Was it obvious?

[Four Dogs]

This happend about 5 hands into a 9p turbo. Neither of us had played a hand yet. I got totally bluffed out of this pot. After I let it go, hoosierguy showed J8o in what IMO was an amazing bluff. Not sure how he had such a good read on me. I congratulated him on a nice bluff and let him know that I had folded the best hand. Another player bsnbarber immediately commented that it was Obvious. I don't think it was, but the last time I posted a hand, my reasoning took a brutal pillaring from nearly everyone who bothered to respond. Even if it wasn't obvious, was it a good laydown?
fulltiltpoker Game #2468409873: $6 + $0.50 Sit & Go (Turbo) (18727484) Table 1 - 20/40 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:36:53 ET - 2007/05/20
Seat 1: Ho0n212 (1 485)
Seat 2: bulldog67 (1 125)
Seat 3: Four Dogs (1 440)
Seat 4: GameReddy (930)
Seat 5: hoosierguy2 (1 320)
Seat 6: sufjan85 (1 745)
Seat 7: Heywood Usueme (1 790)
Seat 8: bsnbarber (2 225)
Seat 9: sherisl (1 440)
sufjan85 posts the small blind of 20
Heywood Usueme posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #5

Holecards:
Dealt to Four Dogs [

]
bsnbarber folds
sherisl folds
Ho0n212 folds
bulldog67 folds
Four Dogs raises to 120
GameReddy folds
hoosierguy2 calls 120
sufjan85 folds
Heywood Usueme folds

Flop:
[

]
Four Dogs bets 200
hoosierguy2 calls 200

Turn:
[

] [

]
Four Dogs bets 350
hoosierguy2 calls 350

River:
[

] [

]
Four Dogs checks
hoosierguy2 bets 650, and is all in
Four Dogs folds
Uncalled bet of 650 returned to hoosierguy2
hoosierguy2 shows [

] (a pair of Queens)
hoosierguy2 wins the pot (1,400)
The blinds are now 25/50

SUMMARY:
Total pot 1,400 | Rake 0
Board:
[

]
Seat 1: Ho0n212 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: bulldog67 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: Four Dogs folded on the River
Seat 4: GameReddy didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: hoosierguy2 (button) collected (1 400)
Seat 6: sufjan85 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 7: Heywood Usueme (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 8: bsnbarber didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: sherisl didn't bet (folded)

 

[ChuckTs]

Amazing read? More like he's an action junkie who missed his gutshot and made a desperate attempt to steal the pot on the river. I can't see how he had such a strong read on you in the ~5 minutes that have passed in the tourney

650 into a 2050 pot gives you more than 3:1 on the river. I think you have to call that. He could very easily have a smaller ace or a busted flush (or gutshot ) draw.

 

[Irexes]

Hard not to be swayed by knowing the results here but I'll give it a go.

The pot is 2000 and it's 650 to call which is pretty much your whole stack.

If you fold you only have ~700 left.

If you win you are in good shape.

It's a turbo so many normal considerations go out the window and taking a risk becomes more necessary.

It's certainly not obvious it's a bluff and really he should have seen you as pot committed making it an even dumber move on his part.

You'll not go far wrong if you are looking for reasons to make laydowns (it's a healthy trait) but I think here you have to call even though given the scary board you could easily be behind.

No way you can pick this as a bluff though.

 

[dj11]

Your check on the river gave him the crack he needed to pull this bluff off. If you bet he folds.

 

[Four Dogs]

Hmm. I didnt feel committed. 700 TC's is still enough for a comeback. I was sure I was being slow played and felt that I'd have a better chance pushing later on with any 2 cards than I had at the moment, which is exactly what I did 4 hands later with AT (lost to A3). Honestly, if I had seen any donkish or agressive tendancies before this hand I would have called. Strangely, this was the only hand he played while I was involved. Not sure what could have prompted it. Kinda schizophrenic.

