Live donkament AK hand vs drunk guy and fellow bigstack

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Details are sketchy (it was late) but I'll do my best.

£40+4 MTT w/one rebuy or addon, ~80 entrants, about 20 left, final table (9) pays. Rebuy period is over obv.

I have a decent stack (~3rd in chips probably) with ~40k. Blinds 800/1600. The guy to my right ("drunk guy") minraises on the button.

I look down at AKo. Consider the following.

- Drunk guy, if checked to, will push any flop with anything if the last hour or so is anything to go by. He is capable of laying hands down in the face of aggression, however. I don't know what the minraise means, I've never seen him do it before (he actually initially tried to under-raise too). He has ~16k in chips

- Big blind is a fellow bigstack. I think I have him covered by ~2-3k. He seems like a good player.

The question is, do I call preflop or raise? As I see it...

Advantages of calling vs raising:

- If I hit a flop, I can be very sure that the drunk guy will gift all his chips to me. If I check, he will push, and I will (usually) be happy.

- Even in the event of the BB calling, if I check and he lays out a small bet on the flop and Button folds, I'm pushing almost regardless. BB knows exactly what I know about the drunk guy (he's passed comment a few times), and so would almost certainly check with a big hand on the flop. As previously said, drunk guy is surprisingly capable of folding to aggression.

Advantages of raising preflop vs calling:

- 5.6k chips at this stage is not to be scoffed at, considering that it represents a ~15% stack increase. If I raise preflop, BB is only calling with a very narrow range, and button is likely folding too. I'm reasonably confident I'm taking it down preflop if I raise enough to put button allin.

- Just calling is potentially asking for big trouble. BB is being allowed to get in for cheap with a huge range with his big stack and huge pot odds. I'm also leaving myself open to a squeeze play if I call.

- I will miss most flops. If I miss and check, I'm not going to be able to call Button's push with AK-high. If I miss and lead, well, that's obviously risky.

What to do?

 

[Bombjack]

Tricky one. I'd quite like the play of putting in a big re-raise to 10,000. You've no reason to be any more afraid of the big stack on your left than you would in any other hand, and unless he's got a monster, he's not calling since taking on another big stack is risky, and it's not worth another 8400 to defend his blind. A big re-raise also simplifies your decision regarding the button, if he smooth calls. (If he pushes you obviously call.) You just put him all-in on the flop whatever comes up.

Becomes a bit more complicated if the big blind calls your re-raise. In that case, I'd check unless there's an A or K on the flop.

 

[ChuckTs]

I like smooth calling to set a trap. You have a chance to win a huge pot if you do hit the flop (~1/3), assuming that 'drunk guy' does actually push which it sounds like he more than likely will.

You have a chance to 1) either win a huge pot roughly 1 in 3 times (though probably skewed because of BB playing) or 2) win a small pot almost guaranteed (assuming button doesn't actually have a monster that beats you.)

I like taking the risk and hoping to hit the flop.

Drunk guy was pushbot TB, wasn't it?

 

[Dingodaddy23]

i like a re-raise to about 9k, drunk guy probably calls it and the BB only comes in with a monster. it would suck to push to have BB wake up with aces or something, but i think smooth calling is giving up a lot of value here against this opponet.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Drunk guy will not call a reraise without a good hand. His minraising on the button range is pretty much any two cards however.

Ignoring the chance of being squeezed by the big blind, if I call and see a flop and BB folds I essentially have over 20k in chips ready for me to take if I hit a flop. If I raise preflop and everyone folds, I will win a pot totalling 8k.

Essentially, I feel I don't need to put him allin preflop while I have only a smallish edge against his range (even against 96o and if he decides he just wants some sleep and calls I'm not a huge favourite) when calling preflop will allow me, even if it is only 1/3rd of the time when I hit, to get all his chips in with a huge edge on his 'pushing-when-checked-to' range (i.e. two cards). If I miss the flop, it's not that big a deal - I still have a comfortable 36k stack and I still have a drunk guy to my right dispensing chips. If I reraise preflop to only 9k, I will be almost committing myself to c-bet too, with obvious dangers, as I know he will push if I check to him (and I will be pretty pot committed in that scenario too).



Results~

I call, BB folds, flop KK9, I check, drunk guy allin, I call, he has T4o and I don't even notice that I hit quads on the river because he was drawing dead on the turn.

Obviously I was lucky to hit such a great flop, but I still think calling preflop was the best option here.

 

[F Paulsson]

If there had been more players involved in this hand, I would have opted for a raise, but your hand is in very good shape 3-way, and a lot of the hands the BB will call with are hands that you dominate.

NH.

 

[ChuckTs]

Even if BB tries a squeeze play, you could pull a donkeyfish reraise on him, no? He could be doing it with any two cards, and def won't be calling an overthetop raise from you with 77 or similar hands...

 

[Bombjack]

It's probably pretty close... raise and you win 5200 straight away. Call, and there's a chance BB will enter the pot as well. Whether he enters or not, if you hit the flop with an A or K 1/3 of the time, this won't always be the winning hand, so let's say you'll be hitting the flop with the winning hand 1/4 of the time to win the 5200 + the button's remaining 12000... making your EV for a call around 4500.

Back of the envelope calculations, but it shows that it's a marginal decision either way. I still prefer a raise.