Fold AK here?

[royalburrito24]

Final 60 or so of a 180 SNG, 18 paid
Im sitting in about 10-15th place
AKos UTG+1, UTG limper
LAGish read on villain
full tilt poker Game #4357665804: $2 + $0.25 Sit & Go (33048018), Table 13 - 50/100 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:38:21 ET - 2007/12/01
Seat 1: gonefishinil (165), is sitting out
Seat 2: AK-SEAN-JQ (2,610)
Seat 3: royalburrito24 (5,995)
Seat 4: Sweetestdream (1,850)
Seat 5: crankatorium (5,595)
Seat 6: ladybug337 (2,020)
Seat 7: squatch97402 (340)
Seat 8: Fredtheking (4,130)
Fredtheking posts the small blind of 50
gonefishinil posts the big blind of 100
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to royalburrito24 [Ac Kd]
AK-SEAN-JQ calls 100
royalburrito24 raises to 350
Sweetestdream folds
crankatorium folds
ladybug337 folds
squatch97402 folds
Fredtheking folds
gonefishinil folds
AK-SEAN-JQ raises to 2,610, and is all in
royalburrito24 ?????

 

[ChuckTs]

vs a LAG I'm perfectly willing to stick em in here, especially with your stack size.

Big pairs occasionally do this, but IMO a lot of the time you see weaker pairs and aces that wanted to see a flop, are pissed you raised them, and now want to take the pot down.

 

[royalburrito24]

vs a LAG I'm perfectly willing to stick em in here, especially with your stack size.

Big pairs occasionally do this, but IMO a lot of the time you see weaker pairs and aces that wanted to see a flop, are pissed you raised them, and now want to take the pot down.

I have not seen the guy show down a hand recently, so I really had no idea where I was at, I literally sat there, thinking 50% hes got AA or KK, 50% hes got QQ and worse

 

[Four Dogs]

Eh, your up against a pair for sure. You got plenty of chips. No need to mix it up. Lay low.

 

[Emperor IX]

Think for a while then fold. Like Four Dogs said, you've got a hell of a stack.

 

[Melkor]

I have to say, the stack size in this example makes me want to call. It is tough to see us being dominated enough of the time by AA or KK to fold this, imo. The player has not shown any massive strength. Think that ChuckTs range is pretty accurate, I would lean towards a smaller pair, and our stack allows us to race and get really strong for a great shot at the money. We lose, medium stack, more than still in with a shout.

 

[ChuckTs]

I have not seen the guy show down a hand recently, so I really had no idea where I was at, I literally sat there, thinking 50% hes got AA or KK, 50% hes got QQ and worse

Well I'm banking on some weaker aces and other random hands in order to call, but if that's your range on him then it's an easy fold. Stats would help here.

Another thing to note is how your table is playing, ie how likely it is that he's trying to limp-raise at an aggressive table, or if he's doing an out of place limp-push at a passive table.

 

[royalburrito24]

ended up folding, and sittin in the final 5 of same tournament,
here is the rail request thread

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/a-game-going-rail-requests-42/rail-request-180-sng-99266/#post664491

 

[vanquish]

snapcall/fistpump if villain is LAG i think

 

[Tygran]

Against a LAG in this spot I'm insta-calling this with your stack!

You are giving him too much credit, if he really has AA/KK (possible, but I'd say nowhere near 50%) he'd bet less probably to induce a call/raise.

QQ or less or AT-AQ type hand imo.

 

[Genso Hikki]

I admire your restraint, but there's probably no way I'm folding here. I agree with Chuck that it's more likely to be a small pair who was ticked about the raise and just decided to try to take down the pot right there. The only thing that has you in terrible shape is aces or kings. Plus like others have said, you could afford the call with your stack size.

 

[Four Dogs]

I don't understand this "call, it's probably a small pair" mentality. AK is a great PF raising hand, and a great PF shoving hand when the situation calls for it, but for cryin' out load, it's not even 50% to win vs dueces. Good players try to avoid coinflips when possible. If you're mediocre than this may be your best chance to win. If you're solid then you can afford to wait.

 

[ChuckTs]

Agreed, FD but we're not just against pairs. Against a looser player we'll often see some really weird hands like AT and KQ. Hell, I've seen JTs and similar hands in similar spots.

With villain being "LAGish", I'm starting to think that's not quite enough reason to call and I'd need a little more than that to stick em in.

 

[beechleaf]

Im thinking you are a head here could have a pp but more than likly its A/Q or A/j suited and is trying too buy the blinds

 

[CAPT. ZIGZAG]

Call, and crush him.