 

[ChuckTs]

what could he have been slowplaying?

The only hand I see that fits this line is KQ; AA/KK/QQ reraises PF, as does AK/AQ. JT might do this, but he'd have probably raised the flop since he'd know that you're so likely to pay him off on that board. Even with KQ, it's a very vulnerable hand on that flop, and he'd probably just come out raising you.

 

[Four Dogs]

Don't you think that since I had already raised PF, alot of those hands just call, especially strong ace hands that are vulnerable to pairs? Even the hands that should reraise like AA-QQ often don't at these limits. I'd hate to turn into one of these turbozo's who's first instinct with a strong hand is to shove, but in this case, that's the only bet he would have understood.

 

[joeeagles]

IMO, this was not an obvious bluff. It is debatable if you should have called this or not, but its far from obvious. Your hand could have been 2nd best, no doubt about it.

Depending on level that you're playing, I don't think AK or AQ will necessarily reraise PF. I think Chuck is mostly relying on how he would play those hands rather than how the majority of players do. In other words, I agree with you that alot of strong aces will smooth call your PF raise (lol, Chuck wouldn't but that's different, you're not up against him here). So I perfectly see your reasoning on laying this down, wondering if he slowplayed a big hand.

The other observations made about this being a turbo and you being pot committed, and the 3 to 1 odds to call, all stand correctly, in my modest opinion. Those probably are very good reasons to call this.

 

[Four Dogs]

Thanks for the comments.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

It's not an 'obvious' bluff, and quite what led the person who said that to say it was... umm, well I don't know.

However, getting 2:1 you have to call the river. While many donks will slowplay AA-QQ/AK/AQ/KQ here, it's not generally accepted as the 'norm', and without reads we have to assume that villain is an average player and that therefore it's possible, but unlikely that he plays the above range of hands this way.

You're right in that if we think this is right on the borderline and he's bluffing a third of the time it would be best to fold and conserve chips, but from the strange play I'd say he's either bluffing with a missed draw (or nothing) or you're chopping with Ax (infrequent but plausible - with Ax he would see that he's chopping with better Aces and might try to make a play and get you to fold a hand that would have split ther pot) marginally over half the time.

This is a good lesson in, "The less sense a player's play makes, the more likely it is that they're bluffing, or at least don't have what on the face of it they're trying to represent", but it's still not "obvious" - precious little in poker is "obvious".

 

[alan1983]

It wasnt obvious he had nothing. Of course not. But it was obvious that any made hand could make this bet without the queen after putting so much in the pot.

And the betting before suggest something along the line of KJ or Ax more than 2 pairs on the flop.


So while its quasi-impossible to put him on complete bluff, i think rivers a call.

 

[Four Dogs]

It's not an 'obvious' bluff, and quite what led the person who said that to say it was... umm, well I don't know.

However, getting 2:1 you have to call the river. While many donks will slowplay AA-QQ/AK/AQ/KQ here, it's not generally accepted as the 'norm', and without reads we have to assume that villain is an average player and that therefore it's possible, but unlikely that he plays the above range of hands this way.

You're right in that if we think this is right on the borderline and he's bluffing a third of the time it would be best to fold and conserve chips, but from the strange play I'd say he's either bluffing with a missed draw (or nothing) or you're chopping with Ax (infrequent but plausible - with Ax he would see that he's chopping with better Aces and might try to make a play and get you to fold a hand that would have split ther pot) marginally over half the time.

This is a good lesson in, "The less sense a player's play makes, the more likely it is that they're bluffing, or at least don't have what on the face of it they're trying to represent", but it's still not "obvious" - precious little in poker is "obvious".

Nice reply Chris. The problem is, that his flat calls made perfect sense to me. I couldn't see this as any kind of a bluff. He was either sandbaging a monster or unsure of his hand. He hadn't exhibited any LAG tendencies and my PF bet along with a CB on a very scary board should have elliminated any Ax hands. The second bet and the second flat call sealed it.

