Live play start of final table

[mrsnake3695]

Ok I was in a live MTT the other day with about 90 players starting out and a pretty quick blind structure. Starting chips 4000 with blinds starting at 25/50 going up every 20 minutes.

It just got down to the final table (10) with blinds of 2000/4000. I have 29,000 chips which is right around average with 2 large stacks and 2 small stacks at the table. We redraw for the button and I end up in the BB first hand. The player to my immediate left is one of the large stacks although it's not that large, maybe twice what i have. No reads on villan since it's first hand of final table and we haven't played together before.

UTG limps for 4000 all other players fold to me and I check my option with K-5 of diamonds.

Flop comes Jh, 8d, 6d. I check, UTG bets 10,000. I have a flush draw and one over card to the board. The board is unlikely to have hit villan and I feel like he is trying to buy the pot here with his big stack. I have 2 options, fold or push. I sense he is weak and didn't get any help on the flop and I was in the BB and the board could have easily hit me. If I shove here and villan losses I am now chip leader and he is hurt. All these things lead me to believe he will might fold to a check/raise shove and if not I have at least 12 outs. I also want to establish a table image (assuming I'm still playing after this hand) that I can't be pushed around.

So I shove for 15,000 more. Villan goes into the tank and after about 5 minutes he says, "this is a bad call" and calls with 44. I don't hit on the turn or river and I'm out in 10th.

Ok now rip me up. Was my thinking way off here? Good move? Horrible move? What do you think?

By the way, 4 thru 10 place got very little most of the money was in the top 3 so there is very little point in just moving up in the money if you can't get into the top 3.

 

[CfPoker]

I think I'd have shoved on the flop. It as you said is unlikely to have helped him. The pot at that point stood at 10,000, your 25,000 would of made it 25,000 for him to call for a pot of 35,000, which given he had 44 I don't think he would have done.

By letting him bet first it was 25,000 to win a pot of 45,000. Not much of an improvement, but given it took him a long time to call (which is always a pain in live games with fast blinds) I feel he would have folded it had you pushed before him.

 

[pigpen02]

Twelve outs twice is a keeper IMO. Turns out you had 15. I agree with him, he made a BAD call. So many hands have him beat before his call and so many more can draw out. He was donkey lucky to win that one.

 

[mrsnake3695]

I think I'd have shoved on the flop. It as you said is unlikely to have helped him. The pot at that point stood at 10,000, your 25,000 would of made it 25,000 for him to call for a pot of 35,000, which given he had 44 I don't think he would have done.

By letting him bet first it was 25,000 to win a pot of 45,000. Not much of an improvement, but given it took him a long time to call (which is always a pain in live games with fast blinds) I feel he would have folded it had you pushed before him.

Yes I thought about the shove on the flop. 2 reasons I didn't. One, I thought this might seem like a steal and get him to call with an average hand that beats me, I thought the check raise would look much stronger. Two, if he checks behind I get a free card to my draw if he's slow playing a big pair or something. But In hindsight shoving the flop would have probably won here.

Anyone think folding is the right play?

 

[royalburrito24]

Anyone think folding is the right play?

The only case you have for folding is that you do not have much fold equity. I am happily shoving this mainly because it is so clear to us that he completely missed that flop. You played it correctly.
As everyone else has said, you should've pushed on the flop, but anyone can say that when they know what the villain's hand was.
It seemed to me like you got a little greedy and wanted that extra bet from the villain before you push all in and he folds, even thought that might not even be the case at all.
You got all your money in on a major draw, not much else you could really do there.
You had also said that you had at least 12 outs. That is obviously not true. He could have Axsuited in diamonds, giving you 3 outs. He could have a set, giving you less outs. He could have 2 pair, leaving you with less outs as well. It would probably be best to say you have at the most 15 outs if he is calling you with just A high and no draw, or lower pocket pair, like he had.
Again, you played the hand perfectly fine, and got unlucky that you didn't win the flip on the flop.

 

[alan1983]

I think itd been better to shove first also.

And it has little to do with villains hand. In fact against this hand i may like a check raise more.

But thing is his bet will commit him, he couldve made a bigger one or shoved his big stack and youd lose any equity.

 

[switch0723]

The only thing i would have done, is i wouldnt have let villain get commited the slightest amount. I would have open shoved this flop probably, sicne with 12 outs, we are about 48% to win from the position we are in. As it turned out you were favourite to win the hand, just got unlucky a suppose being favourite

 

[Tobmeister]

I think you made the right move based on the fact that you were BB and you could have very easily have hit that flop, so your push should've carried more weight with villain, and with your draw, you had many outs. In the end you got the best result against two fours, unlucky you didn't hit it though.

 

[Bentheman87]

You made a nice move and he made a bad call, 44 and 3 overcards on the flop c'mon... But when you check raise like that it really looks like you are on a draw, but even if villian suspected this (best case scenario for him) he's still only a small favorite to win. Like others said you should have made a semibluff first, and if he raises you, calculate your pot odds and you're probably getting the right price with 9 + 3 possible outs.

 

[mrsnake3695]

I think itd been better to shove first also.

And it has little to do with villains hand. In fact against this hand i may like a check raise more.

But thing is his bet will commit him, he couldve made a bigger one or shoved his big stack and youd lose any equity.

Well a shove on the flop was certainly the safer thing to do, I was actually expecting him to bet a little less, like 8,000 or even a mini bet of 4k. If he bets more that the 10K he did bet or shoves I fold here obviously.

Glad to see though that most posters so far don't think my play was out of line. I think if I had 5k more or if villan was a med stack instead of a large stack I would have had more fold equity with the move.

 

[OzExorcist]

Glad to see though that most posters so far don't think my play was out of line. I think if I had 5k more or if villan was a med stack instead of a large stack I would have had more fold equity with the move.

That's the first thing that occured to me: once he's bet 10K, you've got bugger all fold equity to go with your push. So you're pretty much accepting the ugly end of a coinflip if you push, especially if UTG is one of the big stacks.

I wouldn't have minded open-shoving the flop here, but once villain has bet the 10K I think I can maybe find a fold here. Yes, chances are they're on a steal, but I'd be inclined to let them have it and find a better spot to open-shove. Double up once, and you should be in with a shot at the top three (especially if it's through one of the bigger stacks).

 

[viking999]

Yes I thought about the shove on the flop. 2 reasons I didn't. One, I thought this might seem like a steal and get him to call with an average hand that beats me, I thought the check raise would look much stronger. Two, if he checks behind I get a free card to my draw if he's slow playing a big pair or something. But In hindsight shoving the flop would have probably won here.

1) I don't think betting out here looks more like a steal than any other bet into an uncontested pot. It's a weak flop, and you checked in the BB, so you could have easily hit it.

2) You don't have enough chips for the check raise. He called with 44 not because he really thought he had the best hand, he called because you let him get pot committed. If you just have a draw, you don't want people to get pot committed against you.

3) You're hoping for a check behind versus an UTG big stack when he's only up against the BB who has at best two random cards? Not very likely, IMO.

So in other words, I don't like the check raise, but there is no way folding is right. I think you played it the second best way.

 

[blankoblanco]

But when you check raise like that it really looks like you are on a draw, but even if villian suspected this (best case scenario for him) he's still only a small favorite to win.

actually villain was a 45% "dog".. a race really, but not a favorite at all. and if snake had held something like T9d/97d, the villain would have been less than a 30% dog to win