K9s in the BB

[royalburrito24]

in the BB and somewhat near the money, can a call be justifiable here?

full tilt poker Game #3946302342: $5 + $0.50 Tournament (29499415), Table 14 - 200/400 Ante 50 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:57:53 ET - 2007/10/23
Seat 1: AquaVelvet (8,052)
Seat 2: macd48 (3,571)
Seat 3: willthegreat24 (6,556)
Seat 4: pifart30 (11,357)
Seat 5: mavcat (11,623)
Seat 6: sanchez (8,556)
Seat 7: Hendrix two 7 (4,248)
Seat 8: CousinGoose (3,470)
Seat 9: Ardous (13,074)
AquaVelvet antes 50
macd48 antes 50
willthegreat24 antes 50
pifart30 antes 50
mavcat antes 50
sanchez antes 50
Hendrix two 7 antes 50
CousinGoose antes 50
Ardous antes 50
macd48 posts the small blind of 200
willthegreat24 posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to willthegreat24 [Ks 9s]
pifart30 has 15 seconds left to act
pifart30 folds
mavcat folds
sanchez folds
Hendrix two 7 folds
CousinGoose folds
Ardous folds
AquaVelvet folds
macd48 raises to 3,521, and is all in
willthegreat24 has 15 seconds left to act
willthegreat24????

 

[ChuckTs]

Any reads? Without a good read telling me he's doing this with a very wide range, I'm saving my chips. There are definitely spots where I'm calling this though.

 

[royalburrito24]

my read on the player wasnt loose, but wasnt tight either....

seemed like he was picking his spots well, so i was inclined to call this

 

[blankoblanco]

fold for me without really appropriate reads. if he's pushing this with the range he should be, you're better than a coinflip. problem is most people push 10 BB stacks tighter than is considered optimal in MTTs, so you're often more like 40%. you don't need to call off over half your stack here. find a spot where you can get first in vig and add fold equity to your side.

 

[jaketrevvor]

Without any sort of read its very hard to call in this spot, but if we give macd48 a typical range of a hand that a typical person would push with with 10 BBs at these sort of stakes (entirely excluding all reads) namely: JJ-22,A2s+,K7s+,Q8s+,A2o+,K9o+,QTo+ (excluding AA,KK,QQ which we assume he slowplays) then your preflop equity with K9s against this range is 43.3%. The pot is 4471 so you are getting 1.25 to 1 on your call, with your odds of beating his range of hands being 1.31 to 1.

So very theoretically you should fold your K9s here. But this is all calculated with the absence of any information on your opponent and the odds are close enough that calling is very almost the right play also, so effectively it is irrelavent if you call or fold as both have an Effective Value of (very nearly) 0.

jt

 

[royalburrito24]

well the thing is, i switched it around, and i was the one who pushed and was called by the K9s and thought it might have been a questionable call....

i pushed all in with the 10BB stack and 65 offsuit....

hit a pair but the board paired a couple times to give him better 2 pair with the king kicker

oh well, just wondering what you guys thought of his call, but from what i see in your replies, the call was correct