How to act before a possible set???

[jonaselloco]

The situation is the following:
Hero 18 BB
Villain 28 BB (board leader)

Hero in UTG raise 2 BB
Villain in UTG 1 call
other in MP call
table rest fold

hero
villain

Flop

Hero raise 2BB
villain call
MP other fold

turn

Hero raise 4BB
villain call

River

hero check
Villain raise 4BB
hero call

Conclusion: el showdown es

Villain with wins Jackpot
Hero loses 12 BB

Already when the villain paid the turn he already felt something strange, because he had seen him do a very similar situation in another hand, not with a set but with a double pair on the turn.
So when raising with my hand it could be logical that he had either again a two pair or else in set.
On the river, since I didn't have a strong hand, I actually checked and honestly, if the villain went all in, he didn't pay him, what's more, I was about to not pay him, but well, the high pair was not negligible.
The other situation could have been that he has 66 or 22 in hand and is either waiting for the set or waiting for the straight, in that situation on the turn he could have folded.
And well, the end was that with those 4 blinds that I had left I ended up in 22nd place so at least I got some payment hahahaha

Can you tell me how you play this hand that I propose to you??? and tell me about your experiences in these situations, or how you would act if you were the villain

Cheers...Carlos

 

[rock0001]

probably very similar to you. i would have raised 2.5 or 3 bb preflop ( maybe even shove preflop). but otherwise i would have played the same because villain could also have a hand like aj, or a medium pair so its not easy to read villain hand strenght.

 

[jonaselloco]

probably very similar to you. I would have risen 2.5 or 3 bb before the flop (maybe even push before the flop). But otherwise, I would have played the same because the villain could also have a hand like AJ, or a half pair, so it's not easy to read the strength of the villain's hand.

Hello brother
At least what I saw from my poker experience.
In other times, that hand AQ always went all-in from UTG
The thing is that I have found so many AK AA KK to QQ that they hit me that I am cured of fright hahahaha
I think it was a helping hand to play and wait, but hey, I found that set of 555
They are hands that you really don't know how to play.
Today in the repeating cardschat tournament I finished 25th, I went through the entire tournament until I found a colleague at a table who went 5 allin every 6 hands, wait wait and wait until QQ arrived and I had AA and II was there.
Poker is like that you have to hate it or love it hahaha
greetings and thanks for your answer

 

[Cooking]

I would not play much different from you. I think that a 2.5-3bb raise pre flop would have the same outcome of the hand. But if I was the villain I would reraise in the turn.

 

[jonaselloco]

I wouldn't play much differently from you. I think a 2.5-3bb raise before the flop would have the same hand result. But if I were the villain, I would come up again on the turn.

Hello brother
I think the villain made my bed and I went to bed hahaha
Or if you like it better, I'll pull the line and take the bait.
In that situation, if the villain raised his bet on the turn, it's very likely that I would have retired.
I really didn't imagine he had the set, he was a very firm and serious player.
I wasn't lying, so I played very carefully.
Greetings and thanks for commenting

 

[MrHachiman]

The situation is the following:
Hero 18 BB
Villain 28 BB (board leader)

Hero in UTG raise 2 BB
Villain in UTG 1 call
other in MP call
table rest fold

hero
villain

Flop

Hero raise 2BB
villain call
MP other fold

turn

Hero raise 4BB
villain call

River

hero check
Villain raise 4BB
hero call

Conclusion: el showdown es

Villain with wins Jackpot
Hero loses 12 BB

Already when the villain paid the turn he already felt something strange, because he had seen him do a very similar situation in another hand, not with a set but with a double pair on the turn.
So when raising with my hand it could be logical that he had either again a two pair or else in set.
On the river, since I didn't have a strong hand, I actually checked and honestly, if the villain went all in, he didn't pay him, what's more, I was about to not pay him, but well, the high pair was not negligible.
The other situation could have been that he has 66 or 22 in hand and is either waiting for the set or waiting for the straight, in that situation on the turn he could have folded.
And well, the end was that with those 4 blinds that I had left I ended up in 22nd place so at least I got some payment hahahaha

Can you tell me how you play this hand that I propose to you??? and tell me about your experiences in these situations, or how you would act if you were the villain

Cheers...Carlos

I think the hand is played in a standard way, that is, I don't see an error per se. The opponent has simply hit and with that amount of stack you can't fold or don't value bet.
In terms of hand range, you are ahead of AJ, AT, A9s-A8s, and depending on whether the opponent call looser preflop you can add more Axs or even some Axo. So value makes sense . Keep in mind that he can still pay two streets with hands like TT-66.

