How to play overpairs in dicy spots

[Aoersie]

I recently had a very weird spot I was not sure how to handle and would appreciate some advice on. This is in a big 50 $ knock-out tourney.

Hero (Button) (t8,231)
SB (t8,847)
BB (t13,526)
UTG (t9,374)
MP1 (t9,808)
MP2 (t9,854)
CO (t9,816)

Hero's M: 59.22

Preflop: Hero is Button with Jh, Jd
3 folds, CO calls t60, Hero raises to t172, SB calls t142, 1 fold, CO calls t112

Flop: (t625) 4h, 4c, 7d (3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets t240, SB calls t240, 1 fold

Turn: (t1,105) 9s (2 players)
SB bets t2,040, Hero calls t2,040

River: (t5,185) 10c (2 players)
SB bets t6,388 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: t5,185

Results:
SB didn't show

I was honestly very surprised by the turn lead overbet of nearly 2x pot after I bet the flop. I felt it's still necessary to call because Jacks is just too strong in my range here. On the river it was very close but I felt like his line is very value heavy? I am still not sure how to correctly assess the situation and appreciate any input...

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
If you had raised first in, then your sizing of slightly under 3BB would be totally fine. But with a limper already in the pot you need to go larger, especially when you are more than 100BB deep. You are giving the limper and everyone else to good implied odds to see a flop and try to suck out on you.

Flop
C-bet and sizing is fine. Only one player continue, which you should be happy about. This is probably a situation, where you can go bet, bet, bet on a clean runout, since a SB calling range should really not contain a lot of 4X.

Turn
As you say, this donk bet for 2X the size of the pot is a pretty weird line by him. I guess, he could have 99, that just turned top boat. But even then why not go for a check-raise rather than this particular line? I guess, he could also have a hand like 86s, that just became open ended. But its an awfull lot to risk on a draw on a paired board. And again why not check-raise? So this basically makes no sense with any hand. I guess 2.040 is pretty much, what you would have bet on turn and river, had he checked again. So it seems reasonable to call and then basically hope, he check the river.

River
He is still not representing much, but his most likely hand is 99, and I dont see this being a bluff often enough to justify stacking off.

 

[Aoersie]

Thanks for your reply!
I agree, my preflop sizing was a bit too small, I should probably go for something like 3.5 bbs? I don't play deep stacked tournaments too often tbh.

Would you treat QQ to AA differently on the river? I was thinking about J10s being a possible bluff (on the turn into weird value bet on the river?) as well which I block with JJ pretty hard. That might make QQ to AA better hands to call, but it is still really awkward.
But I need to have some calls in this spot. 10 10 and 99 would obviously be two clear calls, what about 77? Also a bit weird but probably have to call?
Would you call with A4s? Seems also a bit dicy...
Probably 10 9s would be an okay call since I block 99?

Preflop
If you had raised first in, then your sizing of slightly under 3BB would be totally fine. But with a limper already in the pot you need to go larger, especially when you are more than 100BB deep. You are giving the limper and everyone else to good implied odds to see a flop and try to suck out on you.

Flop
C-bet and sizing is fine. Only one player continue, which you should be happy about. This is probably a situation, where you can go bet, bet, bet on a clean runout, since a SB calling range should really not contain a lot of 4X.

Turn
As you say, this donk bet for 2X the size of the pot is a pretty weird line by him. I guess, he could have 99, that just turned top boat. But even then why not go for a check-raise rather than this particular line? I guess, he could also have a hand like 86s, that just became open ended. But its an awfull lot to risk on a draw on a paired board. And again why not check-raise? So this basically makes no sense with any hand. I guess 2.040 is pretty much, what you would have bet on turn and river, had he checked again. So it seems reasonable to call and then basically hope, he check the river.

River
He is still not representing much, but his most likely hand is 99, and I dont see this being a bluff often enough to justify stacking off.

 

[jonaselloco]

Hello
Well, Fundiver199 has already helped you on the math, strategy and possibilities side. He loves to analyze that side and it's very good.
I will try to help you on the side of how I see the villain.
You're the one who raised JJ good bet and Villain limped.
As I see the flop 4 4 7 it is very likely that I will complete the trio/set that is 7 7 7, or it also happens that you get paid with hands like A4s that can be in the possibilities. But I play for the 77 in hand.
After every bet you made he limped, except at showdown he moved all in.
Actually if he bluffed he is really a very good player, I don't believe the bluff option.
As for the trio / set I think that's the best option. There was no flush draw, nor was there a straight draw except on the river, which could have been achieved with an 8 6 in hand or a J 8 but in truth I also ruled this out, because if I had these combinations when I saw the flop I would have folded before your bet .
The trio / set option is the best. He may even have had a 9 9 or 10 10 in hand and when low cards came out on the table, and as you kept raising bets he only limped, in truth I would have done the same until I saw if I could achieve the trio / set.
I think you just weren't lucky enough to make your trip/set with JJ and make your hand very strong. He did have that luck.
I think you did very well folding. If I knew the player at the table and I know he is a strong player, I would have folded too. Although when doing this there is always the great doubt, but in short, they are situations that are better to prevent than to cure.
In general when in MTTs they go all in on those plays, most of the time they are winning the hand.
Greetings friend, and I humbly hope I could have helped you.

