit a lucky card on the river doesn't make it wrong to fold.

 

[don8ions]

You might want to raise more pre-flop to represent a premium hand. You got donked more or less by somebody in the hand with a 5. I'm guessing they probably had A 5 suited or something of that nature, but to bet bottom pair is strange. It looks like someone put you on a hand and was correct to bet there. Either that, or they made complete donkey bets and raises with middle and bottom pair. Sometimes it's hard to figure out exactly what people are doing when a flop like that comes out and they aren't holding a pocket pair, nor facecards. Hopefully you lasted longer than these players and had a bit more predictable/experienced competition later on. But a good fold nonetheless and a good example of how position aids in maintaining your chip stack.

 

[ChuckTs]

The flop fold was correct. Someone bet, someone else raised; two people say that they hit that flop (and one of them says that he hit it hard enough to raise) and you may be drawing anywhere from slim to completely dead.

That you would have hit a lucky card on the river doesn't make it wrong to fold.

Perfectly put, Fredrik.

This is just a situation where the two people who called PF hit the flop, and you didn't. It happens, and you have to know when to let your AK go. Good fold.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

It's time again to play the fun 'stop being results-oriented' game!

If your (virtual) 6 outer doesn't hit on the river, would you have still created this topic?

 

[Ronaldadio]

Thanks for that

It's time again to play the fun 'stop being results-oriented' game!

If your (virtual) 6 outer doesn't hit on the river, would you have still created this topic?

No, definatly not. But being relativley new to the game I try and play tight aggressive and I sit watch ppl with J7 out of position calling raises and winning pots (calling stations pro`s like u call them). So my question was more with 2 overcards after the flop is the person last to make a decision always going to bet, therefore should I have called with my `6 outs`, runner runner straight and flush draw - I`ve seen others do it!!!

A few days ago by mistake I went all in pre flop with 44. The other guy turned over JJ and I caught 4 on flop - won the pot. I need reassurances that I am making the correct choices.

I also sit and watch some ppl going all in with nothing at all and winning on a regular basis. The luck element in poker is massive, so it makes you wonder.

I don`t know what your point is, u seem as if u r pissed off cause I asked a question under the section "discuss with others hands you played and did you play them the right way" (this is a poker chat forum?), but I`m trying to get to grips with the fact I have played 86 tournys from 24th June until today, being 31st July. In those tourneys I have made the money 12 times - 14% of the time. All I want to know is did I make the right choice and am I starting to resemble a 1/2 decent poker player.

Ronaldadio

 

[F Paulsson]

Ronaldadio,

There are several factors that come in play when you decide whether or not to call (or raise) on the flop. Many of them can be ignored when you're posting a hand like these (specifically things pertaining to what's called "meta game", e.g. making a bad move now to make more money in some future hand), but to make the shortest list:

1. How likely is my hand to be best?
2. If I need to improve, do I have the odds to continue?

A1: Your hand is almost certainly not the best hand right now.
A2: No. You have, if you need to improve, at the very most 6 outs. You would need odds of about 7:1 to continue, and even though I'm not entirely sure how to interpret the bets (did he raise to 200 or 300 when it says "raises for 200"?), it's at least clear that you're looking at odds that are nowhere near 7:1. In reality, you'll often have even less chance than that of improving, perhaps drawing even dead, but when the odds you are offered won't even cover the most ideal case, the fold is clear.

What cards that later were dealt on the turn and river is of no consequence, and that's what Chris (Dorkus Malorkus) gave you a jab about. Because results influence how we analyze a hand, posting them will almost always give you worse advice than if you exclude them.

Good luck,
FP

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

I don`t know what your point is, u seem as if u r pissed off cause I asked a question under the section "discuss with others hands you played and did you play them the right way" (this is a poker chat forum?), but I`m trying to get to grips with the fact I have played 86 tournys from 24th June until today, being 31st July. In those tourneys I have made the money 12 times - 14% of the time. All I want to know is did I make the right choice and am I starting to resemble a 1/2 decent poker player.

