$Freeroll NLHE MTT Turbo: $Freeroll NLHE MTT Turbo: A decent shove? (Late tourney)

[TheArnie]

$Freeroll NLHE MTT Turbo: $Freeroll NLHE MTT Turbo: A decent shove? (Late tourney)

pokerstars Hand #144036464270: Tournament #1359670618, Freeroll Hold'em No Limit - Level XXIII (6000/12000) - 2015/11/19 0:08:34 EET [2015/11/18 17:08:34 ET]
Table '1359670618 221' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: MIS575 (145038 in chips)
Seat 2: sanaekarim (165748 in chips)
Seat 3: macsuper1 (264094 in chips)
Seat 5: cr0ndd (81571 in chips)
Seat 6: jpcoffee (30416 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 7: PAMALOjE (181432 in chips)
Seat 8: Gugutorj (154488 in chips)
Seat 9: TheArnijs (161933 in chips) (cutoff)
MIS575: posts the ante 1200
sanaekarim: posts the ante 1200
macsuper1: posts the ante 1200
cr0ndd: posts the ante 1200
jpcoffee: posts the ante 1200
PAMALOjE: posts the ante 1200
Gugutorj: posts the ante 1200
TheArnijs: posts the ante 1200
sanaekarim: posts small blind 6000
macsuper1: posts big blind 12000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to TheArnijs [8c 9d]
cr0ndd: folds
jpcoffee: folds
PAMALOjE: folds
Gugutorj: folds
TheArnijs: raises 148733 to 160733 and is all-in
MIS575: folds
sanaekarim: folds
macsuper1: calls 148733
*** FLOP *** [Ah 7d 6c]
*** TURN *** [Ah 7d 6c] <font color='black'>2♣</font>
*** RIVER *** [Ah 7d 6c 2c] <font color='red'>9♥</font>
*** SHOW DOWN ***
macsuper1: shows [Tc Ac] (a pair of Aces)
TheArnijs: shows [8c 9d] (a pair of Nines)
macsuper1 collected 337066 from pot
TheArnijs finished the tournament in 46th place and received $0.06.
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 337066 | Rake 0
Board [Ah 7d 6c 2c 9h]
Seat 1: MIS575 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: sanaekarim (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: macsuper1 (big blind) showed [Tc Ac] and won (337066) with a pair of Aces
Seat 5: cr0ndd folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: jpcoffee folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: PAMALOjE folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Gugutorj folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: TheArnijs showed [8c 9d] and lost with a pair of Nines

I had approx 13BB in a cuttoff. I decided to push this connectors, because
1. Considering he would call only with AT+; 55+; KQ; QJ; JT; KJ. Unless he'd have 88+ pocket pair, I'd still have atleast 40% odds to win, and considering pot size, I definitely had pot odds to call. (sorry for no exact math)
2. Prizes are somewhat decent only on final table, so I was willing to risk more to get to it with decent stack.

Is my reasoning flawed? I appreciate feedback in advance.

 

[ph_il]

Good shove, honestly.

With a stack your size and ~29K dead money, a shove is picking up the pot a lot of the time, increasing your stack almost 20%.

You could shove a wide range of hands here, except for absolute bottom, and have decent equity. Your math and analysis is on point.

When short stacked deep in an MTT, taking advantage of spots like this to pick up decent pots uncontested is key to staying alive, especially when it's folded to you in LP.

 

[dnegsisabadreg]

How many players are left? This seems like it's probably a +chipEV shove, but ICM might make it a fold depending on what the structure is like. It looks like there's a short stack sitting out, so it's pretty disastrous if we bust before him near a significant bubble.

 

[TheArnie]

How many players are left? This seems like it's probably a +chipEV shove, but ICM might make it a fold depending on what the structure is like. It looks like there's a short stack sitting out, so it's pretty disastrous if we bust before him near a significant bubble.

Can't provide any exact ICM math, but it's 20$ freeroll, but there is significant bubble (IMO) only before like 4th/5th place, all others until like top 10 get like 6/8/10 cents so my main concern was getting to final with decent stack.