Can I fold here? TPTK with nut flush draw on turn.

K

Krenium

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The Villain was playing rather tight-aggressive from what I could see. Only a STT, so I didn't have that much time to observe his play.

full tilt poker Game #4333065849: $10 + $1 Sit & Go (32867872), Table 1 - 30/60 - No Limit Hold'em - 4:16:19 ET - 2007/11/29
Seat 2: mewinneryay (2,750)
Seat 3: Hapinesisthervr (3,345)
Seat 4: maschakm (3,440)
Seat 5: tyson239 (455)
Seat 8: BCdolly (1,655)
Seat 9: Krenium (1,855)
tyson239 posts the small blind of 30
BCdolly posts the big blind of 60
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Krenium [Qd Ad]
Krenium raises to 180
mewinneryay folds
Hapinesisthervr calls 180
maschakm folds
tyson239 folds
BCdolly calls 120
*** FLOP *** [7h 8d Qh]
BCdolly checks
Krenium bets 240
Hapinesisthervr folds
BCdolly raises to 480
Krenium calls 240(???)
*** TURN *** [7h 8d Qh] [Jd]
BCdolly bets 995, and is all in
Krenium calls 995(???)

The check-raise on the flop looked very suspicious, and I read it as either he had a monster or absolutely nothing. The fourth diamond on the turn gave me the nut flush draw, and I was pretty sure it probably didn't help him unless he check-raised with 9 10 or QJ. If I folded here, I would still have a decent amount of chips to play with, but I figured that the chance that he was bluffing/had a weaker kicker, and the fact that I had outs was enough to justify the call.

Oh well, just wanted to hear everyone's thoughts on this hand.
 
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K

Krenium

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A card appears that beats completes both the flush draw and some common straight draws as well, and he's behaving as if he hit one.

You have two choices here:

Instafold

or

Pretend to ponder, then fold.

If you happened to right this once, consider yourself lucky and don't do it again.

Edit to add: if he has either, you have no redraws either.

Sorry, I might be reading your post wrong. But currently there are 2 hearts and 2 diamonds on the board, impossible to make a flush. While the jack could have completed a straight, he'd have to be holding 9 10 to complete it.
 
DaveE

DaveE

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There's a very good chance you have him beat right now. If you dont you're drawing to the nuts. I might be a little too aggressive in these situations but I'm calling this every time.
I'd also factor in the fact that it's still early so you dont have much time invested. If you're properly bankrolled, take your chances..if it doesn't work, on to another game.
 
Blazing_Saddler

Blazing_Saddler

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I am not folding that. Look at the odds you are getting. You could well be ahead. Although looking at that, he has 10 9 for the straight. Or maybe two pairs 78, QJ

Still calling that bet. STT's are fast. and you have to make your move sooner or later, sure a better spot would be better, but with that much money in the pot, a draw to the nuts, and a good chance you are already ahead. Get your chips in
 
F

fleft

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I've never played in a 10$ tournament but I think he has you beat. Either Q8 or 78 for two pair. I'm not sure of the pot size, but I think you're getting close to proper odds on the river to call for your flush draw. Tough call.
 
K

Kajagugu

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Against a random hand you are 87% to 13% winner on the turn.

Against JJ+,88-77,AhQh you are a 3-to-1 dog.

Against JJ+,88-77,AhQh,T9s,T9o you are almost a 4-to-1 dog.

You have to try to figure out what he has and count your outs. If he is ahead you have 9 outs for the flush. That's pretty much it. Would he play Aces this way? Kings? To me this screams that he has a made hand and is trying to avoid a flush draw. My guess would be that he has a made set.

It's a tough call, but I probably call as well. What did you do?
 
K

Krenium

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I ended up calling. He turned over a 88, and the river wasn't a diamond so I lost.
 
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