$Freeroll NLHE MTT: Is this fold too tight?

[Ianmacca99]

CC freeroll blinds 400/800

Hero MP with roughly 21k opens to 1,965 with 10d 10s

Folds to sb hughie the hat 23k roughly jams

BB folds

Hero?

18 left with 15 paid
Did not want to gamble at this point up against probably a strong range

 

[PsychoVas]

You would probably be ahead, even in a coin-flip situation, but I understand your hesitation, so close to the bubble. I might have folded that too...
(Naaah I would have open-jammed probably and lost to any Ace-rag...)

 

[Norman Vasquez]

CC freeroll blinds 400/800

Hero MP with roughly 21k opens to 1,965 with 10d 10s

Folds to sb hughie the hat 23k roughly jams

BB folds

Hero?

18 left with 15 paid
Did not want to gamble at this point up against probably a strong range

Well, the best answer is the best answer for a ton of questions, IT DEPENDS!. If you think Villian is only jamming with 99+,KQs,AJs+ is a fold. But if he do it with 88+, ATs+, KQs,AQo+, is a call. But you need to be careful folding too much in the bubble, because the big prize is deep in the final table, and you only get there by winning the flip coins, and you can not win them if you don’t play them.

 

[venycyos]

I probably would fold this.

 

[yomarianob]

I would probably open jam here. As played, I think you should fold being so close to the money, unless you have some read on the villain.

 

[fundiver199]

He is jamming almost 25BB, so you are not getting a very good price, and your equity against his range is probably not more than 50% at best. Sure he could have some hands, you are ahead of, like 88-99 or A2s-A5s, but he also has JJ+ and a lot of hands like AQ+, which are coinflips. So calling here will se you bust around half the time, while folding leave you with an absolute workable stack. All in all I think, this is a good disciplined laydown.

 

[Jon Poker]

At best you are flipping so the answer here isn't too hard to find - are you trying to make the $$? If so, this is a fold because while he could be doing this with 77, 88, or 99 - those are pretty unlikely and at best we are flipping vs two overs.

If we aren't worried about necessarily making the $$ and rather are concentrating on correct play and looking to set ourselves up to win the tournament - then we have to call. TT is just too strong to fold to what would be considered a rejam sized stack - perfect for applying pressure to any similar sized stacks raising in front. Anyhow, the point is we are ahead of enough of their range where we could justify the call taking any edge we may have. As play gets more difficult and we start to improve and facing fields where our opponents are playing just as well/better than us, we have to take every edge we can get. If we think we have roughly 55% equity vs their range, that 5% edge should be enuff for us to call. Again like I said, this is ONLY a strategy for playing correct odds and has no bearing on ICM or your desire to min cash. It's all about a basic two questions. Do I have an edge? Does it warrant a call? We see lots of big names on TV busting/winning some high pressure spots that could go either way - the fact of the matter is they would rather play correctly and capitalize every advantage they may have instead of letting the fear of busting cloud their decisions.

That being said this is a freeroll...all the $$ is up top in these things and unless my stack is in the top 9 of the remaining field - I am snapping this one off. If I think I have the best hand here I am always calling. Same goes for smaller buy ins that I am well bankrolled for - sure I dont want to bust out this close to the $$ - but I also don't want to do all this work and invest all this time for a min cash either. If it were a tournament where even min cashing would be good for us, maybe we took a shot at one outside of our bankroll limits and we still had a fighting stack if we have to fold our way to a cash for a few hands - sure, no need to so anything crazy. When I am dead set on min cashing and I know I have enough chips to make it - I will only play AK, QQ, KK, and AA for those few orbits I need to burst the bubble.

This ended up longer than anticipated but I hope these perspectives help and offer some clarity in some form. Thanks for reading.

 

[fundiver199]

At best you are flipping so the answer here isn't too hard to find - are you trying to make the $$? If so, this is a fold because while he could be doing this with 77, 88, or 99 - those are pretty unlikely and at best we are flipping vs two overs.

If we aren't worried about necessarily making the $$ and rather are concentrating on correct play and looking to set ourselves up to win the tournament - then we have to call. TT is just too strong to fold to what would be considered a rejam sized stack - perfect for applying pressure to any similar sized stacks raising in front. Anyhow, the point is we are ahead of enough of their range where we could justify the call taking any edge we may have. As play gets more difficult and we start to improve and facing fields where our opponents are playing just as well/better than us, we have to take every edge we can get. If we think we have roughly 55% equity vs their range, that 5% edge should be enuff for us to call. Again like I said, this is ONLY a strategy for playing correct odds and has no bearing on ICM or your desire to min cash. It's all about a basic two questions. Do I have an edge? Does it warrant a call? We see lots of big names on TV busting/winning some high pressure spots that could go either way - the fact of the matter is they would rather play correctly and capitalize every advantage they may have instead of letting the fear of busting cloud their decisions.

That being said this is a freeroll...all the $$ is up top in these things and unless my stack is in the top 9 of the remaining field - I am snapping this one off. If I think I have the best hand here I am always calling. Same goes for smaller buy ins that I am well bankrolled for - sure I dont want to bust out this close to the $$ - but I also don't want to do all this work and invest all this time for a min cash either. If it were a tournament where even min cashing would be good for us, maybe we took a shot at one outside of our bankroll limits and we still had a fighting stack if we have to fold our way to a cash for a few hands - sure, no need to so anything crazy. When I am dead set on min cashing and I know I have enough chips to make it - I will only play AK, QQ, KK, and AA for those few orbits I need to burst the bubble.