-Turn:
Neutral card... he doubles with all his ATs and ATo, but also opens draws like KQs,KJs,QJs, and gives a pair to QTs and maybe JTs (may be in his range to call a flop street if they have backdoor equity for flush but it's a low probabilty because the Flop is dry in fact). So a bet on the Turn also makes sense but you will get him to fold his middle pairs (99-66), so don't value to extract from this part of the range. I think that also Check or Bet is a good decision in that Turn.

-River: There really isn't much point in betting since he's unlikely to call you with a Tx and you only beat AJ and some Axs. Unless you see any particular tendency of this player, like he calls too loose with any pair.
In fact, the board is dry, so if the opponent goes all-in I don't see an easy call situation. I think like you, I'd fold because the only hands I'm winning probably are not river betting.

In the best case of the hand you can check 1 street trying to control the pot and depending on the lines that the rival takes, bet for value on the river or resign on the river. If you want his range to be wider and leave his bluffs in as well as you don't think you have 3 street value vs this player, you should check the turn more often, as by betting the turn again his range will be filtered and he will have more hands made in River. But this very much depends on the opponent, as often against any type of callingstation player this is an easy bet-bet-bet

In Resume: I would bet bet bet as standard, unless I'm playing against someone with a tight profile who I know won't have too many weaks Axo/Axs in their calling range preflop vs UTG. Because that's the part of their range that you can extract all the value from. From a rainbow board, floats are low probability and his hands made as middle pairs are not call 3 streets.

 

[jonaselloco]

I think the hand is played in a standard way, that is, I don't see an error per se. The opponent simply asked and with that amount of chips you can't withdraw or you don't bet on value.
In terms of hand range, you're ahead of AJ, AT, A9s-A8s, and depending on whether the opponent calls the preflop more flexible, you can add more Axs or even some Axo. So the value makes sense. Keep in mind that you can still pay for two streets with hands like TT-66.

-Ride:
Neutral card... doubles with all its AT and ATo, but it also opens projects such as KQ, KJ, QJ, and gives a pair to the QT and perhaps to the JT (it may be in their range to pay a street on the flop if they have backdoor equity) for color but it's a low probability because the Flop is actually dry). Therefore, a bet on the Turn also makes sense, but it will cause you to withdraw from your middle pairs (99-66), so don't consider drawing from this part of the range. I think that Passing or Betting is also a good decision on that Turn.

-River: It doesn't really make much sense to bet since it's unlikely that he'll pay you with a Tx and you only beat AJ and a few AXS. Unless you see a particular tendency of this player, such as that he equals too loosely with any pair.
In fact, the table is dry, so if the opponent goes all-in, I don't see an easy payout situation. I think like you, I would retire because the only hands I'm winning are probably not bets on the river.

At best, hand in hand, you can pass a street trying to control the pot and depending on the lines the opponent takes, bet on value on the river or give up on the river. If you want his range to be wider and leave his bluffs, in addition to not thinking that you have a value of 3 blocks in front of this player, you should check the turn more often, since when you bet again on the turn, his range will be filtered and he will have more hands made in River. But this depends a lot on the opponent, since often against any type of player from the call station, this is an easy bet.

Bottom line: I would bet bet as standard, unless you're playing against someone with a tight profile who I know won't have too many Axo/Axs weak points in their preflop vs UTG call range. Because that's the part of its range from which you can extract all the value. From a rainbow board, floats are of low probability and their hands made as half pairs are not called 3 streets.