 

[D0nk3y Hunt3r]

Preflop
If you had raised first in, then your sizing of slightly under 3BB would be totally fine. But with a limper already in the pot you need to go larger

Agree.

Turn
As you say, this donk bet for 2X the size of the pot is a pretty weird line by him. I guess, he could have 99

Pocket 7s seems totally in range.

 

[Aoersie]

Hello
Well, Fundiver199 has already helped you on the math, strategy and possibilities side. He loves to analyze that side and it's very good.
I will try to help you on the side of how I see the villain.
You're the one who raised JJ good bet and Villain limped.
As I see the flop 4 4 7 it is very likely that I will complete the trio/set that is 7 7 7, or it also happens that you get paid with hands like A4s that can be in the possibilities. But I play for the 77 in hand.
After every bet you made he limped, except at showdown he moved all in.
Actually if he bluffed he is really a very good player, I don't believe the bluff option.
As for the trio / set I think that's the best option. There was no flush draw, nor was there a straight draw except on the river, which could have been achieved with an 8 6 in hand or a J 8 but in truth I also ruled this out, because if I had these combinations when I saw the flop I would have folded before your bet .
The trio / set option is the best. He may even have had a 9 9 or 10 10 in hand and when low cards came out on the table, and as you kept raising bets he only limped, in truth I would have done the same until I saw if I could achieve the trio / set.
I think you just weren't lucky enough to make your trip/set with JJ and make your hand very strong. He did have that luck.
I think you did very well folding. If I knew the player at the table and I know he is a strong player, I would have folded too. Although when doing this there is always the great doubt, but in short, they are situations that are better to prevent than to cure.
In general when in MTTs they go all in on those plays, most of the time they are winning the hand.
Greetings friend, and I humbly hope I could have helped you.

Thank you! Just to make sure, Villain led nearly 2x pot on the turn which is the really interesting/weird spot for me.

 

[jonaselloco]

Thank you! Just to make sure, Villain led nearly 2x pot on the turn which is the really interesting/weird spot for me.

If so brother.
Regarding what you answered to Fundiver199, just limit something.
Actually, from playing and watching tables live and online, I realize more and more that, although it is very good and productive to think about the villain's range, fairness and other strategies, the reality is that if the villain at the moment of playing liked his cards to call and seeing a flop will do, even if you have AA.
I've seen so many plays of these in tournaments, that if you really keep a statistic of the hands that in the strategy manuals could not pay you and yet they pay you, you would be in for a big surprise.
In your case Villain could have A4 - 77 - 99 - 1010 - or QQ + and hid them, A7 and semi-bluffed you. There are many possibilities.
Look what happened to me yesterday in the $100 cardschat. There was a player at the table that I know and he plays well, he is not aggressive but he is firm. And there was another one who was a kite, he beat a man a hand with 89 vs AA and he laughed at him. From now on these players are always waiting for the whole table.
JJ comes to me in UTG and I raiseBB, the kite from MP 3bets, the firm button player calls, and I also call.
I think the flop was 3 3 8, here I admit that because of the stupid 3bet of the kite I didn't think about the consequences. Because the kite raises 1/3 Pot, the BN player pays and I thought that there was a possibility that the BN had a good hand, it occurred to me to go all in, and that was my big mistake, thinking of the kite player and don't think about the firm player.
When I go all in, the kite folds and the BN calls. the BN had QQ and eliminated me.
In other words, with this I want to tell you that in order to learn there are always many situations on a day-to-day basis, the important thing is to register your hands in your mind so that if the opportunity arises again to play that hand, you will not repeat the same mistake.
greetings friend

 

[eetenor]

I recently had a very weird spot I was not sure how to handle and would appreciate some advice on. This is in a big 50 $ knock-out tourney.

