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Inscore77
Legend
Silver Level
I like the raise, but do you have any reads on this player? Has he been playing tight, loose, etc? Chances are he has caught a pretty good hand, or he just thinks you are trying to steal, and he is making a resteal attempt. Regardless, I would fold. Do not take this as the best advice in the world though, it's my first attempt at trying to analyze another player's play. Chances are very good I could be wrong
F
Fermion5
Enthusiast
Silver Level
If I calculated it right, there's 2270 in the pot and you need to call 1420. Need 38%+ chance to win to justify calling. You are less than 38% to win if he has QQ, KK, AA, AQ, AK.
No problem with the raise except you did raise 4x instead of standard 3x. Not sure if there was a reason for that.
All comes down to read here. If you think he's shoving hands weak as like 44 or A9 then call is good. If you think he's rarely shoving hands weaker than QQ, AQ then fold is good.
I lean toward fold b/c your hand isn't so strong and odds not so great, but i'm a nit.
No problem with the raise except you did raise 4x instead of standard 3x. Not sure if there was a reason for that.
All comes down to read here. If you think he's shoving hands weak as like 44 or A9 then call is good. If you think he's rarely shoving hands weaker than QQ, AQ then fold is good.
I lean toward fold b/c your hand isn't so strong and odds not so great, but i'm a nit.
ABorges
Rock Star
Silver Level
I second Fermion, if there's a good possibility he's shoving 22+, AT+, I probably call this, but people at these stakes get tighter than that when it comes to pushing. Borderline fold, I think. Don't raise over 3 blinds with no limpers, it's almost never good by the way.
ChuckTs
Legend
Silver Level
When you're going for a steal/value raise you have to consider the stack sizes of the opponents behind you and size your raise accordingly.
Your goal in this hand was (or at least should) not be to call off 20bbs with KQ, but to either take the blinds, build a pot against a worse hand or get some fold equity vs a better hand. By opening for 400 you're getting close to committing yourself to a call against the 20bb player.
As played you're getting 1.6:1, so we basically have to see a range that's at the very least this big:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.045% 33.17% 04.87% 55662100 8179928.50 { KhQs }
Hand 1: 61.955% 57.08% 04.87% 95783835 8179928.50 { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo }
So if you think he's pushing wider than this, call. Otherwise, fold.
Your goal in this hand was (or at least should) not be to call off 20bbs with KQ, but to either take the blinds, build a pot against a worse hand or get some fold equity vs a better hand. By opening for 400 you're getting close to committing yourself to a call against the 20bb player.
As played you're getting 1.6:1, so we basically have to see a range that's at the very least this big:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.045% 33.17% 04.87% 55662100 8179928.50 { KhQs }
Hand 1: 61.955% 57.08% 04.87% 95783835 8179928.50 { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo }
So if you think he's pushing wider than this, call. Otherwise, fold.
insolitude
Rock Star
Silver Level
Sounds like I really need to get serious about learning about player reads/notes. Once PT3 is released I'll have access to HUD, so that will help. Of you guys who multi-table and use HUD, what % of your player read is based on those numbers?
Dorkus Malorkus
HELLO INTERNET
Silver Level
I don't think your average player is pushing here with KTs/QJs, but maybe I'm giving him too much credit. I think we can add a few more PPs to his range, but that isn't going to affect the numbers a great deal.
Looks like a fold to me. Seems like calling is slightly -cEV, without even factoring in tournament considerations and $EV.
Raise 3BBs pre and you can fold this easily, though.
shinedown.45
Legend
Silver Level
Easy fold, your goal with-in the first and part of the second hour is to accumulate chips and survive, judging by the blind level, your going into your first break or the level had just changed.
No need to gamble here just yet.
No need to gamble here just yet.
KenFischer
Rock Star
Silver Level
Raising was the right move if you are playing this hand - nothing wrong with that at all. You definitely don't want to limp here.
I'm probably folding against this reraise though - calling and losing would be a major setback, and you are still in great shape if you fold. There will be better spots to race than this.
I'm probably folding against this reraise though - calling and losing would be a major setback, and you are still in great shape if you fold. There will be better spots to race than this.