Folding Kings Online?

[theskillzdatklls]

I was watching last weeks sunday $5200 freezeout replay on pokerstars, i watch these vids a lot. and something happened that has reaaaallly bothered me and I'm asking for opinions on this..

Anyway, the situation was something like:

UTG 3xbets w/ w/e
UTG+2 flat calls 3xbet w/ w/e
MP 3x bets over with KK
MP+1 = ALL IN w/ 1010

folds to UTG = fold
UTG+2 = fold

MP w/ KK = fold.

stack sizes were all comparable etc.

this seems like the dumbest thing i have ever seen, ever. however, admittedly, i probably also don't understand that much about high-stakes games. is that even common play out there?

the way i see it, even with aces, you are only 80-95% to win. With kings, that percentage barely drops in the overall grand scheme of things even considering the 3.9% chance an opponent has aces at the table. any fold of kings like that would be to your strong disfavor brining -ev... correct?

 

[un-diluted]

I watch them as well, but moreso the sun. mil.

what were the stack sizes? important in freezeout

 

[un-diluted]

sry just reread the orig post.

satck sizes all comp.


kk should shove here every day, all day afaik

4 handed? ?how many times does kk run into aa? nevermind, dont answer that. it's one of those nights

 

[naruto_miu]

I've actually been in similar situations alot but not on high stakes but 25/50, and could say that I began thinkin of the odds of my oppent holding AA when i've got kings, and trust me it happens and alot, but then again that's why this gentleman was playing at those stakes and I can't seem to move up

 

[Dwilius]

It only shows final table, stacks and blinds are large, you mean 10000 chips? Still bizarre, I guess sticking with "fourbets are usually aces or kings" premise, but I like to watch these too and there are so many steal/resteal plays that its very hard to believe this was a fold.

 

[theskillzdatklls]

these guys are the masters of deception with their steals, and i wish this replay was still running so you all could watch it, but like i said, it was last weeks.. still, equity on kings makes them impossible to fold no matter what imo, most of the time you'll be at 70-90%, and 4% of the time you get kings you'll be at 18%, big deal..

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Well it's obviously a terrible fold against someone who will shove with TT in that spot. He's either unknown to the KK guy or clearly not nitty enough to justify laying down KK.

I suppose at a stretch we could say UTG is EP stealing, UTG+2 is cold calling with a marginal hand and MP is squeezing, but the chances of all the above being true are very small.

Basically folding KK there = terrible, shoving TT there = generally terrible. You get bad players at nosebleed stakes too.

 

[switch0723]

If that was in the 5k freezeout, he should shove every time since only first place wins don't they?

 

[theskillzdatklls]

correct.. i guess that's another important point i didn't think of.. if he doesn't take a "risk" -although i think that's a bad word- with KK, it would most likely reduce his chances of winning by a great deal.

 

[vanquish]

If that was in the 5k freezeout, he should shove every time since only first place wins don't they?

they chop very often in that tournament

 

[MR TOYMAKER]

I didn't start being a profitable player till I folded high pockets or even small ones also. I would go down in flames with them. I have better reads and can sense when I'm beat. I trust the read and have laiddown AA's and kk's it has proven a key decision to live and fight another day. A few times that laydown was key and I either ITM or won the toureny and or sng. I've laid down even trips another chip bleeder with a bad board.

 

[switch0723]

they chop very often in that tournament

ahh ok

 

[OzExorcist]

Maybe they took Phil Gordon's "The fourth raise always means aces" to heart, but got the number wrong?

 

[tpb221]

KK very hard to fold here, but if most of the time the top three chop this tourney maybe he's thinking they will make there own mistakes and knock themself out. Folded AA in a tourney in vegas. Very next hand two people out in a three way. We chopped.

P.S. If you are going to vegas try the MGM and Ceasars for tourneys. Enjoyed both places.

 

[CfPoker]

I trust the read and have laiddown AA's

What possible read have you had on your opponent that has made you lay down AA?

 

[OzExorcist]

What possible read have you had on your opponent that has made you lay down AA?

The post doesn't specify if it's before or after the flop. Postflop I've definitely folded them on occasion.

 

[KyleJRM]

What possible read have you had on your opponent that has made you lay down AA?

His opponent was holding seven hole cards.

 

[theskillzdatklls]

errr.. late game tournament stuff i don't care what the situation is or how many people are in the pot i'll push AA all day long.. choppage, bubblage, whatever, its all gravy if you have a massively favored hand and are trying to win some real money. very bad play... just think long term here buddy, maybe you got cash by folding AA, but overall, if you think about it, folding AA in that spot long term is -EV guaranteed

the only non - satty AA fold i've heard of (that I would never go for, but has been done a few times I hear..) applies to early game pre-flop all-ins where people lay down AA because 8x% isn't good enough for them, they like 95% + certainties they will win. But this ONLY applies to their early game strategy where M is enormous.