Live tourney w/ the Brunson

[titans4ever]

Live tournament hand so I will do my best to set it up. This is a weekly league so I know him fairly well. He tends to bet into pots with nothing and will push with just about anything. Your tipical LAG to maniac player.

20 min blinds for tournament
villian has me covered.
blinds 50/100
I have 3125 and am in the BB with


flops is
I check
villian make is 300
fold
fold
I raise to 1k
villian goes all-in (I am about 75% sure he only has a Q. KQ or QJ and is trying to protect it)
What is your play here?

I will tell you what I did tomorrow.

 

[robwhufc]

I'd have just called the flop not raised him (though you dont say what the pot size is pre-flop, what his position was, how many players were still active etc). You've got bottom pair and flush draw, so take a card if you've got odds, but i dont see what good raising did - it gave him the opportunity to make another bet (which he did), so now you've got to think you're behind, probably without pot odds to call.

 

[Black_Fox]

Knowing what you know, i'd consider this an easy call. Any diamond, 2 or 10 will give you the hand - call.

In a game where i've never played i probably wouldn't have even raised with this, i would have just flat called him, with you raising you gave a chance to a very aggressive player to fire at the pot again, whether he has top pair or nothing - he's putting you in an uncomfortable spot, a call would have been the best play - hoping to spike the ten, 2 or diamond on the turn and bust him. Unless he's got two bigger Diamonds which is probably unlikely - with you knowing that he likes to bluff, chances are that if he was holding AKs, KJs, AJs - there would have been a raise pre-flop?

I'd call his raise personally. But a re-raise from yourself was probably not the best play.

BF

 

[joeeagles]

Not sure here Titans. The odds are in your favor, with villain only having a Q you have 14 cards to help you, but 2 pair might not be enough if the board somehow pairs in the end. I ran cardplayer's calculator on this hand, and its about 50/50 with you being slightly ahead if he does have KQ or QJ.

If we look at it from odds standpoint, you're getting 2 to 1 so you should call. Being that its a tourney and not a cash game and you already are quite sure you'll need help to win this hand, I don't think its totally wrong if you decided to fold this. Its not an on-line tourney, its a live game against players you know very well, so your judgement on whether you can outplay these guys later and find better spots to put your money in needs to be taken into account, although there is never a garantee on that since you might run cold and your stack in the meantime is getting smaller. But if you fold now you still have over 20BB's.

Had this been on-line, I think I'd call. Seeing how you describe this player's tendencies accurately enough, I wouldn't disagree if you went for the fold. There is some information missing, like how many players are in the tourney, what the starting stacks were and how far behind you are right now compared to avg stack, but I'm just assuming there is room to fold or else it'd make no sense to post this.

I'll understand the decision you made either way.

 

[titans4ever]

Missing info:

My first time posting it got messed up and don't know how I missed. There were 4 who saw the flop. So pot at flop was 450.

I checked, he bet the 300 and the other two folded so we are heads up.

 

[mischman]

Doesnt just calling the flop give away our hand if a Diamond hits and we bet/raise?

I would of lead and if he raised fold. That way im the one putting the 300 in and not the 1k.

 

[dj11]

Save yourself, fold. Only Doyle can play 10/2 right.

But since you committed to at least feel this hand out, you owe yourself an explanation. Besides the possible paired Q, you neglect to mention the possibility he has 2 diamonds.

If you are going on the paired Q's read, then the real question is do you want to gamble on the flush, with something in the range of 30% chance of spiking it by the river. and putting your tourney life on the line?

If you answered yes then rethink that.

 

[titans4ever]

I hit the flop and had the draw so I tried to make a power move on someone I knew well. I made the move and now am paying for it with the all-in. The villian and I talked about it on the break and he could not at first understand how I made the play I did.

What he might push with:
Set or 2 pair - Only set I see here is 77. If he had QQ then he would have raised preflop and if he has the other two 2s then wow. I am drawing to 9 cards and have a 33% chance to hit. Not the best case.

Flush draw - Mine could be higher if he has suited connectors but not likely. I do have 2 of his outs. He could have up to 12 outs (7 for flush draw and possibly 6 overcards to my pair of 2s. That would make it a virtual coin flip.

Top pair or overpair - He may have smooth called with AA or KK but not likely. Either way, I have 14 outs and have a better than 50% chance to improve.

Tournament life:
This is the heart of the problem. You only have one life and I have the right odds to make the call. I just could not take this part of the play. If my read is right and he only has top pair, then I am in ok shape to improve and win the hand and double up.

Outcome:
I decided my read was right and made the call. He showed KQ and I caught my flush on river.

I realized after the hand what a bad place I put myself in by chosing to make a reraise there. I don't think it was a bad move but it could have cost me my tournament life. In a cash game, this is an insta call. But when you only have one life, these can be heart wrenching to say the least.

 

[dj11]

Well, you do bill yourself as being the Tournament Suckout Expert..........

 

[titans4ever]

Well, you do bill yourself as being the Tournament Suckout Expert..........

Is a 50/50 a suckout? You have QQ and I have AK. Who is the suckout?

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 2c Qd 7d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Td 2d 496 50.10 494 49.90 0 0.00 0.501
Kc Qh 494 49.90 496 50.10 0 0.00 0.499

I am ever so slightly the favorite if you even want to call it that.

My question is, I have the odds to call but is it worth risking you tournament life on a 50/50 with just two cards to go at any point in the tournament. This hand was in the middle for reference to this hand.