Hello friend thank you for commenting
Let's say the hand is played calmly, because the opponent was actually very serious. He always played or matched his firm hands, I mean I didn't see him bluff in at least any hand. In fact, going against him gave me some caution.
What led me to check the river was that it only paid and there I was able to analyze that he could have had a trio or he could also have two pairs.
When it came up after my check on the river, I paid, but not with much enthusiasm. I didn't even have two pairs. As you say, the range of hands, that is, their fan, was very large at that time.
But you see how you always have an AQ and you think you have the world in your hands, so I called the last one and lost.
And well the juice too, achieved its goal. And I bet well because the truth is that if he went all-in on the river or on the turn it is very likely that I would have thrown myself. Because that situation of having the top couple and the villain walking there with two couples or with an ensemble I experienced many times in my life and I'm already quite cured of fear hahahaha
Thank you for commenting friend, very good analysis.
Greetings and blessings. carlos

 

[zipocool]

everything is played normally, I would only check on the turn, because just sometimes he will have sets and through the check (check call) we will lose less then, but on the river we already calmly play the check pass

 

[MrHachiman]

Hello friend thank you for commenting
Let's say the hand is played calmly, because the opponent was actually very serious. He always played or matched his firm hands, I mean I didn't see him bluff in at least any hand. In fact, going against him gave me some caution.
What led me to check the river was that it only paid and there I was able to analyze that he could have had a trio or he could also have two pairs.
When it came up after my check on the river, I paid, but not with much enthusiasm. I didn't even have two pairs. As you say, the range of hands, that is, their fan, was very large at that time.
But you see how you always have an AQ and you think you have the world in your hands, so I called the last one and lost.
And well the juice too, achieved its goal. And I bet well because the truth is that if he went all-in on the river or on the turn it is very likely that I would have thrown myself. Because that situation of having the top couple and the villain walking there with two couples or with an ensemble I experienced many times in my life and I'm already quite cured of fear hahahaha
Thank you for commenting friend, very good analysis.
Greetings and blessings. carlos

yes, as you said your intuition of his hand range and opponent reading was correct. If I could take a lesson from that hand it would be that when I play UTGvsUTG or UTGvsMP against a player like you mention who appears to be competent, I have to be careful about making 3 barrels with TP (especially on dry boards). I'd rather check and potentially lose a street of value than bet river and lose all.
Greetings friend and GL

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Minraising is fine, when you are only 18BB effective.

Flop
Pot is around 8BB, and you only bet 2BB, which is 25% of the pot. But given how short you were, and given that its a dry board, I think, this is fine. You can still easily get it in on the turn and river, and a small sizing can induce someone to spazz raise.

Turn
On the turn you bet 4BB into a pot of 12BB, which is 33% pot. He is not folding any draw or any pair to that sizing, so his range is waaaaay wider than just two pair or sets. Thinking, that you dont have the best hand the vast majority of the time here, is monsters under the bed syndrom. The plan is still to jam any clean river card for value trying to get called mainly by all his worse AX.

River
This was not a clean river though, and I agree with changing to check-evaluate mode. And I also agree, that had he jammed rather than making this tiny little bet of 4BB into a pot of 20BB, then folding would be perfectly legit.

Results
Just a standard cooler, and you definitely lost the minimum. If he dont slowplay, he stack you, or at least he should.

 

[fundiver199]

If I could take a lesson from that hand it would be that when I play UTGvsUTG or UTGvsMP against a player like you mention who appears to be competent,

A competent player dont cold call a small pocket pair from early position against someone, who open with 18BB, The general rule of thump for setmining is, that you need at least 20:1 in implied odds, and some would even say 25:1. Its also problematic being in early position, because a lot of players behind can squeeze, so even with deeper stacks this would be a questionable setmine. In fact a competent player probably dont cold anything at all in this sitution, unless he wants to set a "trap" for the players behind with AA or KK. Other than that if its not good enough to 3-bet and get it in, a competent player just fold here.

