Last stages of CC Freeroll NLHE: Is 44 good enough to call this shove?

[NoWuckingFurries]

Full Tilt, 600/1,200 blinds, 150 ante NL Hold'em Tourney, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

grilldoggy: 8,727 (7.3 bb)
Jodieblonde: 8,585 (7.2 bb)
NoWuckinFurries: 14,327 (11.9 bb)
1bourbon: 4,539 (3.8 bb)
DeepchapChopra: 7,854 (6.5 bb)
chapeltuno: 21,838 (18.2 bb)

Pre-Flop: NoWuckinFurries is SB with 4

4

DeepchapChopra raises to 7,704 and is all-in, 3 folds

Last two tables of the CC freeroll, I am the SB and there is a shove UTG, everyone else folds - what do I do?

 

[jokish123]

I would probably fold. Usually betting from UTG means power...so there is no sense risking half your stack in hopes of your 44 holding out against a hand like AK, AQ, or maybe a higher pocket pair...and im not all that good with percentages and pot odds but i am pretty sure that you would be the underdog here. So yeah, definitely i would fold this hand.

 

[DogzBestFrnd]

At this point 1/2 your stack might as well be all of it with 44 IMO. If you wouldnt shove the 44 all in then you should fold it. Or else next hand your the one with 6BBs.
Anything under 10 10 here I would fold.

 

[Makwa]

Insta fold for me, to a UTG raise. I would only play this for real cheap, I agree 10s is prob yr lowest calling pr... even then I would be wary of an overpair (and knowing this player this is strong possibility).

 

[baudib1]

UTG doesn't mean power in this case, he should be shoving a wide range because the blinds are about to eat him. However, we are not a big favorite over a random hand and we don't even close the action...it's not very often that calling half your stack with 44 is a good idea, and the BB should be coming along with a wide range.

 

[NoWuckingFurries]

Hey Jokish you proved my prediction wrong and went on to win the freeroll - congratulations!

Thanks for the input peeps, the person in question was not too delighted that I had called and sucked out on him, and thanks to your expert analysis I can now see why. Sorry Poker Orifice!

 

[Xaras23]

i probably fold your hand! maybe he has a higher pocket or a big Ace! 44 ia a very vulnerable pair!

 

[poloporasa]

At this point I would fold as well.
As long as if you are not the first in the hand folding is the right decision. Like baudib1 said, against a random hand the chances with are 57,023%.
Besides that there are 4 players at your tabel with less chips than you. Wait for a better,stronger hand to get some action.

But obviously it worked out fine this time

 

[cardplayer52]

i hate to answer a question with a question. but what range of hands do you put him on? with a short stack he could be shoveing a wide range of hands here. but 44? you really played here? i think the best you are hoping for here is 2 over cards. i would have to say w/44 your either a very slight favorite or a big under dog. although if it were folded to me i would open/shove 44 there would be no way i would call an allin. easy fold here IMO.

 

[ElTrain]

Fold and wait for a better spot. Small pairs rarely hold up and there is no reason for you to risk 1/2 your stack here.

 

[NoWuckingFurries]

Full Tilt, 600/1,200 blinds, 150 ante NL Hold'em Tourney, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

grilldoggy: 8,727 (7.3 bb)
Jodieblonde: 8,585 (7.2 bb)
NoWuckinFurries: 14,327 (11.9 bb)
1bourbon: 4,539 (3.8 bb)
DeepchapChopra: 7,854 (6.5 bb)
chapeltuno: 21,838 (18.2 bb)

Pre-Flop: NoWuckinFurries is SB with 4

4

DeepchapChopra raises to 7,704 and is all-in, 3 folds, NoWuckinFurries calls 7,104, 1bourbon folds

Flop: (17,508) K

9

J

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
Turn: (17,508) K

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: (17,508) 3

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
Results: 17,508 pot
DeepchapChopra showed T

A

(a pair of Kings) and lost (-7,854 net)
NoWuckinFurries showed 4

4

(two pairs, Kings and Fours) and won 17,508 (9,654 net)

 

[Poker Orifice]

Hey Jokish you proved my prediction wrong and went on to win the freeroll - congratulations!

Thanks for the input peeps, the person in question was not too delighted that I had called and sucked out on him, and thanks to your expert analysis I can now see why. Sorry Poker Orifice!

No worries!
I actually watched the game play out for ya and personally I would've posted some of the HH's from the fin. table.
When we're looking to call we need to calculate our opponent's likely ranges (based on image, position & the situation they're in).

I'm sure I was probably pissed here that you called me this light but more so from a series of brutal beatdowns I'd taken over the last week or so. Seems I get called & lose 80/20's regularly when villain calls wide as hell on low pp (33, 44, 55) with a couple of shorties on the table right on the bubble, calling for the majority of their stack. Super bad plays from an ICM & EV perspective. I mean.. on the bubble with a couple of real shorties, calling ranges often need to be QQ or even KK+ when players are still relatively deepstacked (not in the CC freeroll case, I'm referring more to some others here now).
When considering pushing I personally am always taking into consideration what my opponent's image and likely ranges are, often times realizing that they have no understanding of ICM & EV.

I apologize if I had acted inappropriately at the time. Bubbling to brutal calls in 7 of 9 mtts on the weekend didn't really help me any. BUT.. perhaps it helped me ALOT.... poker mindset & poker psychology is no doubt the biggest leak in my game.
Congrats on the game btw!!

 

[Poker Orifice]

UTG doesn't mean power in this case, he should be shoving a wide range because the blinds are about to eat him. However, we are not a big favorite over a random hand and we don't even close the action...it's not very often that calling half your stack with 44 is a good idea, and the BB should be coming along with a wide range.

Yes.. .generally this is true!... BUT... utg was well aware that some opponents here were more than capable of calling very wide and up to this point, utg player had shown down big hands & a conservative tight image.
Don't we consider factoring in that utg is aware that some players will be calling real wide... or do we stick to more level1 thinking here? (curious).

 

[NoWuckingFurries]

I apologize if I had acted inappropriately at the time.

No apologies needed, and you certainly didn't behave inappropriately. I tend to loosen up a bit at the final table, whereas judging by the HH feedback I should actually probably at that stage be a lot more cautious, and take more time to calculate whether a lot of these hands are really worth taking on.

 

[Bobmurphy07]

I would fold to an UTG shove here, I mean typically you're going to need a stronger hand to shove UTG and also with something like 44 you're at best racing any 2 cards. I mean you're flipping coins vs J9 here and my guess is he's holding better than that.