fold or call this?

[Tygran]

I apologize for the layout of the hand, I copied it out of bodog but screwed up the copy so I'll just recreate it as best I can. All stacks involved are ~1500 give or take 50.

This is early in a $10+1 SnG, blinds 10/20.

UTG: Raises 150
Hero (on button): Raises 300 with Js Jd
BB: Call 300
UTG: Calls 300

Flop: 5d, 7h 9c

UTG: Bets out 200.
Hero: Raises to 400
BB: Calls
UTG: Reraises all in...
Hero: ???

I've seen the BB before and he's very loose, especially out of a blind. We are about 6 minutes into the SnG and this is UTG's first hand he's played. What do you do here?

I'm not extremely worried about the BB at this point because I've seen him do this sort of play with mid pair after calling raises with rags. How much credit should I be giving UTG? I have to think he has something and I would hope noone would be playing anything other than AK(preflop anyway...re raising postflop I hope eliminates AK), high pairs or maybe a mid pair like 99 that hit the flop like this but on the other hand it's early in the tourny and i've been seeing tons of terrible plays early on in sngs lately.


Results below:

I folded it giving him credit for a big pair. the BB called the all in. Turns out UTG had J9 and was betting top pair way too hard and the BB had as expected an 8T giving him nothing but a straight draw. River was a T and the 8T took it down. Would have tripled up if i'd called this, oh well. Part of my thinking was that this guy hadn't played a hand, which is extremely unusual for someone that loose. and the BB could have had 2 pair or something. Should I have done anything differentl?

 

[blankoblanco]

i cheated and read the results already, but don't worry, i'm not results oriented . i still think your fold was right. he raised big UTG so there should be almost no 9s in his range except 99 (which beats you) and very rarely A9 (maybe soooted). the hand that beats you which makes the most sense is TT, but even then, you've basically represented a big pair the whole way. his action on the flop suggests he can beat at least JJ.

the thing is if he's bad enough to play some dumb assorted 9 this way, like J9, he can easily have 55, obviously 77 and 99 are both reasonable, 97s, maybe 75s, or have played QQ, KK, or AA slow preflop.

BB's involvement in the hand is very concerning as well, after all the strong action. the overcall of the flop raise on a rainbow board is very very often a set or the mortal nuts (86s), maybe top two pair. between the two of them, i think you're crushed the large majority of the time. this hand just happened to be kind of a fluke.. i mean J9!? i'm glad he lost.

 

[viking999]

I'd call.

It's hard to put UTG on a bigger pair than you. By the time the action got back to him preflop, there was 750 in the pot. Doubtful he's going to slowplay when the pot is already more than half his remaining stack.

Your all-in decision here is giving you almost 3:1 (2100 in the pot to your 800 left). Plus if you assume BB is going to call, which is likely, you're almost getting 4:1 to call. I think you figure to be way better than 20% to win here on average, even though sometimes you'll only have two outs which is about 9%.

Some might say fold in the interest of preserving your tournament life, but it's not like you're close to cashing or anything. Folding just makes you half as likely to cash/win as you were when you started the tournament.

Edit: And as for what UTG can have that you beat, I'd expect him to rip here with TT, 88, 66, some 9, occasionally an underpair, and occasionally JT (two overs and top end of a gutter). I think if you're going to make the min-raise preflop like you want action, you can't shy away from the action later. Not with these short stacks.

 

[blankoblanco]

I'd call.

It's hard to put UTG on a bigger pair than you. By the time the action got back to him preflop, there was 750 in the pot. Doubtful he's going to slowplay when the pot is already more than half his remaining stack.

problem is it's equally hard to put him on a 9, if not harder. he raised big UTG at the beginning of a 9 handed SnG. if he can have a lone 9 here, i see no reason why he can't have a big pair. and i've seem an epidemic of slowplayed big pairs preflop lately.

Your all-in decision here is giving you almost 3:1 (2100 in the pot to your 800 left). Plus if you assume BB is going to call, which is likely, you're almost getting 4:1 to call. I think you figure to be way better than 20% to win here on average, even though sometimes you'll only have two outs which is about 9%.

we just differ in opinion based on our experiences. i happen to think your "sometimes" as to us having two outs is more like "often times". it's hard to count on both players being completely brain dead, which pretty much is what had to happen in order for us to be in good shape. i still think it was kind of a flukey hand.

i don't really think calling is bad because so many people do play awful, but i think it's fairly marginal and i just slightly favor folding.

 

[TubaMark316]

I would actually push here as well...

Either he is rockin' top pair (Like you said, ) or he has a set...you have an overpair and you have him BEAT! Kick him in the gonads and take all his money!!!

But hey, like they say, get 'em next time!

 

[viking999]

we just differ in opinion based on our experiences. i happen to think your "sometimes" as to us having two outs is more like "often times". it's hard to count on both players being completely brain dead, which pretty much is what had to happen in order for us to be in good shape. i still think it was kind of a flukey hand.

Even if "sometimes" is 50% of the time, maybe even more, we're still getting good odds for a call because we're 9% when behind and no worse than 50% when ahead (maybe open ender and top pair with live 2 pair and trips outs). Sometimes we'll run into the straight and be screwed, but that's a REALLY crappy hand. It's going to be very rare.

problem is it's equally hard to put him on a 9, if not harder. he raised big UTG at the beginning of a 9 handed SnG. if he can have a lone 9 here, i see no reason why he can't have a big pair. and i've seem an epidemic of slowplayed big pairs preflop lately.

Well, the issue with putting him on a hand here is that if he was getting out of line raising UTG with garbage, we only min-reraised, and he was getting 5:1 to call preflop. He could easily have a 9 if his initial raise was loose. Plus there's a decent chance of TT, 88, or 66, which isn't out of line at all.

 

[Tygran]

Interesting debate. I very very nearly did call this hand.

I can see the arguments on both sides. Against one opponent I would have pushed this, against two I was less willing to because 1) one or both could already have 2 pair, an overpair, trips or a straight. All I could believe at this point. The arguments are good both ways I think.

For what it's worth I found out in an expensive manner that UTG was as bad as the BB was. Went on to double up twice off the BB later and finished 2nd on the table so it worked out this time

 

[vanquish]

I like a fold here, as villain often holds a huge pair. That being said you did invest a huge amount of chips into the pot already, which makes this decision borderline. In a ring game I think I call this, in a tournament, I fold to play another hand.

 

[lottomode777]

Don't give low buy in players too much credit. I will often call in this spot, especially if I have a lot of chips invested. Donkey's will overvalue top pair with any decent kicker, reraise you with AJ and AQ, shove all in with KQ when they are not shortstacked, and other crazy moves like these.