JJ late in SNG facing action

[rob5775]

Here goes:

Blinds are 240/120 late in a $5 SNG. Table was very loose/passive early but has tightened considerably. I have JJ utg and raise 3x. The short stack, spoon (SB) shoves and GP2 just smooth calls. GP2's relevant PT stats are 21 vp$p and 10 pfa. Spoon is 28 vp and 7 pf. Both players have made some horrendous calls/shoves that are still on my mind.

What's our move?



Stacks: - Gp2 with 5295 - rob5775 with 3160 - SupaFupa with 1675 - Aces2323 with 1230 - spoon76 with 2140

Site: full tilt poker
- Dealt to rob5775:

- Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
- rob5775 raises to 720
- spoon76 raises to 2,140, and is all in
- Gp2 calls [1,900]
- Folds: 2

 

[ChuckTs]

With players as bad as you say they are, I like shoving here to get full value from our jacks, or possibly to get Gp2 out (though I doubt it considering the pot size).

Had Gp2 been a sensible player that would be likely to check it down, I'd be more inclined to just call and check it down along with him, or at least see if we can get to a rag flop and shove to protect vs overcards.

 

[rob5775]

Thanks Chuck, good reply. BTW, my image has been very loose aggressive (my stats were something like 35/20/5 if I remember correctly). Being that it was a SNG I was also considering ICM... something I have been trying to improve to elevate my SNG ROI and ITM (ug, so many abbreviations!).

I don't believe I can simply call here (as Chuck pointed out), my only options are shove/fold. Am I getting the correct tournement equity to do so? Or is my EV to fold?

 

[loopmeister]

I agree. A call is out of the question. You'll be waaayy pot-committed, and what if a Q/K/A comes on the flop?

You have a (albeit small) of securing some dead money through GP2 folding by pushing, giving you 2:1 effective pot odds with JJ - not quite enough to make going against AA/KK/QQ worthwhile, but definitely worthwhile against anything else.

But if GP2 knows what he's doing, he'll know this and won't risk being squeezed with you still to act, so a call represents real strength (IF he knows what he's doing. For a $5 SNG, this is debateable).

A fold leaves you with 2440 chips and mid-placed if spoon wins, or 2nd with the big stack on your right if gp2 wins.

On a tight table, I like the fold.

You say the table was L/P but has tightened as we near the money - sounds donkish, so here I push figuring I'm against Ax and 66.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Horrible spot - given your reads I just about prefer shoving to folding here.

If it were the bubble I'd probably fold, as it would be less likely that the other guys are making silly moves, but with 5 players left and with reads on the two relevant parties as bad I can just about justify a shove here.

 

[rob5775]

My original thoughts were to shove also. I have been trying to think through my decisions of late as I usually make rash calls for the majority of my chips. The longer I contemplated my decision, the more I ignored my reads of the two players involved.

The smooth call by GP2 bewildered me. I couldn't figure out if she had a monster (AA/KK) and was inviting me along or if she was somewhat weak and hoped to knock out a player on the cheap. As I stated above she had made some previous calls that were (figuratively speaking) horrible. Like calling off half her stack with 33 preflop.

I honestly felt one of the two had a over pair, or I was going to have to dodge a minimum of two over cards. Best case scenario was a under pair and something like AT/AJ/KQ. I felt I could outplay any of the players at the table, thus that completed my decision.



Stacks: - Gp2 with 5295 - rob5775 with 3160 - SupaFupa with 1675 - Aces2323 with 1230 - spoon76 with 2140

Site: Full Tilt Poker
- Dealt to rob5775:

Preflop:
- rob5775 raises to 720
- spoon76 raises to 2,140, and is all in
- Gp2 calls [1,900]
- spoon76 shows :

- Gp2 shows :

- Folds: 3
- Potsize: 5000
Flop:

- Potsize: 5000
Turn:

- Potsize: 5000
River:

- spoon76 shows a pair of Tens
- Gp2 shows Ace Queen high
- spoon76 wins the pot (5,000) with a pair of Tens

Meh. My wife (who is a bigger nit then me, go figure) thought I made the correct fold. I wasn't so sure... thats why I posted this.

 

[ChuckTs]

Well no offense, but with your stack (especially after your fold), you really don't have many ways to outplay your opponents. I still think it's a push, regardless of results. You may be up against KQ and AT or even two overpairs, but often enough I think you're seeing a situation where you're a significant favourite.

 

[rob5775]

No offense taken Chuck... I made a major no-no in not taking account my stack after the raise. When I folded, I essentially put myself into a shove/fold situation anyways with me having around 10 bbs. A shove would have made more sense with the JJ... I simply talked myself out of it.

I ended up squeaking into third, where if I had made the correct decision here I probably would have been first or second.

 

[NineLions]

Had Gp2 been a sensible player that would be likely to check it down, I'd be more inclined to just call and check it down along with him, or at least see if we can get to a rag flop and shove to protect vs overcards.

If you get a rag flop, I guess you should shove. I think I'm too polite, or too focused on getting someone out and would check it down without thinking.

 

[ChuckTs]

Ya, my comment was silly anyways.

Considering what we'll be left with after making a call, it's just wrong. We'll be left with t1000 and a t4400 pot which is ridiculous. We'd also be giving any overcards odds to call on a rag flop anyways.

I'm still shoving