FT bubble shove?

[CfPoker]

180 person $4 MTT. Top 18 get paid with 18th-10th getting a whopping $8 for their efforts. 10 people remain...

My shoves have got some respect so far. The only two that were called I had AK and ran into AQ both times. Should I be shoving this or waiting for a better spot?

pokerstars Game #17108177323: Tournament #86679197, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (500/1000) - 2008/04/30 - 17:57:01 (ET)
Table '86679197 13' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: PoKeRkNuTT (57532 in chips)
Seat 2: CfPoker333 (9510 in chips)
Seat 3: ttamsox (4188 in chips)
Seat 5: Renebluf (13124 in chips)
Seat 6: NorseB (23693 in chips)
PoKeRkNuTT: posts the ante 100
CfPoker333: posts the ante 100
ttamsox: posts the ante 100
Renebluf: posts the ante 100
NorseB: posts the ante 100
NorseB: posts small blind 500
PoKeRkNuTT: posts big blind 1000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CfPoker333 [As 8s]
CfPoker333: ??

 

[AlexeiVronsky]

Based on the stacks at your table a shove is probably marginally profitable in terms of chip EV, though BB has a huge stack so he might be willing to call you with any pretty good hand reducing your fold equity a lot, but I'd prefer to know the stacks at the other tables, if someone's in imminent threat of elimination this could be a very costly shove in terms of tournament EV. If the 4188 stack is the shortest stack remaining I might consider it, but I'd probably still prefer to wait and take the blind so you have good odds against the short stack who's going to be UTG next hand, and you can decide if you want to go to war with him if he raises when he's facing going into the BB next hand (and if no one else has come into the hand against him.) Having position preflop in this situation next hand is a huge advantage, as all your plays are going to be preflop plays. You'll also be able to put him all-in from the SB if no one's put in a raise. So I'd say usually wait for the next hand.

 

[t1riel]

UTG, it would be a risky move even if you have a TAG table image. However, the chances of you having a better hand are slim since you have only nine big blinds left (8 if you fold). You're already in the money and being one of the shortstacks, I would consider pushing.

 

[switch0723]

instafold imo, id rather push any 2 from small blind and button over pushing utg into HUGE stacks bb.

 

[Melkor]

Yeah, I would never push here. The BB is almost compelled to call us with a decent hand, that is ignoring the other 4 players, and we don't want a call.

Wait for a better spot, we have a tiny bit of room left and one more guy out means we get paid something decent.

 

[OzExorcist]

I probably wait for a better spot as well - payouts should start going up quickly if you make the final table, and even though we're short handed we'll likely be able to find better spots to steal from.

 

[p0K35]

But, But, But, you have deadman's hand, and you sooted!!!!!!!!

 

[rwilson]

Too risky for my likings. As someone else said, the BB is almost compelled to call with any 2 here and you don't really want callers. I'd let it go and try to defend the blinds if possible. you've still got a little time left in this situation to be patient.

 

[OzExorcist]

But, But, But, you have deadman's hand, and you sooted!!!!!!!!

'tain't the dead man's hand until he's got another one of each to match

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

I don't like shoving UTG and into the two big stacks' blinds at all here. If we were down to say 5-6k in chips we would need to shove out of necessity, but as it is I probably fold.

 

[CfPoker]

No, neither do I, and I have no idea why I did it. The second I pressed the all in button I was kicking myself for the rash moment of stupidity. Annoying really as I'm usually quite good at being patient and waiting for a decent spot. Ah well, I'll chalk this one down to experience

 

[SavagePenguin]

Sucks that the two people who can call with similiar hands are in the blinds when you're UTG.

UTG I think you have to just let this one go. Maybe if you had A/T sooted, and probably with A/J.

Dorkus, what's your range for shoving in this position?

 

[KingCurtis]

easy fold, but some do remember your hand in relation to respecting your raise, but some times, well most of the time people do not remember so sometimes thats a bad decision

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Dorkus, what's your range for shoving in this position?

pretty much agree with you, something like ATs+/AJ+/66+ seems reasonable.

 

[SavagePenguin]

pretty much agree with you, something like ATs+/AJ+/66+ seems reasonable.

Sweet! I have a lot of respect for your tournament analysis.

I'd probably shove with 8's or better. Not sixes, but maybe 7's.

 

[AlexeiVronsky]

Oops answered without reading the question all the way, was thinking, 'cause of the title, it was still the bubble, it's probably still too weak to push with. People often tend to be a bit more conservative in their calls here than optimal, so you'd probably still show a little profit with a push here, but I'd say it's generally going to be a fold as the risk just isn't worth it.
I was thinking shoving range of something like, but it depends a lot on the stacks at the other table: 55+/ATs+/AQo+/KTs+/QTs+/JTs