This ended up longer than anticipated but I hope these perspectives help and offer some clarity in some form. Thanks for reading.

This time I have to respectfully disagree with you. This is not a spot, where "pushing an edge" comes to mind, if we call. The word "ICM suiside" is much more fitting. We are 3 from the payout, so there is a high bubble factor, and he does not have, what is normally considered a rejam stack. A rejam stack is 15BB, and he is shipping 26BB in the middle.

This mean, that our pot odds are really bad, and I would not be surpriced, if an ICM program would say, that we need QQ or even KK to call here. Being able to fold in spots like this is actually part of, what allow us to have a chance of running deep and winning tournaments.

 

[Jon Poker]

This time I have to respectfully disagree with you. This is not a spot, where "pushing an edge" comes to mind, if we call. The word "ICM suiside" is much more fitting. We are 3 from the payout, so there is a high bubble factor, and he does not have, what is normally considered a rejam stack. A rejam stack is 15BB, and he is shipping 26BB in the middle.

This mean, that our pot odds are really bad, and I would not be surpriced, if an ICM program would say, that we need QQ or even KK to call here. Being able to fold in spots like this is actually part of, what allow us to have a chance of running deep and winning tournaments.

I don't mind the disagreement at all, this is where some differences between strategies shows up and there's nothing wrong with a discussion of the matter. Surely ICM is a big factor here, I agree 100% but at 21k - or roughly 20bb - we are not all that healthy and TT is a strong hand to be folding. I really think an ICM program would tell us to call here.

As far as rejam stack sizing goes I have to respectfully disagree with you on this matter. Everyone knows that 15bb or less should be looking to shove, this is the stack that should be playing push/fold poker so this is normal and when we raise we should be aware of their position at the table and have a predetermined idea of what we will do if they jam. So I always consider these to be normal sized jamming stacks. That being said when we have stacks between 18 - 28bb, sometimes even up to 30bb, I like to think if these as rejam stacks. They are not super short but they are not super healthy either - also gives them the perfect stack size to move in and apply max pressure and max fold equity to hands like ours.


If our opponent is ripping it all in here with 88 or ATs - we quickly find ourselves in a weird spot and our TTs shrink up. Now all of a sudden we dont know what to do...the move looks strong and does give hands like ours bad pricing to continue. Also when this happens and they do get called obviously AT specifically would be in bad shape vs our holding but other hands like AJ+ are not doing so bad and are at least flipping. I also think players who implement this strategy are fairly balanced as well - sometimes it will be just as strong as it looks while others it's going to be Ax suited or a smaller pocket pair.

 

[Jon Poker]

Icmizer shows us this is a snap call. Looking at the chart 77s are marginal while even 88 and 99 are snap calls here. ICM is a funny thing and can be a mother - but I think the more we familiarize ourselves with it the more we recognize these spots and know what we should be doing.

Anyhow. Does this mean we should call off here all the time? Well...according to Icmizer - yes we should - but if you think you can fold your way to the $$ and that is your ultimate goal, then dont raise this hand to begin with, TT is notoriously hard to play post flop because there is almost always going to be one over on the flop and against an aggressive opponent it gets weird quick. Just fold and move on! This spot is player dependent 100%. I just always try to stick to the mathematical portion and game theory side- trying not to be results oriented - and letting things fall where they may. Though if this wer a bigger buy in tournament for myself - I would certainly fold here if I were a stack ranking of 12/18 or better. Any shorter - I have to take the risk as there is no guarantee the other short stacks will go out before me and I cannot miss an strong opportunity to double up and severely cripple an opponent.

 

[fundiver199]

When using programs like this, its important to always remember the old slogan used among programmers "garbage in garbage out". To perform a correct calculation ICMmizer need to know the exact stack sizes of everyone left in the tournament and even more important the payout structure. If the program does not know the payout structure, it can only perform a chip EV calculation, which is kind of missing the whole point.

I might be wrong here, but I suspect, that this is a chip EV calculation, that you showed? It does for sure look pretty much like, what I would call with, if this was a cash game. However the whole point is, that because of the payout structure chips won right now are worth a lot less than chips lost. So rather than being able to make a break-even call with 77 we need something stronger. Exactly how much stronger we need a program like ICMizer to tell us.

For me whenever I am in dought, I would always much rather make a small folding mistake than a big calling mistake in a spot like this. And its not about "wanting to cash" at all cost. Its about maximizing my long term EV in tournaments, especially if I think, I have a skill edge on the remaining players. If we bust, we can not only not cash, we can also not win. So there is a lot of value in trying to chip up slowly, and pushing rather than calling, because then at least some of the time we will pick it up uncontested.

Last Friday I was playing a 12$ tournament, where I was almost dead on the bubble. I was down to a little over just one blind, and my only goal was really to make it to the money. Which I did. But then I actually was able to recover my stack and finish the tournament in second place. So there really is truth to the old saying "a chip and a chair".