Eh? I'm not 'pissed off' in the slightest - I apologise if it seemed that I was, but obviously there's been a misunderstanding here. My 'point' was essentially that results oriented thinking like this...

If I had called I would have taken down the pot on the river.

...and this...

I also sit and watch some ppl going all in with nothing at all and winning on a regular basis. The luck element in poker is massive, so it makes you wonder.

...is bad.

As a challenge, try rephrasing those quotes the 'non-results-oriented' way. You get something like...

If I had called, it would have been a bad move, as there had already been a bet and a raise in front of me, all I had were overcards, and as I was not closing the action the initial raiser could have reraised, and I would have had no choice but to fold.

...and...

I also watch some people going in with nothing at all regularly. Although on occasions they will run good and go on a winning streak, over the long run they are essentially giving money away, and I should be grateful that such players exist.

 

[Ronaldadio]

Friends again?

Eh? I'm not 'pissed off' in the slightest - I apologise if it seemed that I was, but obviously there's been a misunderstanding here. My 'point' was essentially that results oriented thinking like this...



...and this...


...is bad.

As a challenge, try rephrasing those quotes the 'non-results-oriented' way. You get something like...



...and...

Thanks m8, good point.

 

[Effexor]

Lets take your example to the results oriented extreme. You fold 72offsuit preflop. Flop comes 772. Does that make make folding preflop a bad decision? Clearly it doesn't.

Poker is a series of decisions. Each is individual and generally unrelated to the previous decision. When I make a bad call, but it pays off and I win when I hit a miracle card, all I do is shake my head and say "yeah I won, but that was a terrible call" In this hand, at the time you folded, I think that was the correct decision.

No, definatly not. But being relativley new to the game I try and play tight aggressive and I sit watch ppl with J7 out of position calling raises and winning pots (calling stations pro`s like u call them). So my question was more with 2 overcards after the flop is the person last to make a decision always going to bet, therefore should I have called with my `6 outs`, runner runner straight and flush draw - I`ve seen others do it!!!


Ronaldadio

Mrsticker in one of his posts called this "Donkey Tilt". It's a sure way to spew chips. Trust me, I fell into this trap already. I see someone play garbage and hit monsters and start to question why I fold so much... It always has ended badly for me.

 

[ChuckTs]

Poker is all about making the best decision in the situation you are in right now.

If you were to fold 56s to a raise PF only to see the flop bring 234s, this obviously does not mean that you should have called with your hand PF.
Just like in your example; AK raised PF, then a bet and a raise to you on a flop which gives you (to quote fredrik) at most 6 outs. Just because you would have taken a big pot with your king on the river does not mean you should have called. The fact that it is a premium hand makes no difference; this is a very standard fold. Also don't mistake Dorkus' bluntness as rudeness He's just being honest.

I was watching the final table of 2005's wsop, and this hand happened:
raise and a reraise, and Player A (can't remember his name), folded A5 or something like it.
Flop came AAx which would have given him trips. Ignoring the play after the flop, which does not concern Player A, you could see the agony on his face for folding trips. Then came the turn - another ace!
Long story short, the guy lost his very healthy chipstack within the 3 or 4 ensuing hands because he was tilting so much from missing that huge opportunity. (he called shortstacks' all ins with K9 QT and hands like that)

There were millions on the line, and of course that just adds to the stress, but he had every reason to fold PF. What was he gonna do, call a raise - nevermind a reraise - preflop with A5??? Of course not - he played it fine by folding, but what he did not do fine was forget about the hand. He obviously wasn't making 'the best decision in the situation you are in right now.' which is really all he should have been concerned about.

I often find myself punching my thigh after seeing that, had I called that last AQ to a reraise, I would have taken a massive pot, but in reality folding was the best option.

Try out the gambling, crazy all-in style at the lower limits for a few hundred MTTs and you'll quickly realize it's not the way to go. You see tons of donkeys get lucky all the time, but they're the ones who's luck eventually runs out and they have no skill to settle back on. They eventually go broke, and feed the better players' bankrolls.

 

[Ronaldadio]

All very good advice as usual guys, thank u all very much.

