$Freeroll NLHE: BYP; 100$ FR; TT push?

[poloporasa]

$Freeroll NL HE: BYP; 100$ FR; TT push?

Barnyardpoker No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 100$ weekly Final,
500/1000 Blinds (7 handed)

CO ($6280) (Hero)
Button ($14490)
SB ($17600)
BB ($11100)
MP1 ($3023)
MP2 ($3764)
MP3 ($17750)

blinds 500 1000

Preflop: Hero is CO with T

, T

3 folds, Hero??

At this time Hero is 11th from 21 players. 20 player are in the money. The last 10 players will get a ticket to the monthly final.

Is it wise to push or better to fold and waiting for being in the money?


Best regards

 

[aznman08]

is this a sattelite? you have to throw this hand. remember 1st-20th receive the same prize and since MP1 and MP2 are about to hit the blinds they will be playing a hand soon. better to sit and let one of them get knocked out instead of trying to double up and perhaps busting out

 

[Worak]

is this a sattelite? you have to throw this hand. remember 1st-20th receive the same prize and since MP1 and MP2 are about to hit the blinds they will be playing a hand soon. better to sit and let one of them get knocked out instead of trying to double up and perhaps busting out

^^ this +1

Is there an ante ?

If the blinds don't move up you'll have 4 orbits until you will be forced all in with ATC.

There are 10 players with smaller stacks than you - nearly 100% that one of them busts before you need getting desperate.

After the bubble bursts you want to reach the first 10 places - that would be a new situation.

 

[poloporasa]

Places 11-20 get the same amount of money. At the final tabel the prices raise with every seat. And only the FT gets the ticket.

There was no ante at this point.

If I get this right, the opinoin is to fold until the bubbel burst and than focus on the intention to reach the finaltabel?

 

[Worak]

Places 11-20 get the same amount of money. At the final tabel the prices raise with every seat. And only the FT gets the ticket.

There was no ante at this point.

If I get this right, the opinoin is to fold until the bubbel burst and than focus on the intention to reach the finaltabel?

Exactly - you don't want to bubble out here.

 

[poloporasa]

Exactly - you don't want to bubble out here.

And I do not want to push here either?

 

[Worak]

And I do not want to push here either?

I wouldn't - it's your decision and it can well work too.

If you have guts and won't whine if you bubble out - shove.

But looking at risk - reward folding is much safer here.

 

[Dwilius]

Unless the payouts are very flat, I think this is a push. There are two 3k stacks at a short table that could be waiting for the bubble too. If you wait to get hit with the blinds you'll lose chips, fold equity when you shove, and in all likelihood you won't see a better hand before blinding out.

I'm guessing 11-20th only pay ~$2 of the total $100 prizepool?

 

[dj11]

Tuff decision. Lets examine the pertinent factors.

-With these blinds you don't have too many more opportunities and are depending on someone else to make a mistake. No antes are mentioned so your 'M' is 4 +. (considering the bubble situation this fact is neutral IMO). I would normally expect antes at these blind levels, so that 'M' value is iffy.

-I think you have enough fold equity here with a shove to make 3 larger stacks evaluate their positions very seriously. They are considering their run at the tickets, and making them make the decision is going to make their life difficult at a time when they are trying to make sure they don't screw up. This is always a bit risky, but I have seen this bubble point in sats last longer than 5 orbits. You probably only have 3 orbits left (blinds go up when?) and after one more orbit your fold equity is useless. (I'm assigning a neutral value to this info tho I think arguments could be made either way)

-You know that in the next 2 hands the short stacks at your table will be nearly 50% pot committed simply by posting the blinds. We don't have stacks from the other tables (at least 2 other tables) So that would be a factor toward you mucking your tens. This factor alone may be good enough reason to muck your hand here.

- Money starts at 20th place, but tickets don't start till 10th place. If you muck your 10's here, you will most likely make the money, but you will also be positioned fairly weakly for making the ticket bubble. This makes the shove more appealing. Almost countering the factor above.

So we end up with 2 neutrals, 1 muck and 1 shove vote. But the muck vote is safer, and the money may easily be just 2 hands away.

