Middle set vs LAG minraise; $16 turbo STT

[ChuckTs]

Villain is pretty LAG (total stats =~25/4/.75, but he was much more aggressive at this point), and I've been my typical TAG self up til this point. Not sure if I played a hand yet.

What does his flop minraise mean, and how can we win the max here?

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Button (t1990)
SB (t1450)
BB (t950)
UTG (t1290)
UTG+1 (t1170)
MP1 (t2300)
Hero (t1470)
MP3 (t1470)
CO (t1410)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with

,

.
3 folds, Hero raises to t120, 1 fold, CO calls t120, 3 folds.

Flop: (t285)

,

,

(2 players)
Hero bets t180, CO [takes a long time, then] raises to t360, Hero ...

 

[OzExorcist]

*raises eyebrows*

I'd interpret it one of two ways - I figure he's either playing a KJ/QJ type hand, puts you on the flush draw and is making a misguided attempt to put you off the hand, or the reverse: he's got a couple of spades, and is putting you on the AJ/KJ type hand. It doesn't seem like he suspects a set here.

Only other possibility to my mind is a post-oak bluff... but I'm not getting the impression villain is that sophisticated?

I'm leaning towards the spades in his hand, and assuming that he probably would've re-raised you preflop with JJ.

Either way, I think I'm just calling here. If he's on the flush draw, you've taken one of his outs away and have plenty yourself for the draw to a boat.

Action after that depends on the card that comes next - I might be inclined to slow-play it, see if he bets into me on the turn and reraise him if it's not a spade. Like I mentioned, I don't think he's putting us on a set given the action. But then I probably slow-play too often, so take that with a grain of salt maybe

 

[blankoblanco]

Only other possibility to my mind is a post-oak bluff... but I'm not getting the impression villain is that sophisticated?

lol. believe me, this requires absolutely no sophistication. tons of players, many of them terrible, do the "minraise bluff cause opponent probably didnt hit this flop". i see it freaking all the time. just yesterday at 200NL i played back at two of them on semibluffs and both players damn near instafolded

this is really read dependent. i can be in favor of just calling if you think there's a high chance he takes another shot on most turns (either with a bluff or a marginally good hand). the spade draw rarely minraises here, so i think we're way ahead. the standard for a draw on this flop is to either just call and try to hit his draw or to raise to an amount where there's actual fold equity. not raise to an amount that's got low fold equity only to give you a chance to shove and price him out. of course, he might be a retard

 

[ChuckTs]

re: it being a bluff: Like combu said, this is much more common than you think. And it doesn't require sophistication, just a click of the (min)raise button


Let me ask a question. It may seem subtle and pointless, but what difference would it make to you if he quickly minraised?

 

[OzExorcist]

If he quickly minraised, I'd be inclined to think either he pressed the wrong button, or that combuboom's last assessment was correct

I dunno, it'd probably make me lean more towards the top-pair type hand... or maybe two pair. Only hand I'd be afraid of in that case is JJ, and I just couldn't see it being played this way.

 

[lasvegaspokerchick]

Agree and Disagree

I agree with the analysis of what your opponent probably has, but I disagree with the suggestion that you flat call. I would (quickly) push all-in in this situation for a few reasons:

1. Because you are somewhat short stacked, a push would require your opponent to call just under $1000 into a pot that would total about $3000 including his call. If he does have a flush draw, he is getting just about the right odds to call you. (It's the flop so he gets to draw twice to it.)Assuming your goal is to get him to put all his chips in the pot, and assuming you are not planning (if you did flat call) on mucking to a flush card on the turn or river, this accomplishes what you want.
2. If your opponent has, on the other hand, a made hand such as JQ or JK, your insta-push may look overly aggressive and he may be enticed to call you. (Not that most players need to be enticed to get all their money in the pot with top pair anyway.)
3. But the biggest reason I advocate a push in your situation (and with your chip stack) is because if you don't push, the rest of the hand becomes needlessly difficult. For example, let's say that the turn comes off a blank...you just flat called the flop, if you bet out again on the turn that indicates lots of strength and you may tip off a hand like JQ to your massive hand. On the other hand, if the turn comes off a flush card, you have now given yourself a very difficult decision to make...do you check and risk getting bluffed off of your hand, or push anyway in a half assed attempt to make up the ground that you lost. Worst yet, what if the flush card comes, you check, he checks, then the four flush comes on the river. You now have two shitty possible outcomes...you win, but you win the minimum becuase you can't bet into four spades, or you lose to an inferior hand like JQ with the Q of spades.

Just my thoughts.

 

[OzExorcist]

The hand is early in the first level and Chuck's M was above 30 at the beginning of the hand - I don't think this is a short stack problem.

 

[t1riel]

With a raise and reraise on the flop with two spades, I'd shove here. You don't want to be sucked out with flush chasers. If they fold, you still win a good sized pot.

 

[lasvegaspokerchick]

In turbo tournaments you're always two inches from being short stacked unless you have drastically grown your stack. You can't play them like deep stack tournaments or you will end up short stacked in short order.

 

[ChuckTs]

Well regarding timing, I think a quick minraise is more indicative of a QJ or KJ type hand (not much to think about there; "I HAS TOP PAIR I RAISE"), but with the long wait and the minraise, I was almost sure he was making a move. In retrospect, I agree that FDs rarely do this, for reasons already mentioned from combu.

Now while I agree with calling and check-raising the turn to give our opponent a second chance to bluff us, I ended up pushing with the multitabling distractions and with the thinking that I've got to protect vs a flush draw. I pushed, he folded, I made a thread about not getting max value from a set :/

 

[ICMoney]

I would be happy getting this all in a cash game for 100bb.

Here you only have a pot-sized raise left.

I shove this all day.

Fist pump.

 

[ICMoney]

I pushed, he folded, I made a thread about not getting max value from a set :/

And if he would have called would you have thought you made the right play?

Don't be results orientated.

There is a flush draw, two possible straight draws, top pair possibilities, etc.

He raised showing that he is interested in the hand.
Even if he has a flush/straight he is getting odds on your push.

He folded and would not have paid you off with a stack on the turn/river with his A8 or whatever.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

The min 3-bet is obviously the correct play here.

(Yeah I jest, I shove this all day long too)

 

[vanquish]

The min 3-bet is obviously the correct play here.

(Yeah I jest, I shove this all day long too)

^ Chris steals my thoughts.

 

[ChuckTs]

And if he would have called would you have thought you made the right play?

Don't be results orientated.

There is a flush draw, two possible straight draws, top pair possibilities, etc.

He raised showing that he is interested in the hand.
Even if he has a flush/straight he is getting odds on your push.

He folded and would not have paid you off with a stack on the turn/river with his A8 or whatever.

I'm rarely if ever concerned with results. My thinking that I didn't get max value is because I don't think I played it optimally - not because I didn't get max value.

I still think that smooth calling and ch-raising is a bit of a bigger +EV play here.