$Freeroll NLHE: Interesting bubble decision

[DaveE]

$Freeroll NL HE: Interesting bubble decision

Top 9 pay. 10 players left, has been that way for around 30 hands. I've added around 6K to my stack in this time solely with uncontested preflop raises. This being a great situation for me, of course I've been giving BTN a walk the few times she's raised me in the small blind. She's in desperation mode now, as is a player at the other table. Bubble burst is imminent.


Full Tilt Poker Cardschat.com League Freeroll No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t200/t400 Blinds + t50 - 5 players - View hand 603535
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: t8432 M = 9.92
UTG: t4413 M = 5.19
CO: t2330 M = 2.74
BTN: t1020 M = 1.20
Hero (SB): t16661 M = 19.60

Pre Flop: (t850) Hero is SB with Q ♠ Q ♦
2 folds, BTN raises to t970 all in, Hero calls t770, BB raises to t8382 all in, Hero??

BTW BB is second biggest stack overall.

 

[Jillychemung]

Easy fold for me. You haven't given any reads on the BB so ....

You've told the BB that you'll be glad to take out the BTN and still the BB shoves over you. The BB has to be pretty confident that they have a great hand (AA/KK) and won't mind you calling them, this would be a pretty risky bluff especially since you'll get to see the BB cards.

 

[DaveE]

Easy fold for me. You haven't given any reads on the BB so ....

You've told the BB that you'll be glad to take out the BTN and still the BB shoves over you. The BB has to be pretty confident that they have a great hand (AA/KK) and won't mind you calling them, this would be a pretty risky bluff especially since you'll get to see the BB cards.

I should mention that this was not your typical donkfest freeroll. It was the CC $150 bonus game for CC league players.

No reads, no real history, but he definitely knows how to play.

 

[TopDonk]

what are prizes?

I doubt I am folding QQ here unless its like sat situation where all 9 prizes are equal.

I mean even if u both bust u get 9th right?

 

[DaveE]

what are prizes?

I doubt I am folding QQ here unless its like sat situation where all 9 prizes are equal.

I mean even if u both bust u get 9th right?

Regular top heavy payout structure. I can't be busted but I could lose my big chip advantage for when the table dynamics change (back to 8 or 9 players). Then again if I call and KO him I'll have a HUGE chip advantage at the final table.

Is it worth the risk?

 

[TopDonk]

Easy fold for me. You haven't given any reads on the BB so ....

You've told the BB that you'll be glad to take out the BTN and still the BB shoves over you. The BB has to be pretty confident that they have a great hand (AA/KK) and won't mind you calling them, this would be a pretty risky bluff especially since you'll get to see the BB cards.

This is DEF not easy! Also no way we can narrow his range to AA/KK here. I would give him like TT+, AJs+ AQo+.

Regular top heavy payout structure. I can't be busted but I could lose my big chip advantage for when the table dynamics change (back to 8 or 9 players). Then again if I call and KO him I'll have a HUGE chip advantage at the final table.

Is it worth the risk?

O yeah sorry misread ur stack.

see when I read the HH, I assumed u called to check down with BB and bust guy, as u all get the same prizes.

or

flat called to induce action from BB!

I dont see any other reason to flat here. So i would like to know ur reasoning for flatting?

I am r/c this all the time. IDK maybe I am way out but QQ is far to strong a hand for me to fold.

I guess if u did raise instead of flat and he still reshoves we can give him a tighter range. but still not tight enough to fold QQ tho. Unless all stacks on the other table are <3k even then I call.

Lol in summary I call. Interested in others thoughts tho and the outcome after more responses.

TD

 

[Jillychemung]

When the action gets to the BB the pot is 2590 so BB is getting almost 3-1 odds to just call. There is no side pot. BB is also 2nd big stack in the tournament. If BB has a hand like TT-QQ, AJs, AQo why would they risk an additional 7K just to stay 2nd big stack when they could risk 570 to do the same thing? If your only read on the BB is that 'he definitely knows how to play' then a shove here by the BB only means one thing AA/KK. With anything else the BB would just call, see what the flop brings and most likely check it down to get to the final table where there will be more/better opportunities to make less risky plays.

 

[TopDonk]

When the action gets to the BB the pot is 2590 so BB is getting almost 3-1 odds to just call. There is no side pot. BB is also 2nd big stack in the tournament. If BB has a hand like TT-QQ, AJs, AQo why would they risk an additional 7K just to stay 2nd big stack when they could risk 570 to do the same thing? If your only read on the BB is that 'he definitely knows how to play' then a shove here by the BB only means one thing AA/KK. With anything else the BB would just call, see what the flop brings and most likely check it down to get to the final table where there will be more/better opportunities to make less risky plays.

So u think he is more likely to shove with AK but not QQ?

If he knows how to play he does not want to fold super strong hands to a BTN jam and SB flat.

Surely our hand is so far underepped that AA/KK and AK are not the only hands in his range. We could probably have top 20% of hands in our flatting range to try and bust the BTN.

 

[DaveE]

I flat called figuring BB would just come along for the ride. He hasn't played back at me once vs my preflop raises since the bubble hit. I figure he likes where he stands going into the final table, why risk taking on the big stack? The shove screams monster to me, but folding QQ preflop really goes against my nature.

Tough decision.

 

[TopDonk]

idk its not that tough to me.

IMO we are ahead of his range (do u really think he can only have aces and kings to?) and far enough ahead that we should be getting this in even with ICM considerations.

Also if I am wrong and lose I still have 20 BBs. If I am wrong and suck out or am right and hold we have huge stack going into FT and very good chance of top 3 finish.

 

[DaveE]

My flatting looks weak, so no, it's not definitely a monster...could be Ax or mid pockets, but why would he risk 2nd best stack for a smallish pot?

 

[arahel_jazz]

I would put the BB on a standard squeeze with AQ, AK or TT+.

Pros: you win, you're golden.
Cons: costs you a bit over half your stack to call, your M would be still around 10-12, which would probably still be higher than 50% of the final table.

I'm calling here. You are 80/20 over random hands.

 

[Jillychemung]

Also if I am wrong and lose I still have 20 BBs. If I am wrong and suck out or am right and hold we have huge stack going into FT and very good chance of top 3 finish.

IMHO # of BBs is the wrong thing to look at. If we lose we drop to an M=7.8 (shove/fold range) where as if we fold our M=14.8, considering that the ss is knocked out and tables combine to a single 9-man w/ 400/200/50, and we still have room to maneuver somewhat. If we fold we are still the CL no matter what happens. IMHO in this case the chips we gain are much less valuable than the chips that we lose. Being the CL at the start of the FT with a stack that is 2x bigger than 3rd still gives us a good chance to make top 3. If we win our stack is still only 4x 3rd place (assuming in both cases that 3rd place stack will be around 6K). If we win there are 8 stacks in shove/fold mode and if we fold and BB wins then there are 7 stacks in shove/fold mode. For me the risk/reward ratio is just not here in this hand.

 

[TopDonk]

My flatting looks weak, so no, it's not definitely a monster...could be Ax or mid pockets, but why would he risk 2nd best stack for a smallish pot?

If u think this is a risk then imho u r playing the wrong game. I mean your hand is so underepped. In fact its probably that inderepped that he might not even shove the top of his range. he might elect to r/c with top 5% and shove rest. I mean if u hav 77 in this spot then sure you can say "why take the risk" but not here imo.

 

[DaveE]

Anyone else with an opinion?