mid pocket pair with low flop

[sbgl]

New posting here; thanks for any advice. This is a hand that busted me out of a tourney.

3 table online SNG, starting chips 1500, early tournament, 2nd level blinds 15-30.

I have 1400 chips and 99 on the button.
UTG (w/2000 chips) limps, folds around to me, I flat call, SB folds, BB (w/1500 chips) checks.

At this point in the game, I can't say much about the UTG player except he's won a couple decent pots, and the BB player has shown loose aggressive tendencies, buying a couple pots regardless of position and then giving the chips back later.

Flop comes 8-4-2 with two spades.
BB bets over the pot (I think about 120), UTG flat calls quickly.
I with my overpair push all in, which is about a 3x raise of what's in the pot already.

UTG thinks just a couple seconds and calls and flips AQ spades, and rivers the flush to bust me.

Is this way too risky? A win gives me control all the way to the cash, probably. I think I was right not putting the guy on a made hand, although I was surprised at the preflop limp with AQ. I can't put him on anything just for calling the other guy's bet; he could easily just have a decent hand like JT or something.

Flat calling at that point seems not good, because leaving two players against me leaves me real vulnerable on the turn to another bet just holding a pair of 9s. I can't very much count on a blank on the turn. The next option, raising but without pushing all in, still shorts me a lot of chips.

I'm sure a lot of people will chastise me for not raising preflop, but I'm more questioning the post flop move here. Any thoughts?

 

[Jillychemung]

I don't have a problem with your push because as you said neither other player showed much strength. The BB overbet is weak and UTG had a ton of outs so he wasn't going anywhere.

 

[trentonlf]

More than likely UTG would have called a preflop raise and been pretty commited to the pot after the flop when he was 4 flushed.

So this was one of those unfortunate races you lost, and as races go you never know whats gonna happen.

g/l

 

[KenFischer]

Your play sounds fine to me. Sometimes you get the money in with the better hand and lose - that's just part of the game, and you shouldn't adjust your play just because of the result.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

You played it fine. And UTG was right to call with 13 outs to improve to a flush or pair his A or Q. You lost a coin flip, happens half the time in average...

 

[marble]

UTG made a great smooth call on the flop to get you in there, better odds for him. had u just called w/ hands like a smaller flush draw or 77 or 78, he would of been in better shape, prolly a shove on the turn when any overcard hit....having outs to back him in case of a call. i like his play.

as for your play. what did you think utg had when he just called the lead bet? two overcards if he's loosie goosey, good drawing hand, or a hand that crushes yours. think about it for a second.....you're praying he has A8...but he would of raised the lead bet with that hand. maybe just maybe he would of just called w/ 77 if he's a weak player. as it turns out he had a drawing hand so good all in on your part. just pointing out that you can't beat much except for what he had.

 

[newfyninja]

I'm one of those guys who likes to limp with any pair lower than tens. At a 9 or ten player table raising with low or mid PP just gets me on trouble. I prefer to limp or call a small raise and adjust my strategy from the flop. I probably would have ended up in your situation. I would have just raised the original post flop bet but as was pointed out he wasn't going anywhere. He might have checked the turn and let you see the river for free which might have saved you a few chips. Very conservative play I know but I'm like that. I respect your play too...go big or go home!!

 

[liba110]

smart play

Can i suggest you to play in other way next time.

If you have a pair like that you can make a raise in the pre flop 3 times the bb

If someone raises you all in you know that you are in loose loose situation because if someone raises you after you raised in early or mid position it is likely that he is strong, which means the gap of your precent is between 50% (he has over cards) to 20% (big pair) , if he had small pair he will call not raise you pre flop because he thinks tou are strong.

Dont forget it is early stage of the tournament, you have plenty of time to have good cards (blinds are 15/30) so it is not the time to play in a riskey way.

After the flop you have to check beacuse if he has flush draw he will call you and it is not the time to gamble now (you have time later)

He doent have big pair like qq and over bacause he should have raised pre flof but he didnt so you have to know that if he has low pair he will also check in the flop after you check because he thinks that you are strong

it is sometimes preferable to take a risk on a flush draw and to check in flop bacause if in the turn their is not spade you can push and he wll fold

or you can ask a question after the flop like small bet , if he calls you you know you are strong if he raises you you have to think if it is the time to gamble and to count your chips in pot odds

 

[sbgl]

Marble, I give the player credit for disguising the hand preflop, so it's a bit of a trap in that regard, but during the hand I have to go with the information I have. If it's later in the tournament, maybe I can make a read like that, maybe.

