How would you play this?

[shinedown.45]

pokerstars Game #11488391234: Tournament #57897896, $2.50+$0.25 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2007/08/14 - 17:31:10 (ET)
Table '57897896 90' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: jasportsman (5070 in chips)
Seat 2: Hermann76 (3660 in chips)
Seat 3: jimdandy1013 (925 in chips)
Seat 4: capicaz (4675 in chips)
Seat 5: sweetiejj29 (5305 in chips)
Seat 6: rredd5 (505 in chips)
Seat 7: Minoson (7355 in chips)
Seat 8: chris_cash79 (960 in chips)
Seat 9: Orion469 (1470 in chips)
jasportsman: posts small blind 25
Hermann76: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Orion469 [6c 6d]
jimdandy1013: folds
capicaz: folds
sweetiejj29: folds
rredd5: raises 250 to 300
Minoson: calls 300
chris_cash79: calls 300
Orion469:?

Would like some feedback on this

on second thought, no feedback needed.
Would you play for set value?

 

[ChuckTs]

Toss it and wait for a better situation.

We don't have enough to push anyone out here with a squeeze, especially not considering it's a $2.50 buyin and people are just plain more likely to call.

Calling is terrible because we're playing the hand solely for set value, and we're not getting the implied odds needed to play it.

 

[blankoblanco]

Interesting to note original preflop raiser raised 60% of his stack instead of shoving. Then chris_cash called of 1/3 without shoving. That being said, it's $2.50 so I think it could mean just about anything. What's the minimum pair you shove here without a read, Chuck? I'm thinking ~99 or 1010

 

[ChuckTs]

Sounds about right. It's hard to pin hand ranges on players at this level, but it looks like we'll be called by all 3 of them considering stack sizes :/

 

[shinedown.45]

Thanks guys, I just assk because I had folded and a 6 came on the flop.

 

[bw07507]

you would enjoy the new "Chasing Victory" cd.

Dont be results oriented, just b/c a 6 came on the flop does not mean that it would have been the right move to call there.

 

[shinedown.45]

Dont be results oriented, just b/c a 6 came on the flop does not mean that it would have been the right move to call there.

I just have a problem knowing when to call for set value and put forth the question which Chuck and comb answered for me.

 

[DaveE]

I remember reading somewhere that if you can see the flop (with a pp) for less than 15% of your stack it's +EV. Can't speak for the validity of that statement but it's always in the back of my mind as a general guideline.

 

[-PotCommited88-]

its a definite toss in. with that many people you are looking at re raising all in or tossing, which is the much better option. with that many people, unless a 6 comes on the flop you are probably beaten. and since hitting a set is only a 8 or so % chance of hitting on the flop. you must call 300 to get 1200 so you are 1:4 odds with only two outs basically going in. since your set possibility is only 1:12.5 going in, the odds are waay against you to call. tough break on the set hitting tough, better luck next time

 

[-PotCommited88-]

wow i calculated with too many outs... sorry its even worse its roughly 1:25/26 chance of hitting your set

 

[Mrlova]

I like to limp with small pairs but it can some times it can be dangerous. It looks early so I wouldn't reraise but i would at least call and try to trip up.

Good luck on the felt!

 

[blankoblanco]

I like to limp with small pairs but it can some times it can be dangerous. It looks early so I wouldn't reraise but i would at least call and try to trip up.

he's not getting the right odds to call and look for a set at all. look at stack sizes. it would cost shine over 20% of his stack. that and only one of the players even has enough to double shine up, the others are super short. that means the implied odds (the reason you play small pairs in the first place) are awful. this would be a terrible spot to call.. even shoving is better (but not nearly as good as folding)

 

[shinedown.45]

I remember reading somewhere that if you can see the flop (with a pp) for less than 15% of your stack it's +EV. Can't speak for the validity of that statement but it's always in the back of my mind as a general guideline.

^^^this^^^ is the exact thing I was looking for in helping me decide if I should call, makes it alot easier and quicker to decide than it would if I were to calculate the exact odds.
Thanks Kcanuck

 

[blankoblanco]

The better and more widely followed rule is actually 10% or less (called the 5/10 rule.. 5 for suited connectors, 10 for pocket pairs), because you're obviously not going to stack a villain every time you hit your set. And also note it's 10% of the effective stacks. So even if calling a raise would only cost 10% of your stack, if villain has a stack half the size of yours, it would be 20% of the effective stacks and not worth a call, because you can't double up.. you can only win what he has.

 

[dj11]

Thanks guys, I just assk because I had folded and a 6 came on the flop.

If you can weed your way through some laborious reading, the way most sites deal the cards suggest that the 6 might not have shown had you stayed in.
Since I did weed through that reading, I no longer fret about what might have been, though I do watch with interest what might, might have been.

I read the version from FullTilt, it deals with a quantum level radioactive decay timing mechanism, along with a deck bigger than Boston.

 

[BigVito]

he's not getting the right odds to call and look for a set at all. look at stack sizes. it would cost shine over 20% of his stack. that and only one of the players even has enough to double shine up, the others are super short. that means the implied odds (the reason you play small pairs in the first place) are awful. this would be a terrible spot to call.. even shoving is better (but not nearly as good as folding)

I agree. The short stacks are only offering a total of 2500+ for your 300. Not good enough to set mine here. You don't have enough chips to get the implied odds from the Big Stack. Pretty easy fold.

Now if you had 3800 or so in chips....hmmm.