how much do i call on draws?

benevg

benevg

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Jul 22, 2007
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this was always a question i had no idea about.
here is a HH of the CC freeroll on stars today.


pokerstars Game #14676619347: Tournament #70315686, Freeroll Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2008/01/19 - 17:26:55 (ET)
Table '70315686 60' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: Libbbe (1380 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 2: diogoonofre (1085 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 3: DECKSTR8 (1425 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 4: bothofus123 (1395 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 5: lilybo (2565 in chips)
Seat 6: benevg (1695 in chips)
Seat 7: xpatrick28 (1725 in chips)
Seat 8: Yumbolt (3150 in chips)
Seat 9: fabiobarata (1880 in chips)
fabiobarata: posts small blind 15
Libbbe: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to benevg A♦ J♦
diogoonofre: folds
DECKSTR8: folds
bothofus123: folds
lilybo: calls 30
benevg: raises 60 to 90 (rather weak, i figure - comments?)
xpatrick28: calls 90
Yumbolt: folds
fabiobarata: calls 75
Libbbe: folds
lilybo: calls 60
*** FLOP *** 10♦ K♣ 3♦
fabiobarata: checks
lilybo: checks
benevg: bets 180
xpatrick28: raises 1455 to 1635 and is all-in
fabiobarata: folds
lilybo: folds
benevg: ?????
 
B

Bentheman87

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You have 9 outs for the flush, 4 outs for the gutshot straight draw, and a possible 3 outs if you hit your ace, we'll count this as 2 outs. So 15 outs menas you're .85:1 to win, which means you are actually a favorite to win with two cards to come, so call.
 
allndave

allndave

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Dec 9, 2007
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but it's still just a draw and your tournment life, i folded simular hand yesterday had royal flush draw.hindsight i guess i should have called because things went downhill from there,
 
SubT33

SubT33

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You have 9 outs for the flush, 4 outs for the gutshot straight draw, and a possible 3 outs if you hit your ace, we'll count this as 2 outs. So 15 outs menas you're .85:1 to win, which means you are actually a favorite to win with two cards to come, so call.

I feel like he made his set with TT or 33 so I'll only give us 13 outs but that still is 1.08 to 1 and still makes this a very profitable call. If you take this bet every time you see it, you'll be up like the house at the end of the night.
 
OzExorcist

OzExorcist

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Plus it's a freeroll, so you could be up against absolutely anything
 
Gobbs

Gobbs

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First, this is a math problem. After that, it's just a matter of where you may stand in the tournament and do you need to take advantage of any edge or can you afford to sit back and wait for a bigger edge.

You have nine outs to the flush, plus an additional three outs for the inside straight draw (don't double count the Qd). An ace may or may not win the pot for you. So, we'll call that 1.5 outs. We'll also subtract .5 outs from the flush/straight draw, just in case he does have trips and a redraw on you. So, overall, that's conservatively 13 outs. That still makes you a slight favorite (about 52%) and you may be a bigger favorite than that.

Obviously, as a favorite, you are getting odds to call, but do you want to put your tournament life at stake here? That depends on your personal assessment of your skill and the likelihood that you will be able to take advantages of other edges you may get.
 
OzExorcist

OzExorcist

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So, overall, that's conservatively 13 outs. That still makes you a slight favorite (about 52%) and you may be a bigger favorite than that.

13 outs = 48.1% for the turn and river combined, FWIW.
 
B

Bentheman87

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On second thought, you should fold. It's so early in the tournament you aren't under any pressure yet, right now you should be more conservative and avoid putting your tournament life on a tossup. There's no way you're a big favorite here unless you are up against a stone bluff (very very unlikely, the opponent has at least one pair). I'd call here only if I had this opponent well covered or if it were later in the tournament where I'm under a lot of pressure from the blinds to make a move. Later in the tournament you don't have a lot of time before you're blinded out, and a coinflip for all your chips isn't bad at all since that might be the best situation you'll get for the rest of the tournament. Then again, odds are in your favor here for you to call...
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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It's a FR. Put your chips in and double up or find another FR.
 
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