-

 

[Sinatra74]

well its online poker i'm assuming so push your chips in and cover your eyes

 

[tosborn]

Agreed, FD but we're not just against pairs. Against a looser player we'll often see some really weird hands like AT and KQ. Hell, I've seen JTs and similar hands in similar spots.

With villain being "LAGish", I'm starting to think that's not quite enough reason to call and I'd need a little more than that to stick em in.

This is where I would like to be able to easily see a villains preflop 3-bet% as it is often vastly different than the standard VP$IP.

 

[c9h13no3]

You're big stacked, and can wait for a better position. I figure a small pocket pair would make a play like that, and you're in a position where you don't need to take coinflips for half your stack. We're probably a better player than this guy, and we can probably get in a better situation later to take his chips.

Also, how many hands that villan would make this move with do we have good odds against (2:1 or better)?

 

[Bentheman87]

Neither you or him are under much pressure from the blinds right now, it looks to me like he has 88 or 77 here. You should fold here and wait till the blinds are much higher before you start racing for a ton of chips. But then again, you will still be ok if you call this and lose so tough decision.

 

[aznman08]

I would fold here since the blinds aren't putting wither of you in pressure. He would most likely have a weak ace or a small pair. Also you havent invested too much money into the pot to call him.

 

[viking999]

I don't understand this "call, it's probably a small pair" mentality. AK is a great PF raising hand, and a great PF shoving hand when the situation calls for it, but for cryin' out load, it's not even 50% to win vs dueces. Good players try to avoid coinflips when possible. If you're mediocre than this may be your best chance to win. If you're solid then you can afford to wait.

It looks like you have to win 43% of the time to make this a profit. So overall versus coin flips it's profitable to call here with AK (worst is break even versus QQ-TT). The real reason not to call in "coin flip" situations is because it might not be a coin flip. The chance of him having AA or KK has to be offset by the possibility he has AQ, AJ, KQ, etc. If you were somehow 100% sure it was a coin flip, you'd almost always have to call because of the odds (unless it put your stack at risk).

If he's LAG or even average looseness/tightness, I think a call here is right. You have enough chips to risk half on slight +EV situations.

 

[Four Dogs]

It looks like you have to win 43% of the time to make this a profit. So overall versus coin flips it's profitable to call here with AK (worst is break even versus QQ-TT). The real reason not to call in "coin flip" situations is because it might not be a coin flip. The chance of him having AA or KK has to be offset by the possibility he has AQ, AJ, KQ, etc. If you were somehow 100% sure it was a coin flip, you'd almost always have to call because of the odds (unless it put your stack at risk).

If he's LAG or even average looseness/tightness, I think a call here is right. You have enough chips to risk half on slight +EV situations.

I think we're getting our tournament objectives and our ring objectives a little confused. In a ring game It would probably be the correct call even if you knew for sure you were up against a pair, the uncertainty makes the call even more compelling. But this isn't a cash game, and the chips do not represent money, or at least not a set value. In a tournament you profit from survival, and you survive by reducing volitility.

When you have a big stack, like you do here, you're much better off bullying the table for small pots and calling innocuous all-in bets from short stacks. Why take uneccassary risks when time, and I assume skill, are on your side. There's no need to roll around in the mud with the hogs.

 

[pokerace3454]

AK was not all in hand just call every body limps in raise then

 

[aliengenius]

You are potentially going to run into an image/meta-game problem here with a fold. You can't laydown too many of your re-raises to a three bet without people noticing that they can bully you because you are willing to make the "professional" fold.

I tend to agree that this is a small pair, horribly played. I think this is a terrible way to play your baby pair, as you get called by better hands ALWAYS, and can really only hope for 50/50 AT BEST if called in other situations.

Apparently the donk thinking here is "My reraise was just a warning message : You will play your tourney on that hand. I've got a legitimate hand. What about you?" Seriously, if your hand is so "legitimate" why didn't you open raise instead of limping? Do you think a small pair is strong enough to "trap" with? Do you really think that people re-reraise without "legitimate" hands? Do you really think you have a ton of fold equity vs. someone's reraise range? WTF?

This is so horrible it has me on tilt just thinking about it.

 

[soccerfreakjj10]

Totally BOT, but I guess it is a good thing because it enabled AG to post some ground-breaking analysis (well it was good )

The quote from Nico be awssshhhhum! because it gets us in the mind of one of these oober LAG players.