Fold AKs (bubble)

[Kruel7y]

Ill fold easy decision for me!!!!!

why so?
Don't fold it AK guys

 

[xTTTx]

AK loses to all pocket pairs, and we will be a little behind, at this stage of the game, I would throw off my hand, or in a 50% stake if suited, if not then pass in 70% of cases

 

[cranberry]

I think you did everything right. In this case, you do not need to guess whether your opponent has AA or KK. Your opponent also understands, that now there is a bubble and for him there is no need to go all-in on a weak hand.

 

[PokerNuts01]

I think you did everything right. In this case, you do not need to guess whether your opponent has AA or KK. Your opponent also understands, that now there is a bubble and for him there is no need to go all-in on a weak hand.

Exactly! In the same situation I would have do the same thing again.

 

[ph_il]

Ugh. Why would you not jam here with AK?

If you fold here, have fun with your consistent min-cashes.

 

[ph_il]

Snap reshove.

I like you.

You made a lot of great points and said pretty much everything I would have. Going to keep an eye out for your posts.

 

[ph_il]

Yes you are there to win. But you should also care about bubbling out.

In the long run you have more chances of winning this tourney by avoiding unnecessary risks such as this. If you call consistently you will make the final table ~4/10 as big stack but by folding you make final table ~7/10 with a medium stack. I would rather keep the medium stack for sure than risk a good portion of my stack. I would not be so quick to risk my chips if my read is a coin flip.

What are these random numbers you pulled of thin air?

How did you even come to this conclusion?

 

[Andrew Popov]

Bubble is a special situation.

Explanation to the screenshot: yesterday, on a bubble player with a large stack opened a raise from an early position. I used the entire time-bank and found it best to drop the QQ. A player with a short stack on BB - went for everything. The result of the distribution you see. If I decided to play my pair, I would not have got into the prize zone.

 

[PokerNuts01]

Ugh. Why would you not jam here with AK?

Raise and shove in front of me.. Did you look at statistics of players who shoves?
CO: 13.76 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 8.89, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 45)
lol 3Bet Preflop: 0.00 in 45 hands!!
I still think this is a good fold, not because "min-cash" .. i saved chips for next hand and for "safe" double-up with QQ

 

[Amdrius]

Please, What do you think about this fold.. bubble fight 5 min ago.. Hot $5,50
PokerStars - 800/1600 Ante 200 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1: 16.6 BB (VPIP: 26.32, PFR: 15.79, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 19)
MP+2: 19.7 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 12.20, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 45)
CO: 13.76 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 8.89, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 45)
BTN: 19.92 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
Hero (SB): 25.5 BB
BB: 17.39 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 15.56, 3Bet Preflop: 13.04, Hands: 45)
UTG: 13.41 BB (VPIP: 17.78, PFR: 16.28, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 45)
UTG+1: 5.2 BB
MP: 26.01 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 100.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.63 BB) Hero has A♦ K♦

fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 2.3 BB, CO raises to 13.64 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, fold, fold

CO wins 7.23 BB

Question fold or push ... To answer it, decide for yourself what is your main task! Your task is to get into prizes? - Fold! If your task at least get to the final table is a hundred percent push. Personally for me, it's better to get into the final table once and take first place than to get 100 or more times after the bubble, which in most cases will be minus at the distance, because How your ITM in MTT hardly exceeds 20%.

 

[trent32la]

Bubble is a special situation.

Explanation to the screenshot: yesterday, on a bubble player with a large stack opened a raise from an early position. I used the entire time-bank and found it best to drop the QQ. A player with a short stack on BB - went for everything. The result of the distribution you see. If I decided to play my pair, I would not have got into the prize zone.

Folding QQ here is Beyond LOL unless this is a satellite. The fact that you would have lost if you went all in, is irrelevant. You could have gotten it in as an 80% favorite HU or a 67% favorite 3ways.

If you would have won this hand had you played it, this is never posted.

 

[PokerNuts01]

Question fold or push ... To answer it, decide for yourself what is your main task! Your task is to get into prizes? - Fold! If your task at least get to the final table is a hundred percent push. Personally for me, it's better to get into the final table once and take first place than to get 100 or more times after the bubble, which in most cases will be minus at the distance, because How your ITM in MTT hardly exceeds 20%.

For you have the same answer, read the post above yours m8
I've played a lot of final tables and I do not believe in this story, the final table never depend on one single hand. Better a good fold than bad call lol

 

[ph_il]

Raise and shove in front of me.. Did you look at statistics of players who shoves?
CO: 13.76 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 8.89, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 45)
lol 3Bet Preflop: 0.00 in 45 hands!!
I still think this is a good fold, not because "min-cash" .. i saved chips for next hand and for "safe" double-up with QQ

I still jam even with the 11% vpip/45 hands.