Regarding the call of the lead bet, it stinks of being weak, and basically my read was that UTG player knew that and would smooth call with most any hand that had a chance of completing. So I saw the smooth call as most likely weak. With the looseness of some players in these tourneys, I might have picked up a bad caller like A8 and dominated, or I could just make everyone fold, which honestly is what I expected.

If he has me beat slow playing a set or a higher pair, then I just take my lumps and say I got tricked, but you can't play scared of those hands in that situation. And if he has a monster draw and knows his odds, it's still a coin flip, although there is the occasional player that would fold that draw early on, so I get a bit of equity there too.

 

[marble]

Regarding the call of the lead bet, it stinks of being weak, and basically my read was that UTG player knew that and would smooth call with most any hand that had a chance of completing. So I saw the smooth call as most likely weak. With the looseness of some players in these tourneys, I might have picked up a bad caller like A8 and dominated, or I could just make everyone fold, which honestly is what I expected.
.

do you assume he's a weak player or do you know he's a weak player? if you had to guess with no info, i think it should be an average player. an average player will not call an overpot bet w/ just two overcards and a person behind yet to act imo. you gotta put yourself in HIS shoes. if you had A8 on his spot, you would prolly raise. what holding would you just flat call on his spot?

 

[beechleaf]

well he was call in with a ace high flush draw but if you would have call and waited too see if flush came you might have won rng keep shuffling till all bets are made then goes back too shuffling

 

[nudist30]

Just a thought

But why didnt you raise at least 2.5x to 3x the BB pre-flop? 2nd I would have probably raised it to 240 after the flop and then after the turn if the 3rd spade had not come up i would have gone all in it may have given him pause to not go forward with his hand. Just a thought.

 

[sbgl]

do you assume he's a weak player or do you know he's a weak player? if you had to guess with no info, i think it should be an average player. an average player will not call an overpot bet w/ just two overcards and a person behind yet to act imo. you gotta put yourself in HIS shoes. if you had A8 on his spot, you would prolly raise. what holding would you just flat call on his spot?

This is a good point. Thinking back to the hand, my feeling at the time was that I was giving him credit for seeing the lead bettor's aggressive tendencies. So actually maybe I'm giving him too much credit. The other guy, who was the one who led out, had already been figured out by most of the table. At that point he was dead money to anyone with smarts. I figured pushing in would drive them both off the hand, there was a very low chance I'd be dominated, and even against the most monster draws I was still basically a coin flip. Taking into account the possibility that he was calling just because he was giving him no credit for a hand, or he was calling to steal it later, I had to think I'm the only one with a made hand. Don't forget that UTG has a straight draw if he's holding ace-little.

There's a lot of hands I can put the guy on because the first bettor gets no respect for his bet. Against the heavy bettor, I'd call with a lot of hands because I know I'm getting paid off if i hit. I'm calling with A-10 off in that situation. Forget that he has AQ for a second. Pretend he has lesser drawing hand, like A10off. If you're in his shoes, you have an aggressive guy looking to steal a pot in front of you, and a button limper to act behind you. You have no idea if there's any strength on the button. Your options, with just about any hand, are to call it down and beat the guy when all the cards are up, or call the bluff and raise with anything.

Maybe I'm overreading UTG. I figured he was playing the player and not his hand.

 

[sbgl]

But why didnt you raise at least 2.5x to 3x the BB pre-flop? 2nd I would have probably raised it to 240 after the flop and then after the turn if the 3rd spade had not come up i would have gone all in it may have given him pause to not go forward with his hand. Just a thought.

I thought a long time about the decision to limp. I don't think it would have made a difference in this hand either way. It might not even have driven out the big blind. If it did leave me heads up, I probably would have been facing a lead bet and then raising the guy, at which point he puts me all in with drawing hand that's pretty sure to be a favorite in his eyes. Or he would have checked to me and then check raised me. Then I either fold and lose, or call and lose. I don't know whether I would have folded to a reraise or a check raise in that spot. Depends on how big they are.

I thought even harder about whether I should have just given a modest raise. The thing is, if I put in a minimum raise like you suggest, he has the odds to call no matter what his draw is. He almost has odds to call with two overcards, unless he thinks I have aces or kings or something like that. So he's not going anywhere with a small raise, as others have said above. Then on the turn, almost every card is a scare card for me. Although now I know that he probably would not have bet the turn unless he completed, I couldn't know that then. My goal was to make him fold a lesser drawing hand.