I can't help thinking that this might not have been the donk bluff it seems to be. I ran into him again tonight and for 40 hands or so he was as quiet as a mouse. So what was it about me that made him think he could get away with this? Is it possible that this was an amazingly good bluff? Put yourself in his shoes. It's very likely that I connected with the flop, but not very likely that I had anything better than top pair (just the odds). However, this is a flop that could easily produce better hands than top pair. If he sees me as somone who can lay down a med hand this may in fact have a positive EV.
You'd have to have balls of steal to pull it off though. Or, in a $6.50 SnG, maybe not.

 

[titans4ever]

I just want to make sure that this was a one table turbo.

I look at the format that you were playing must come into consideration. You have 3 minute blinds. You have just committed almost half your stack to this pot.

What is chances of making money in these if you loose 1/2 your stack?
What is your chances of making it into the money if you double up in the first 10 minutes?

I know that I have a far greater chance of taking first if I double up. First is all that you really shoot for in these one table turbos. I fold here and leave myself around 700 I will have to work real hard just to survive to the final 3 to make it to the money. Meta gaming and looking at the payout I call here almost every time.

The hand in particular I don't see AA, KK or AK as likely of a holding since 90% of people will reraise with them preflop. I see KQ or AQ as calling hands and they could have you crushed. J10 is another possiblity but you hold one of the Js so it is slightly less likely and fewer people will call a raise with this hand.

I realistically only see two hands that have you beat so I think I would be calling that last bet.

 

[Four Dogs]

I just want to make sure that this was a one table turbo.

I look at the format that you were playing must come into consideration. You have 3 minute blinds. You have just committed almost half your stack to this pot.

What is chances of making money in these if you loose 1/2 your stack?
What is your chances of making it into the money if you double up in the first 10 minutes?

I know that I have a far greater chance of taking first if I double up. First is all that you really shoot for in these one table turbos. I fold here and leave myself around 700 I will have to work real hard just to survive to the final 3 to make it to the money. Meta gaming and looking at the payout I call here almost every time.

The hand in particular I don't see AA, KK or AK as likely of a holding since 90% of people will reraise with them preflop. I see KQ or AQ as calling hands and they could have you crushed. J10 is another possiblity but you hold one of the Js so it is slightly less likely and fewer people will call a raise with this hand.

I realistically only see two hands that have you beat so I think I would be calling that last bet.

Yes, this was a single tabe turbo. I've had some success with these in the past and am up nearly $100 since the begining of the year in about 70 sessions.

Your comment about playing only to win is interesting Titan. I just try to be patient and find that if I can hang in there I'll often get the chance to double up late in the game. You're right though, alot of people play with this all-or-nothing mentality. While there is definately something to be said for scoring big early, I think it's over emphasized.

 

[joeeagles]

I agree FD, it is overemphasized, and you're right that with 700 left you can still come back and win the tourney. I've been lucky enough to do that with less in the past. Granted, its not easy, but its far from impossible. This is the reason why I didn't disagree with you in my first post when you said in 1 of your replys that 700 is still enough for a comeback.

It remains debatable if to call or not here, it sure didn't help being only 5 hands in this thing. I wouldn't read too much into what induced him to try the bluff here, it was a scary board and he simply thought he had a chance to get away with it, I don't believe it was anything you did, and since he missed the gutshot, a bluff is the only way he could take this pot. That's not to say he did the right thing, it was probably only a desperate move, probably he felt that if he lost this hand he was done anyway. I'm convinced he's doing this with anyone, not because it was you or something you did.

If we really want to find something, maybe it was the river check, perhaps a block bet there would have stopped it, but with your remaining stack then you would have had to call any raise even if you didn't feel comfortable doing it. Its certainly true that it takes balls of steel (or stupidity) to pull this off.

I would just forget it if I were you.