It answered my question that the way I am playing hands is the way decent players would play.

An excellent example tonight when in a rebuy I was forced all in with KK. The other guy turned over AJ. He hit his A on turn giving him the pot. To make it worse he mocked me, so I made a note and waited.

Later in the tourny I got AA UTG. I called (I know, I know!!!) but I guessed he would raise, which he did to 3 times bb. HHe was acting after me, next seat. Three other callers so I let them have both barrels, everything I had. My `mate` went all in, one of the others called. My `mate` had KQ, the other guy had AT and I took the lot. Being me, I `reminded him` of the ribbing he gave me. He had a few friends at the table who stuck up for him. They were all very loose players, it was early in a rebuy, and they were pissing me off with their `all in` style.

To get to the point, although they had 4-5 times my stack before the rebuy ended, when the tourny ended I finished 17th (out of the money, my AT taken out by A5 at showdown) but the top one of the others was 29th - so being patient works!!!

My o my I go on a bit !!!

Ronaldadio

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

I hate to disagree guys. What I would have seen here is a standard knock extra players out move. This was a rebuy tourney. You have one the premiums hands and you raised PF. The flop is a crap flop. You back off a lousy 200 chip raise? Raise it. You were the one to set the table tempo. Unless a pair flopped you have the momentum, use it. I doubt very much if you had raised another 200 either one would have stayed.

 

[ChuckTs]

I hate to disagree guys. What I would have seen here is a standard knock extra players out move. This was a rebuy tourney. You have one the premiums hands and you raised PF. The flop is a crap flop. You back off a lousy 200 chip raise? Raise it. You were the one to set the table tempo. Unless a pair flopped you have the momentum, use it. I doubt very much if you had raised another 200 either one would have stayed.

In a rebuy?
I don't mind a raise at all with one player betting weak like that into you (especially if you've set a TAG image), but with 2 players and a bet and raise into you, they're most likely going to call you if they have something like J9. Especially if you're only reraising it to 400.

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

Exactly. Since it is a rebuy you know they are going to call with more crap hands. Use your good hand to get some chips and if luck has it you didn't make it; it is a rebuy.

 

[ChuckTs]

Well all I can say is: to my surprise, it seems I've found someone more aggressive than me

 

[joosebuck]

ya dude, dont bluff pots where more than 1 person before you has shown interest in it. in the perfect situation where you have 2 overs to the flop and discounting runner straights/flushes you are around 16% to hit one of your overs. not good enough to stick around when there is one person betting and another raising in front of you. good fold. if it was just you and another person i could see trying to make a move, but not in this pot.

 

[joosebuck]

I was watching the final table of 2005's WSOP, and this hand happened:
raise and a reraise, and Player A (can't remember his name), folded A5 or something like it.
Flop came AAx which would have given him trips. Ignoring the play after the flop, which does not concern Player A, you could see the agony on his face for folding trips. Then came the turn - another ace!
Long story short, the guy lost his very healthy chipstack within the 3 or 4 ensuing hands because he was tilting so much from missing that huge opportunity. (he called shortstacks' all ins with K9 QT and hands like that)

oh ya, the magician guy. he blew up FAST. he was like 2nd highest stack or so IIRC, and went out in a matter of like 4 hands in a row. was sick. i think he even pushed the QJ & KT hands.

 

[blankoblanco]

Scott Lazar's the magician guy, and I recall that as well. That was one of the most insane blow ups I've seen. He was in great shape and then in a sequence of roughly 4 hands he basically blew the whole thing by tilting and calling/pushing with very marginal hands. It's just, wow.

I think it's incredibly stupid that he let that tilt him so hard... a hand he didn't even play, didn't even lose chips on, and he was still I think 2nd in chips. Things like that happen to me regularly but I can find a hell of a lot better reasons to tilt than something as dumb as that

 

[ChuckTs]

The only way I can find it as understandable is by considering how much money was on the line. Aside from that, these are all world-class players, or at least very good players who have outlasted 2500+ other good players to get to where they are, and I see no reason for them to let tilting have that much of an effect on their game. They should be past that.