HUNL Turbo - TPNK v tilting nit

[switch0723]

villain has raised ~90% of buttons (never limps), and has been very nitty postflop, only betting draws/middle or top pair, checking if completely missed and no draw adn checking overcards. He hasn't made any bluffs yet and has just generally played very straight forward. Has given up on hands to any resistance with weak hands such as middle pair and played for showdown value.

about 10 hands before this hand, villain made comments in the chat box about how bad he runs after i hit an oesd and made a really small value bet and got called by bottom pair. He then made tilty comments and made 3 or 4 tilty calls such as calling 2 barrels on a 4 to flush board with middle pair. This is the first hand he has 3 barreled, and he would know that the 2d is obviously a complete blank so can't rep it. The problem is that we are getting better than 3:1 on a call, and will be left with (quick in heads maths) ~1200 if we call and are wrong so its not a disaster.

Action?

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HAND #1
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poker stars, $6.25 Buy-in (15/30 blinds) NL Hold'em Tourney, 2 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

SB: 1,220 (40.7 bb)
Hero (BB): 1,780 (59.3 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with 6

K

SB raises to 90, Hero calls 60

Flop: (180) K

T

J

(2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets 90, Hero calls 90

Turn: (360) T

(2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets 180, Hero calls 180

River: (720) 2

(2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets 340, Hero ????


call or fold, you decide!

 

[c9h13no3]

KQ & AK are the only Kx hands where their kicker plays, so you probably split this a lot. I'd call as he's repping a fairly polarized range here (I guess?). Hard to say for HU, since maybe going for 3-streets of value with a hand like K9 is normal? Anyways, draws missed, I'm calling.

Only thing that is odd, is all his bets are exactly half pot. But even then, if he were going for value I think he'd probably put a bit more thought into his bet size.

 

[switch0723]

i should add that this is never ever a jack, villain checks a jack 100% here so we can remove that from any ranges

 

[KillerBoo]

i should add that this is never ever a jack, villain checks a jack 100% here so we can remove that from any ranges

I can think of at least one good reason for a bet with the jack....

He is really really bad. But crappy, fishy players wins pots they shouldnt.
Seriously, how many games have you seen/played online with small buy in´s like up to $10-15 where people actually wont bet a painted hit? And especially if he is on tilt.
So, I´d say a J is definately within his range.
Besides, what can you possibly beat on that board? If you wanna play it, raise it. Otherwise it´s a dead giveaway fold

 

[switch0723]

I can think of at least one good reason for a bet with the jack....

He is really really bad. But crappy, fishy players wins pots they shouldnt.
Seriously, how many games have you seen/played online with small buy in´s like up to $10-15 where people actually wont bet a painted hit? And especially if he is on tilt.
So, I´d say a J is definately within his range.
Besides, what can you possibly beat on that board? If you wanna play it, raise it. Otherwise it´s a dead giveaway fold

1. villain is a winning huturbo reg
2. This guy is a good player so knows to check behind a jack since a bet will only be called by a worse hand, tilt doesnt have much impact on how players value bet (generalisation aside), since if he bets a jack, he is effectively bluffing, so this guy 100% checks a jack behind on river.

What i beat is the 3:1 odds on a bluff, i obv don't beat any hand villain is value betting, but i beat a stone cold bluff, spades and queens. Why would i possibly raise? So that the only hand that i beat (a bluff) can fold?

 

[OzExorcist]

i should add that this is never ever a jack, villain checks a jack 100% here so we can remove that from any ranges

If this is never a jack then can we infer it's never a ten either?

I call this, expecting to split a chunk of the time, pick off a bluff a reasonable amount of time, and lose the pot to something that had us beat all along the rest of the time.

The fact that dropping back to 1200 probably isn't a complete disaster against someone who plays nitty postflop even in raised pots also weighs into my decision.

 

[switch0723]

If this is never a jack then can we infer it's never a ten either?

I call this, expecting to split a chunk of the time, pick off a bluff a reasonable amount of time, and lose the pot to something that had us beat all along the rest of the time.

The fact that dropping back to 1200 probably isn't a complete disaster against someone who plays nitty postflop even in raised pots also weighs into my decision.

villain betting a jack and villain betting a ten though are completely different, a jack has very little value here, where as a ten can get value from kings and a,j etc

for the reasons you mentions and the fact that i was getting 3:1 i called and villain flipped over q rag for a missed draw, although i think if he bets 2/3 pot or something i probably fold

 

[KillerBoo]

What i beat is the 3:1 odds on a bluff, i obv don't beat any hand villain is value betting, but i beat a stone cold bluff, spades and queens. Why would i possibly raise? So that the only hand that i beat (a bluff) can fold?

Thats my whole point, You dont beat a helluvalot of hands.. so why just call?

Why you would raise? Same thing here, you can make him fold a hand that beats you.

 

[c9h13no3]

Thats my whole point, You dont beat a helluvalot of hands.. so why just call?

Why you would raise? Same thing here, you can make him fold a hand that beats you.

A) Raising has to work so much more often than just calling.

B) Villain is very rarely folding anything on the river as the 2 changes nothing. And the only hands that beat us are AK & KQ, and I doubt those are folding either.

Turning a hand like top pair into a bluff usually isn't a great idea there Boo. We've got good showdown value, and villain is representing a very polarized range (big hands that aren't folding, and bluffs). Raising here is like, omfg, so bad. By raising, we donate to hands like TX, AQ, Q9, KJ, ect. And the hands that we fold, we are either splitting with or we beat already and they aren't calling a raise with the hands we already beat.

Wow, like, how can you even fathom raising this river.

 

[viking999]

FWIW now, I'd probably fold it. His hand is very polarized, and I don't expect him showing up with spades very often. There's a slight possibility of the ace high spades draw betting the flop with just the gutterball and picking up the draw on the turn. He could also have the jack spades draw, but that runs into the same "checking behind for showdown value" problem as the bare jack. So, he mostly has to have a queen to be bluffing. Plus, it's the first time he's bet three streets, so tilting or not, I don't think the odds favor you.

 

[OzExorcist]

villain betting a jack and villain betting a ten though are completely different, a jack has very little value here, where as a ten can get value from kings and a,j etc

*facepalm*

D'oh - of course, makes sense. For some reason I had it in my head you were talking about the flop when you said this was never a jack

Agree on the raising point, very best case is we fold a couple of hands that we're splitting with. Has to be call or fold.