So this was clearly a recreational player, who wants to see flops and have fun. And this mean, he can also have every single combo of AX in his range, and when he hit top pair, he is not going to fold it. There are 6 combos of flopped sets but 8 combos of AJ, 8 combos of A9, 8 combos of A8 and so on and so forth. Of course there are also 18 combos of AT, A5 and A4, which we lose to, but against someone, who is bad enough to be in there with 55, we can happily stack off AQ for 18BB effective on a clean board runout.

 

[MrHachiman]

A competent player dont cold call a small pocket pair from early position against someone, who open with 18BB, The general rule of thump for setmining is, that you need at least 20:1 in implied odds, and some would even say 25:1. Its also problematic being in early position, because a lot of players behind can squeeze, so even with deeper stacks this would be a questionable setmine. In fact a competent player probably dont cold anything at all in this sitution, unless he wants to set a "trap" for the players behind with AA or KK. Other than that if its not good enough to 3-bet and get it in, a competent player just fold here.

So this was clearly a recreational player, who wants to see flops and have fun. And this mean, he can also have every single combo of AX in his range, and when he hit top pair, he is not going to fold it. There are 6 combos of flopped sets but 8 combos of AJ, 8 combos of A9, 8 combos of A8 and so on and so forth. Of course there are also 18 combos of AT, A5 and A4, which we lose to, but against someone, who is bad enough to be in there with 55, we can happily stack off AQ for 18BB effective on a clean board runout.

Position is very important. Don't think about the hand he actually had or this specific player, think about the range of a player who appears to be competent and calls UTGvsUTG. It won't have any Ax as you suggest. He will have more times AJo+, ATs+, 77+. Against that range is hard to get 3-street of value of worse hands. If he call with more PP than you think your value bet strategy will only get worse, because it means he has more sets than you thought. We agree that it is not an optimal call preflop, but he probably won't call with any Ax because he's dominated against the UTG range.

Returned, this very much depends on the type player and the hands he has previously called preflop. But , I think that if you call with 55 it doesn't mean that you will call with Axo or A2s-A5s vs UTG (some of those combinations have doubles by the way). So if you do the math, you will probably see that you don't have enough hands to get value from 3 streets.

Edit:
Just for curiosity I did the calculation, and exaggerated a bit giving him all the Axo, although I don't think he has them.



So, after filtering his range two streets by betting Flop and Turn, there aren't enough hands to get value out of on River on this particular board. Always assuming that we play against a "competent" who will call at least with TP. The fact of being UTGvsUTG and that the opponent calls two streets in a dry board filters his range too much.

 

[WDStipa]

I would probably play similar to you.

You say that you were close to the ITM zone. Because of that I might have played more carefully, maybe I wouldn't have raised after the flop and the turn. I might have waited for his reaction, so I don't even know how I would have reacted to his move.

We have all been caught in such a trap and it is difficult to read.

 

[fundiver199]

Don't think about the hand he actually had or this specific player, think about the range of a player who appears to be competent and calls UTGvsUTG.

As I said already, when Hero only has 18BB, a competent player dont have a calling range, except maybe an unbalanced range of AA and KK. So the fact, he actually had 55, prove he is not competent. Its not like, cold calling against a short stack from UTG+1 with 55 is any more profitable than doing it with A8 offsuit or 65s. They are all long term losing plays, and the Villain just got lucky to hit a perfect flop with not only a 5 but also an A/Q on it. Which is something like a 1:30 chance.

 

[MrHachiman]

As I said already, when Hero only has 18BB, a competent player dont have a calling range, except maybe an unbalanced range of AA and KK. So the fact, he actually had 55, prove he is not competent. Its not like, cold calling against a short stack from UTG+1 with 55 is any more profitable than doing it with A8 offsuit or 65s. They are all long term losing plays, and the Villain just got lucky to hit a perfect flop with not only a 5 but also an A/Q on it. Which is something like a 1:30 chance.

