KT From EP

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RFirmino96

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With a very tight image on the table i open a KT suited from the UTG + 1 with a 2.2X raise. The CO calls and the flop come Ad2dJc. The pot had around 2600 chips and a bet 2000. After thinking a lot and show a lot of weakness he called ( he clearly wasnt Hollywooding). So I put him on a jack, like QJ, or KJ, or on a flush draw, he was short stack and after the call he has about 2000chips left. So a 8h came on the river and i shoved. He thinks a little the call my bluff. He has AToff. I should stopped the bluff after the call on te flop? And what you think about his call on the flop?
 
Bob23bk

Bob23bk

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It's impossible to give you a decent analysis without a better understanding of the table, the players, etc... For instance, having no idea how many chips CO has behind or what his stats look like make this a very blind situation. Have a look at the Hand Analysis Sticky and see if you can post your hand properly formatted- I'm sure you'll get some great analysis then :)
 
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trent32la

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It's impossible to give you a decent analysis without a better understanding of the table, the players, etc... For instance, having no idea how many chips CO has behind or what his stats look like make this a very blind situation. Have a look at the Hand Analysis Sticky and see if you can post your hand properly formatted- I'm sure you'll get some great analysis then :)
+1 > Without stack sizes, the situation of the tourney, VPIP/PFR numbers, the buy-in, is it an STT or MTT etc, this hand is very hard to give legit analysis on.

All I can say is bet smaller (like 40-50% of the pot) on the flop and check the turn. Your bluff is very spewy considering the turn did not really change anything.
 
Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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It doesn't seem like effective stacks are deep enough for this kind of play. If the pot was headsup to the flop at 2,600 that must mean blinds were about 200/400. (400x2.2 = 880 x 2 = 1,760+400+200=2,360 plus antes=2,600). and if he had 2,000 left after calling your 2,000 flop bet and calling your 880 preflop bet then he only had about 5,000 to start which is only about 12BB.

Preflop: raising and folding are both OK, again without knowing your stack size it's tough to say. But if you were also in the neighborhood of 12-20bb then folding is better. If you're raising a marginal hand from EP you have to believe that you can usually outplay your opponents post flop OR the blinds are tight and the table will give you credit for a real hand fairly often to make this profitable as a steal. Stealing from EP is pretty tough, so generally you will be playing this hand for it's post-flop playability....and for that fairly deep stacks are generally required.

Flop: that is a pretty decent flop for our hand. But, it is also a pretty good flop for our opponent's range. assuming he's got 4,000 behind if you Cbet pretty much any amount and he jams, you'll be priced in to call with your 12 outs twice. (If you Cbet half the pot for 1,300 and he jams 4,000 into 3,900 you'll only have to call 2,700 to win 7,900 so you're getting 3:1. Pretty much mandatory call). So I don't like Cbetting. If you're forced to call a jam anyways, I'd rather take that move away from him by jamming myself. But jamming doesn't make much sense either. risking 4,000 to win the 2,600 in the pot and you'll generally only get called by sets, 2pair and AK or better combo draws. so shoving the flop isn't a great choice either. Which leaves us with checking. he might check behind giving us a free card at our draw. Or he might bet, opening us up for a check raise jam and realizing the full equity of our hand PLUS some fold equity. If you put him on a Jack, he would probably fold a jack to your check raise. He would probably also fold weak aces....AT would be borderline.

If you check the flop and he checks behind playing the turn will be just as tricky as the flop; except now you've lost the betting lead and your draw is a LOT weaker. So, I'd be inclined to check/fold the turn. Weak line, I know.

Because of all of these problems, maybe you are beginning to see why raising with marginal hands in early position and shallow stacks is generally not recommended. Good options are hard to find, even on pretty good flops. But out of all of those, check raising the flop seems to be the best option.
 
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