Hero (Button) (t8,231)
SB (t8,847)
BB (t13,526)
UTG (t9,374)
MP1 (t9,808)
MP2 (t9,854)
CO (t9,816)

Hero's M: 59.22

Preflop: Hero is Button with Jh, Jd
3 folds, CO calls t60, Hero raises to t172, SB calls t142, 1 fold, CO calls t112

Flop: (t625) 4h, 4c, 7d (3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets t240, SB calls t240, 1 fold

Turn: (t1,105) 9s (2 players)
SB bets t2,040, Hero calls t2,040

River: (t5,185) 10c (2 players)
SB bets t6,388 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: t5,185

Results:
SB didn't show

I was honestly very surprised by the turn lead overbet of nearly 2x pot after I bet the flop. I felt it's still necessary to call because Jacks is just too strong in my range here. On the river it was very close but I felt like his line is very value heavy? I am still not sure how to correctly assess the situation and appreciate any input...

This is a very interesting spot- these spots rely heavily on any data from previous hands that we have about the Villain-the line is so unusual that we cannot make anything more than a guess without that data-
The data we would like to have is other over bet spots or none---if V normally bet small sizings this would lean nuts----AGG factor on V as this is a very agg line to take-----if V was mostly passive this would be more nuts for instance- Any out of line spots something that struck you as weird involving bets or not betting value spots on river---

Without the above data this line does not make much sense with the nuts here based on sizing unless the player is very skilled-where they?
Standard players do not want you to fold on the turn when they hold 44 77 99 so they seldom 2x pot lead- they will lead but not 2x most often
Stack depth suggest they would be raising flop with the nuts as they can have nuts and bluffs more evenly balanced there and to make your river call with over pairs less difficult to win your bounty-if they were expecting you to check back turn why lead 2x pot with the nuts or near nuts on a 9R?

 

[Aoersie]

This is a very interesting spot- these spots rely heavily on any data from previous hands that we have about the Villain-the line is so unusual that we cannot make anything more than a guess without that data-
The data we would like to have is other over bet spots or none---if V normally bet small sizings this would lean nuts----AGG factor on V as this is a very agg line to take-----if V was mostly passive this would be more nuts for instance- Any out of line spots something that struck you as weird involving bets or not betting value spots on river---

Without the above data this line does not make much sense with the nuts here based on sizing unless the player is very skilled-where they?
Standard players do not want you to fold on the turn when they hold 44 77 99 so they seldom 2x pot lead- they will lead but not 2x most often
Stack depth suggest they would be raising flop with the nuts as they can have nuts and bluffs more evenly balanced there and to make your river call with over pairs less difficult to win your bounty-if they were expecting you to check back turn why lead 2x pot with the nuts or near nuts on a 9R?

Unfortunately, I don't really have much data to go on since this was in the early stage of the tournament and I got kicked out pretty soon after. During that time, I haven't seen them play like that so I can assume it makes it more value heavy.

Given that I don't have any further data, what would your suggestions for my river call range be? 77, 99, 10 10, A4s?

 

[fundiver199]

Would you treat QQ to AA differently on the river? I was thinking about J10s being a possible bluff (on the turn into weird value bet on the river?) as well which I block with JJ pretty hard. That might make QQ to AA better hands to call, but it is still really awkward.
But I need to have some calls in this spot. 10 10 and 99 would obviously be two clear calls, what about 77? Also a bit weird but probably have to call?
Would you call with A4s? Seems also a bit dicy...
Probably 10 9s would be an okay call since I block 99?

As for draws the most likely one is still 86, because it flopped a gutshot and improved to an OESD on the turn. JT flopped absolutely nothing and should clearly fold the flop being out of position with another player left to act behind. 86 actually got there on the river, which is a further reason to fold. One of the things, we should always look for when considering a hero call on the river, is busted draws. Here there really are none, which makes me think, his range is pretty much full houses, and maybe the rivered straight. So I likely fold any overpair here and even trips. 77 is the one hand, where if he has it, ok then good for him, here is all my chips. Thats pretty much like running KK into AA preflop.

 

[spunka]

Hi
V likes the hand V is holding, he tells you that with the huge raise on the turn, that is where you need to make up your mind of how to procede in the hand, I do not like the call when V raise that big, I think your action should be either a fold or a reraise to a bet like that.

 

[eetenor]

With no data on V we would call all those hands you mentioned-
as the sizing on this board includes bluffs--- We also have to call AA-QQ
The turn and river bet is value sizing but also has rep the 4 to get folds as well-

 

[makisaa]

The small blind overbets at the turn and you have JJ which is a strong pair, but I think he had something stronger like the three of a kind or a straight or even a full house. My opinion is that I would not follow this overbetting because it was not just a rise but a great part of your stack.

 

[Recreationalplayer]

if you have over pairs with additional equity to go with, play them aggressively.

QQ/JJ is a 3 bet pot is a perfect candidate for aggressive post flop play. Its very unlikely that your opponent has a higher overpair and you need protection against over cards.

 

[StealTheButton]

Villain could have had a hand like 78- made a pair on the flop. On the turn he over bet his open ended draw and then jammed the turn he actually hit.