After this much thinking (head hurts now), I will change my original thought that I would shove here, and now think mucking is better. There is an ICM calculator link around here somewhere. this is a heavily ICM related decision, and you should probably understand what ICM deals with. Not something most of us can do in game, the concepts are important to begin understanding situations like this better.

 

[ludo90]

If it was me i wouldve folded this. 10-10 is a really overrated hand in this kind of situations.
Sure som big stack are able to call whit K-8Suit etc, but they are most likely to call whit q-j and etcetra.

Not saying its the best move not that good calculating pot odds etc although I WOULD fold it. Had to many chip leaders bad beating me in this kind of situations made me scared of them.

 

[poloporasa]

@dj11: (hope your head stoped hurting! )
Harrington says that with a M=4 I am in the red phase and got nothing to loose. He suggest to first-in-push with any pair, suited connectors and any facecard. So to say any two cards with a reasonably equity.

Thats what ICM says here as well: first-in-push with a range of 29,7% (22+ A2s+ A4o+ K6s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 97s+ 87s)

So the math is (and was) clear in this case. It says to push.

But I wanted to know what you guys suggested. Wait for the money and than push is what i got from most of you.

Infact that would have been the right decision in this case because the button had AA and I finished 21.

Thanks alot for the helpful answers, I really appreciate your efforts and your opinions!

 

[MrSwissCheese]

I second the "It depends on what you're happy with" idea.

However, I think this would be a great opportunity to tap your time bank, too. Since you're on the bubble, you should be playing hand for hand - it would be worth taking a look around and seeing if anyone with a shorter stack than you is all in - If they are and you both lose, you're out in 20th anyway. If you can stall until you see how that hand turns out, even better.

The other thing that we don't have are the relative positions of the 10 people below you - are MP1 and MP2 in 12th and 13th or 20th and 21st? Is there someone at the other table that the next small blind will put them all in? I would imagine MP1 and MP2 are more along the lines of 15th and 16th place - and there is probably someone around with less than 1 BB left.

For what it's worth, if it were me, I would fold unless I could be guaranteed of the money (someone at one of the other tables with a shorter stack going out in the same hand). I certainly understand MATH says the correct decision is to shove, however, I would be pissed if I went out on the bubble - I'd rather have the money and no ticket than be out the money and the ticket. Best case I would have only a slightly better chance of reaching the final table.

 

[Dwilius]

Infact that would have been the right decision in this case because the button had AA and I finished 21.

Just because one of three players left to act happened to have one of the four better starting hands than yours doesn't make a difference to your decision. You had no way of knowing that, and if 20th only payed $2 then you have to push here. btw I didn't get an answer to how much 20th paid.

 

[poloporasa]

@ D'wilius:
Sorry, thought I mentioned that you guessed nearly right. 20th-11th get payed just a dollar. I do not think that I will miss that dollar. Even if I am building a BR out of nothing on that site.

My goal was to reach the final tabel to get the ticket. Thats why I pushed here. I had a look on the other two tabels and of course hit the time button. Nobody was allin that hand. I knew the chances for a better hand behind my were fairly low.

Anyways, it is okay for me. I lost against a better hand. If I would have had aces and got sucked out I would be kind of pissed. But I am not.

With this thread I wanted to get food for thoughts. And I got that.
Thanks again for all your answers. Really appreciate

 

[Big_Narfy]

Fold the hand wait for the ticket after that it dosent matter its paid all the same in the money a ticket if he gets a bad beat hes out and gets nothing fold and wait.

 

[bfw0082]

Push all in, get in a good position to wait out the rest of the little stacks, who knows when you will get a hand you can push with, and if the shorties keep getting lucky you will be the one sitting there saying, man I wish I played 10 10...

 

[muck]

For me a clear fold. First goal to get in the money is not far away and you should be able to keep on playing for heading to final table afterwards (10 other smaller stacks, high blinds). If the SB and BB would not dominate you heavily with the stacks, I would consider a push perhaps because you would stay in the game in case you loose.
Saludos

 

[kcirjr]

Ya you need to push here. You dont have enough chips to just raise anything less then everything especially with the blinds being at a thousand. The chances of someone having a better hand are unlikely