lead instead?

[aliengenius]

fulltiltpoker Game #3715628933: Cardschat.com $100 Added (25992636), Table 3 - 40/80 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:45:59 ET - 2007/09/30
Seat 1: cjroc (1,815)
Seat 2: TrentsMomm (325)
Seat 3: bubbasbestbabe (2,340)
Seat 4: njpokerhoney (1,620)
Seat 5: Kenzie 96 (1,830)
Seat 6: flophappy65 (2,740)
Seat 7: bobbyjoeblue (1,080)
Seat 8: LoDog33 (750)
Seat 9: aliengenius (1,940)
njpokerhoney posts the small blind of 40
Kenzie 96 posts the big blind of 80
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to aliengenius [Jc Jd]
aliengenius: playing?
flophappy65 folds
bobbyjoeblue folds
LoDog33 folds
bubbasbestbabe: yeppa
aliengenius raises to 200
cjroc folds
TrentsMomm folds
bubbasbestbabe: and winning too
aliengenius: gl
bubbasbestbabe has 15 seconds left to act
bubbasbestbabe calls 200
njpokerhoney folds
aliengenius: ull have to beat me again
Kenzie 96 folds
*** FLOP *** [2s 8s Js]
aliengenius checks
bubbasbestbabe bets 520
aliengenius raises to 1,740, and is all in
bubbasbestbabe: np
bubbasbestbabe calls 1,220
aliengenius shows [Jc Jd]
bubbasbestbabe shows [2c As]
*** TURN *** [2s 8s Js] [5h]
*** RIVER *** [2s 8s Js 5h] [Qs]
aliengenius shows three of a kind, Jacks
bubbasbestbabe shows a flush, Ace high
bubbasbestbabe wins the pot (4,000) with a flush, Ace high
aliengenius stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4,000 | Rake 0
Board: [2s 8s Js 5h Qs]
Seat 1: cjroc didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: TrentsMomm didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: bubbasbestbabe (button) showed [2c As] and won (4,000) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 4: njpokerhoney (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: Kenzie 96 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: flophappy65 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: bobbyjoeblue didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: LoDog33 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: aliengenius showed [Jc Jd] and lost with three of a kind, Jacks

I knew she would bet the one card flush draw (esp. the ace), so I went for the check raise here. She is getting almost 2:1, but with only seven of the 14 outs she thinks she has.
The question is, even though I induced a mistake here, does leading or shoving in on the flop make her mistake even worse, but still one she will make?

In other words, are two pot bets better here? She may fold on the turn for the second pot bet, so you lose some EV there, but your variance of getting busted out of the tournament is reduced?

(of course these questions are not even valid if she will raises me on the flop)

 

[Alon Ipser]

In other words, are two pot bets better here? She may fold on the turn for the second pot bet, so you lose some EV there, but your variance of getting busted out of the tournament is reduced?

I think in a ring game your play is good if you think you will get the call but in a tourney you're risking a 1 out of 3 chance of getting knocked out. I think I play this a little slower and just call BBB's bet. BBB is an aggressive player, or used to be when I was playing more, and I think you could get a nice pot and reduce you chances of getting knocked out.

 

[aliengenius]

I think in a ring game your play is good if you think you will get the call but in a tourney you're risking a 1 out of 3 chance of getting knocked out. I think I play this a little slower and just call BBB's bet. BBB is an mega-hyper aggressive player, or used to be when I was playing more, and I think you could get a nice pot and reduce you chances of getting knocked out.

fyp

So you think call, then lead on the turn for the rest. That might be the best line, except if a spade falls on the turn. I'm not folding, since I have a redraw, and there may be hands I am still beating (however unlikely): so I'm in a real bad spot out of position on the turn when/if a spade falls. Being out of position was part of the consideration for getting it all in on the flop.

 

[dj11]

You taught her too well AG.

Her odds, close to 4-1 after your all-in, almost demand a call. Remember she knows you as well as you know her.

 

[ChuckTs]

Calling here is really bad; we're just letting the FD draw cheaply. I think you played it fine, AG.


fwiw I'd bet she'd stick you in with a pair + the nut flush draw had you led out.

 

[Alon Ipser]

Calling here is really bad; we're just letting the FD draw cheaply. I think you played it fine, AG.

I still think I call here. If a spade doesn't come on the turn, check again and she'll bet and then you go in. Same results, just cutting the odds of getting knocked out in half.

fwiw I'd bet she'd stick you in with a pair + the nut flush draw had you led out.

I agree

 

[ChuckTs]

I still think I call here. If a spade doesn't come on the turn, check again and she'll bet and then you go in. Same results, just cutting the odds of getting knocked out in half.

True in a sense, but we're letting her see a cheaper turn when we can shove and get her chips in without seeing another card. What the hell do we do when we see a spade drop on the turn after check-calling this hand, aside from smacking ourselves in the back of the head?

ps it's good to see you back, AI

 

[Alon Ipser]

True in a sense, but we're letting her see a cheaper turn when we can shove and get her chips in without seeing another card. What the hell do we do when we see a spade drop on the turn after check-calling this hand, aside from smacking ourselves in the back of the head?

ps it's good to see you back, AI

I think that's the whole thing here. If a spade pops on the turn, I fold to a bet and fight another day and as agressive as BBB is, it will probably be an all in anyway if the spade doesn't come.

Thanks Chuck.

 

[Katie Kards]

In my opinoin, you played it perfectly. Although you did not win the hand, you did get someone to call a bet for all of their chips with a worse hand. You were favored to win, and any time you can get someone to put their chips into a pot with you and you have a made hand and are favored to win, you did something right. Should he have called? It's up in the air. But you got the desired result, someone calling when you were favored to win. In the long run this will cause you to profit!

 

[robwhufc]

bubbasbestbabe calls 200
With A2os against a mid position raise? OK, let's carry on.
bubbasbestbabe bets 520
That's one way to find out where you are in the hand, bet 100% of the pot! 220 chips wasted, he'd have folded to a 300 bet if he'd whiffed, now you're pot committed to a re-raise.
aliengenius raises to 1,740, and is all in
bubbasbestbabe calls 1,220
Yep pot committed, but only 7 live outs.
bubbasbestbabe wins the pot (4,000) with a flush, Ace high
Yup

^^^^^^^^^

Pretty standard.

 

[viking999]

The question is, even though I induced a mistake here, does leading or shoving in on the flop make her mistake even worse, but still one she will make?

In other words, are two pot bets better here? She may fold on the turn for the second pot bet, so you lose some EV there, but your variance of getting busted out of the tournament is reduced?

I guess it depends. If she still calls a big bet on the turn, she's making a bigger mistake, because her odds are much worse. If she folds, then she's made less of a mistake, but you've lessened the risk of busting.

I myself don't worry about mitigating risk so much when I'm a big favorite. Here, I'd be a 3:1 favorite over any the flush draw, so if there's a way of getting all the chips in right there, I'm taking it.

I think another factor here is that full house redraws become almost irrelevant if the turn's a total blank. In other words, you're in better shape on the turn, but it's not as significant a change as if you had a more vulnerable hand. In this case the blank takes him from 28% to 18%. If you had AA versus his Ac7s, he would go from 37% to 20%. So you don't gain as much safety by waiting for the turn.