Ok but you know that after you have played the hand. You can't assume that from a player in UTGvsUTG until you see it. (Unless you've seen it previously.)
So, if you don't have a clear read from a player, you can't assume that UTGvsUTG is ahead with TP and you can get 3 value streets.

To analyze the hand, you can't based on the hand that actually he had. It was about what you knew about the player up to that point, and what was his most likely range at that position based on that reading. Then you filter the hands that are calling two streets. Since from his preflop range, he will fold a part of the range. So the range that hits the river is very different from the one that calls preflop.
Then, you can calculate how his range would fare vs an opponent's more realistic range based on what hand he had and perform the same calculation. In both cases, I don't see a clear 3 barrel.

 

[fundiver199]

So, after filtering his range two streets by betting Flop and Turn, there aren't enough hands to get value out of on River on this particular board.

That is definitely true though. But change the river card to a blank like Ks instead of 3s, and now Hero has 67% equity against your range with the tweak, that now we are not expecting 22 or 33 to call, since they are essentially busted gutshot draws. To be fair Villain can likely also have a few more hands, Hero lose to. If they call any AX, they likely also call suited connectors, so 54s would flop two pair. And they also dont fold TT to a 25% flop bet, so there are 9 combos of sets on the river.

 

[jonaselloco]

Yes, as you said, your intuition of the range of his hand and the opponent's reading were correct. If I could learn one lesson from that hand, it would be that when I play utGvsUTG or utGvSMP against a player like the one you mentioned who seems to be competent, I have to be careful when making 3 barrels with TP (especially on dry boards). I would rather go through and potentially lose a valuable street than bet on the river and lose everything.
Greetings friend and GL

Good advice brother thank you
I'm going to put it into practice
Health

 

[jonaselloco]

Before the flop
The minimum increase is fine, when you only have an effective 18BB.

Failure
The jackpot is around 8BB and you only bet 2BB, which is 25% of the pot. But given how short you were and since it's a dry board, I think it's okay. You can still do it easily on the turn and river, and a small size can induce someone to climb spazz.

Gyre
On the turn, you bet 4BB on a 12BB pot, which is 33% of the pot. He's not retiring from any project or any pair of that size, so his range is much wider than just two pairs or sets. Thinking that you don't have the best hand most of the time here is a monster syndrome under the bed. The plan is still to jam any clean river card worth by trying to get them to pay mostly for all their worst AXs.

Rio
However, this was not a clean river, and I agree to switch to verification and evaluation mode. And I also agree that if I had bet instead of making this small 4BB bet on a 20BB jackpot, withdrawing would be perfectly legitimate.

Aftermath
Just a standard cooler, and you definitely missed the minimum. If he doesn't play slow, he stacks you up, or at least he should.

Thank you for the answer brother and for the analysis.
Health

 

[christovam]

The situation is the following:
Hero 18 BB
Villain 28 BB (board leader)

Hero in UTG raise 2 BB
Villain in UTG 1 call
other in MP call
table rest fold

hero
villain

Flop

Hero raise 2BB
villain call
MP other fold

turn

Hero raise 4BB
villain call

River

hero check
Villain raise 4BB
hero call

Conclusion: el showdown es

Villain with wins Jackpot
Hero loses 12 BB

Already when the villain paid the turn he already felt something strange, because he had seen him do a very similar situation in another hand, not with a set but with a double pair on the turn.
So when raising with my hand it could be logical that he had either again a two pair or else in set.
On the river, since I didn't have a strong hand, I actually checked and honestly, if the villain went all in, he didn't pay him, what's more, I was about to not pay him, but well, the high pair was not negligible.
The other situation could have been that he has 66 or 22 in hand and is either waiting for the set or waiting for the straight, in that situation on the turn he could have folded.
And well, the end was that with those 4 blinds that I had left I ended up in 22nd place so at least I got some payment hahahaha

Can you tell me how you play this hand that I propose to you??? and tell me about your experiences in these situations, or how you would act if you were the villain

Cheers...Carlos

Even with an already weird call turn, I would also do the same thing, because I would think his range would be Ax.