ITM Turbo SNG - Flopped straight draw on flop

[jeffred1111]

Villain is your average player: passive preflop and somewhat agressive on flop, especially when checked to him. One of his tendencies is to slowplay his good hands. For example, he limped in with 77 in the SB when button had folded 3 handed.

pokerstars Game #10917280076: Tournament #55348879, $3.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2007/07/13 - 12:32:36 (ET)
Table '55348879 1' 10-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 3: bleavnluck (3010 in chips)
Seat 6: jeffred1111 (5835 in chips)
Seat 9: Marek125 (6155 in chips)
bleavnluck: posts the ante 50
jeffred1111: posts the ante 50
Marek125: posts the ante 50
bleavnluck: posts small blind 300
jeffred1111: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jeffred1111 [8h 6h]
Marek125: folds
bleavnluck: calls 300
jeffred1111: checks
*** FLOP *** [3s 5s 4d]
bleavnluck: bets 1200
jeffred1111: ???

What do we do here ? We are probably the ones drawing and villain range includes overcards, small pair, and even set since he limps in with his PP a lot (he even limped JJ at level II). We have a great chance of kicking him out right here by gambling, but at the same time, we still have a comfy chip stack if we fold.

 

[ChuckTs]

We've got very little fold equity here, and obviously a very marginal holding (actually not a holding at all, just a draw). Just fold it and stick to blind steals.

Unless you've got a strong feeling he's trying to buy the pot here, we have to fold.

 

[dj11]

Final 3. That might be considered a min raise , suggesting maybe 2 high spades, or maybe he hit a pair. He wants to take it down right now, but is either not so sure about his holdings or totally solid (trips or 2 pair, or maybe he made a straight) about them and is slow playing you. This looks to be a turbo, and nobody has long to live here, the blinds will get you all very shortly.

I think you have to call here. A raise is too risky. He has demonstrated the power of the first to act, and has taken position away from you. You do not want to give him a chance to cap it here.

You have potential, but like with electricity, potential (voltage) is nothing till the switch gets flicked (made hand).

Those considerations get me calling here, more than willing to fold next bet.

 

[jeffred1111]

Final 3. That might be considered a min raise , suggesting maybe 2 high spades, or maybe he hit a pair. He wants to take it down right now, but is either not so sure about his holdings or totally solid (trips or 2 pair, or maybe he made a straight) about them and is slow playing you. This looks to be a turbo, and nobody has long to live here, the blinds will get you all very shortly.

I think you have to call here. A raise is too risky. He has demonstrated the power of the first to act, and has taken position away from you. You do not want to give him a chance to cap it here.

You have potential, but like with electricity, potential (voltage) is nothing till the switch gets flicked (made hand).

Those considerations get me calling here, more than willing to fold next bet.

Yes, but if we call we don't get proper odds to do so and have maybe very little implied odds unless he has something totally solid (and I think any player worth his salt won't bet pot on trips right on the flop): if the 7 or 2 hits, opponent will probably check/fold and will very rarely pay us off for drawing without proper odds.

And if we call and the turn is a blank, or even worse, we pair our 6 or 8, the straight potential rockets through the roof and we have to fold to his all-in bet thus empowering the shortstack and crippling us.

 

[ChuckTs]

We absolutely cannot call here dj. We're only giving villain another chance to push us off the pot on the turn, and we'll be forced to fold most of the time and leave ourself even more shortstacked than we already are.

Push/fold, and I say fold and use first in vig to your advantage.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Calling is absolutely the worst thing we could do here. It's invariably never correct to call off such a huge portion of one's stack, and here it's doubly awful because we're only guaranteeing seeing one more card before we're likely confronted with a shove from villain - and most of the time we will blank the turn and be left wondering whether to fold and rescue what's left of our decimated stack or call and gambooooool with only one card to come.

Here, as Chuck said, we don't have a lot of fold equity - villain has made a bet which is in all essence pot committing him. So essentially by shoving here what we would be doing wouldn't be a world away from calling a shove with a straight draw (and overs that may well not be good), and we wouldn't do that, right?

Just fold, don't risk going broke in an unraised pot with a straight draw. I'd rather fold here and shove any two on my next button than shove here.

 

[dj11]

14 outs that will improve our hand, 8 of which will most likely win.

3 handed final table. There just are not that many hands left here irregardless of what we do.

Given that at this point most everyone will agree the game approaches being a crapshoot, with blinds coming fast, you want to wait? Jeff did good describing the situation, but we don't know how soon the blinds change, with the blind change the antes will rise.

The only real alternative for me is to shove here, and that seems wrong.

Your arguments are valid, where as I am seeing it from a different POV, I see that the game is pushing, more so than villain.

 

[jeffred1111]

14 outs that will improve our hand, 8 of which will most likely win.

3 handed final table. There just are not that many hands left here irregardless of what we do.

Given that at this point most everyone will agree the game approaches being a crapshoot, with blinds coming fast, you want to wait? Jeff did good describing the situation, but we don't know how soon the blinds change, with the blind change the antes will rise.

The only real alternative for me is to shove here, and that seems wrong.

Your arguments are valid, where as I am seeing it from a different POV, I see that the game is pushing, more so than villain.

True, but given the stakes at wich I'm playing, some people, like villain here, tend to freeze up, even when in the money so why gamble while we could just fold, lose the 600 and go back to stealing ?

Results: I shoved, hoping to catch and get him out. Plus, he had already bailed out of big pots after committing himself, so my fold equity wasn't all that low (but still very low). I did not catch and ended up making a huge mistake (had I caught, I still would've made a mistake, but a mistake that pays off). I knew I was facing an opponent I could outplay in a better situation, but I still tried to go the brute force way and it backfired.

And blinds increase every 5 minutes, so yes, the thing turns a crapshoot, wich is sometimes good when you get ITM shorstacked, but you sually need 3x the next guy in chips if you want to have a serious shot at taking it (since you'll have to call all-ins with hands that you would rather not in a regular SNG). But in the other hand, the play is so bad that you're guaranteed (well, almost) 3rd place if you play smart poker (wich I obviously did not in this example).

 

[rob5775]

14 outs that will improve our hand, 8 of which will most likely win.

3 handed final table. There just are not that many hands left here irregardless of what we do.

Given that at this point most everyone will agree the game approaches being a crapshoot, with blinds coming fast, you want to wait? Jeff did good describing the situation, but we don't know how soon the blinds change, with the blind change the antes will rise.

The only real alternative for me is to shove here, and that seems wrong.

Your arguments are valid, where as I am seeing it from a different POV, I see that the game is pushing, more so than villain.

Considering OP read of villian at this point, I would discount any outs for the 8 or 6. It is also possible that he's betting his flush (if he didn't limp with a PP as the OP said is possible) so you can't count the 7 and 2 of spades as clean outs. So I'm thinking 6 clean outs. There is no way in this situation, in the forced blind, I will commit any more chips. Remember, small hand - small pot. The pot is no longer small, so we fold. We are statistically behind, and if we hit with some of our "outs"- we are not sure if we are ahead. Easy fold.

 

[Emperor IX]

We've got very little fold equity here, and obviously a very marginal holding (actually not a holding at all, just a draw). Just fold it and stick to blind steals.

Unless you've got a strong feeling he's trying to buy the pot here, we have to fold.

I really need to look up fold equity damnit. lol

But yeah for me this is a standard fold here. One hole I ahve in my game is that I love to chase, but from a strategic standpoint right here, he's going to make you pay a LOT to see it, and it's just not worth it. Wait for a better spot.