I don't even run a HUD and this is still an easy jam.

lol. You actually think getting QQ is significant to this hand? It's not. You don't always wake up with big hands after folding. You weren't rewarded because you folded. You getting QQ and doubling up is completely irrelevant to the hand in question.

 

[Andrew Popov]

What are these random numbers you pulled of thin air?

How did you even come to this conclusion?

+1
We can not know with which stack we will reach the final table in a few dozen hands. And whether we can reach the final table. Decisions must be made here and now based on the current situation. And do not try to guess our position in an hour of play ...

 

[PokerNuts01]

I still jam even with the 11% vpip/45 hands.
.

This is one of the reasons why poker is such a good game .. It would be interesting if we all play and think the same? One of the reason why I put this on the forum - I always learn from different experiences.
And I now know that u ar call my 4bet (AA or KK) with AKs lol

 

[Andrew Popov]

Folding QQ here is Beyond LOL unless this is a satellite. The fact that you would have lost if you went all in, is irrelevant. You could have gotten it in as an 80% favorite HU or a 67% favorite 3ways.

If you would have won this hand had you played it, this is never posted.

Oh, lol ... This is not the final table. Where does HU or 3way? Another 20 people with 18 prizes. I had the 14th place. I just had to go through two players to get money.

 

[Edson]

It's on bubble so it isn't very comfortable decision. I'ts very big Chance that You will have classic coin flip or You will dominating Aj or AQ.
In my opinion You should shove and isolate CO. Even If You would lost You will still have more4 than 10bb, bout if You win You will have perfect stack to take control on the table to the end of buble ;]

 

[PokerNuts01]

It's on bubble so it isn't very comfortable decision. I'ts very big Chance that You will have classic coin flip or You will dominating Aj or AQ.
In my opinion You should shove and isolate CO. Even If You would lost You will still have more4 than 10bb, bout if You win You will have perfect stack to take control on the table to the end of buble ;]

What is the chance that guy who plays vpp 11% without 3bet in 45 hands now push 3bet allin with AJ/AQ on bubble? 5%, 10%? :dontknow:

 

[ph_il]

What is the chance that guy who plays vpp 11% without 3bet in 45 hands now push 3bet allin with AJ/AQ on bubble? 5%, 10%? :dontknow:

you make it sound like 11%/45 hands is an amazing stat. Or that they're McNits.

Playing 5/45 or 1/9 hands or 1 hand per rotation is a lot of hands. For all you know, they could be completing the SB or calling small raises with a lot of hands.

 

[PokerNuts01]

you make it sound like 11%/45 hands is an amazing stat. Or that they're McNits.

Playing 5/45 or 1/9 hands or 1 hand per rotation is a lot of hands. For all you know, they could be completing the SB or calling small raises with a lot of hands.

Yes, agree with you.. but please m8.. no 3bet in 45 hand and after that shove on bubble??

 

[ph_il]

Yes, agree with you.. but please m8.. no 3bet in 45 hand and after that shove on bubble??

Again. Nothing. Let me ask, how often do you find 3bet jam spots as a short stack? What hand range do you shove as a short stack?

CO would have to only be shoving <2% of hands here to beat us, otherwise we're a strong favorite preflop to win. A good range to give is something like 88+, all Broadway cards and we're still a 60% favorite.

 

[Mike D_]

That shoving guy have a chip stack of 29k one of the best stacks at the table, if u know he is a rich donk (got his chips in multiway pots, shoves after shoves) you should think twice to call; if he got his stack by playing strong postflop then it's an easy fold.

 

[PokerNuts01]

Again. Nothing. Let me ask, how often do you find 3bet jam spots as a short stack? What hand range do you shove as a short stack?

CO would have to only be shoving <2% of hands here to beat us, otherwise we're a strong favorite preflop to win. A good range to give is something like 88+, all Broadway cards and we're still a 60% favorite.

My range it depends on a few things .. but on bubble I would not even think that shove with 88 agains raise in front of me and chipleader who ackts after me. Maybe he did shove with 77-JJ, but I still see raise and reraise and in the best situation I have a coin flip wright?

 

[TheHulk7]

I think it was a good fold. I had a similar situation last night, I got the same hand AKs, and raise + all in, in front of me. I decided to throw my AKs and it was a good decision, they had QQ - AA, the guy with pocket queens flopped a set. Anyway, it was a hard decision, AK is a strong hand but I think it's overrated...

 

[trent32la]

Fwiw, a 45 hand sample isn't enough to determine if a player's 3bet range is exclusively nutted, even at 0%.

As OSMB covered, your 3betting range on a short stack is going to be tightened up significantly, as you cannot 3bet light with no fold equity. Also in order to 3bet, you must be facing a raise in front of you. Meaning V's 3bet/# of opportunities stats isn't going to be 0/45, rather 0 out of how ever many opportunities he had to 3bet.