Errrr, do you call?

[blankoblanco]

Full Tilt Poker Game #1590432057: $20 + $2 Sit & Go (11571582), Table 1 - 25/50 - No Limit Hold'em - 7:46:46 ET - 2007/01/13
Seat 1: bnm72 (1,125)
Seat 3: FrushDraw (715)
Seat 4: FinnishFlash (1,360)
Seat 5: combuboom (1,275)
Seat 6: rjmgrace (2,940)
Seat 8: JessAlba (4,955)
Seat 9: Dman112 (1,130)
JessAlba posts the small blind of 25
Dman112 posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to combuboom [Qs Qc]
bnm72 folds
FrushDraw folds
FinnishFlash folds
combuboom raises to 150
rjmgrace folds
JessAlba folds
Dman112 calls 100
*** FLOP *** [3h Ks 5d]
Dman112 checks
combuboom checks
*** TURN *** [3h Ks 5d] [Th]
Dman112 bets 325
combuboom calls 325
*** RIVER *** [3h Ks 5d Th] [Kd]
Dman112 bets 655, and is all in
combuboom...

No reads :/

 

[robwhufc]

Cant see how you can call the turn and fold the river. Your decision was on the turn, not the river - if you're guessing he's not got a King, you call (or raise) and call river bet. If you think he's has got the King, you fold,but that's just guesswork. The River king means there are now only 2 Kings unaccounted for instead of 3, but you've got yourself in this quandry with your early play.

I'd call, you've got it all to do to place with 700 or so chips sitting in front of the 2 big stacks, so i'd take a gamble he's bluffing - dont really see you've got a choice now.

 

[Irexes]

Noooooooooo.

And then I wonder why I didn't bet the flop.

 

[Irexes]

It's a fair point Rob makes that once you are where you are you may as well call given the times you will be ahead. But the trick is not to get in that position in the first place by playing either the turn or the flop differently (by either betting out, raising or folding)

 

[blankoblanco]

Noooooooooo.

And then I wonder why I didn't bet the flop.

Well it's a WA/WB situation. From what I've learned on the boards recently, the check behind on the flop is pretty standard. I could have bet in an attempt to gain information sure, but by no means do I think it's necessarily the optimal play.

When I bet and he just calls, what did I learn? He probably either has a K and is way ahead, or he has a pocket pair and is way behind. That doesn't do me much good. It's nothing but a c-bet to him. I learn close to nothing unless he raises. It's a practically drawless board so if he has a good king, he's just calling more often than not.

 

[loopmeister]

I hate these hands. I fold here, and sit wondering if the swine was bluffing while he scoops up 1/3 of my stack...

.. or I call and then curse my stupidity when I sit with an M of one after he turns over KJ

 

[Irexes]

If you bet the flop, you can set the size of the bet. If you let him dictate action on the turn he can make it a bigger one.

If you let him have a card, he can either hit an out or use it to represent a hand given your perceived weakness.

There's a time for WA/WB but I do not think this is it. As evidence I would point to the fact that by letting him decide the size of the bet on the turn you are pretty much priced in to calling the bet on the river.

A bet on the flop of 150-250 would have given you a lot more opportunities on this hand. In the event you end up putting 1000 in the pot in a situation where you may have been behind when the flop came.

WA/WB is great concept to inform post flop play, but if you overuse it you will develop a lot of leaks which add up to serious gaps in your game.


(Just to add that I read a long time ago somewhere, that poker is about identifying the differences in superficially similar situations. I really subscribe to this idea.)

 

[alan1983]

I also think you shouldve bet the flop.

You left yourself open for a hand like Ace ten or lower pair to take control of the hand.

 

[Going Deep]

I need to know how the player was playing earlier in the game. Your mistake was checking the flop. It told him you didnt have the king and more than likely the flop didnt help you.

 

[blankoblanco]

Irexes, I see your point. Especially in the case of a tournament where survival is key and I don't have a lot of chips to work with, betting on the flop is probably a good idea, just because it reduces the chances of getting myself into big trouble. I guess maybe checking behind in WA/WB situations is more optimal for cash games than tournaments? Would anyone agree with that sentiment?

 

[Irexes]

I think you're about right there Com, I'm not a great cash player but I think given that chipEV=$EV in cash games that WA/WB has a broader application for cash. In tournies it's often a different situation although there are many occassions when WA/WB is applicable.

 

[joosebuck]

this is a perfect wawb example (at least i think so.) call expecting to win.

 

[loopmeister]

this is a perfect wawb example (at least i think so.) call expecting to win.

if it was perfect wa/wb, you should fold.

So if after you call his turn bet, he fires on the river, he really really will have your [QQ] beat 95+% of the time.

 

[dbitel]

like i said when i first came to these boards, i know close to nothing about tournament play.

If I was to guess, in a short stacked tourny situation like this, WA/WB lines are less important than in cash games, but i would still think they have relevence. If this was a cash game, your flop play would be 100% standard and correct.

I think in this hand, as played, you have a fold....but like i say...i hate tournies

 

[zebranky]

like i said when i first came to these boards, i know close to nothing about tournament play.

If I was to guess, in a short stacked tourny situation like this, WA/WB lines are less important than in cash games, but i would still think they have relevence. If this was a cash game, your flop play would be 100% standard and correct.

I think in this hand, as played, you have a fold....but like i say...i hate tournies

I'm with dbitel here - even for a tourney, there's nothing wrong with checking the flop - because he should bet a K if all he has is top pair. By checking behind you, though, he's got you debating the whole way through whether you're ahead.

I don't think calling the turn does you any favors - if you're behind, your hand isn't likely to improve (2 outs), and if you are ahead, you're asking him to bet the river, which negates the "standard" way to play WAWB. Either raise the turn, or fold right there.

Once you get to the river - what can you do? call off most of your chips hoping he doesn't have a K, or fold and have less than 1000 chips. your opponents play smells of slow-play, but without a read, I could go either way with call or fold. Probably call, but only because you already committed so many chips on the turn without putting your opponent to the test.

 

[blankoblanco]

I don't think calling the turn does you any favors - if you're behind, your hand isn't likely to improve (2 outs), and if you are ahead, you're asking him to bet the river, which negates the "standard" way to play WAWB.

Eh, I don't agree with this. How am I asking him to bet the river? If he doesn't have a hand, my negation to c-bet the flop and subsequent call on the turn should look incredibly scary to him. To bet the river on a bluff here is basically praying that I, for some reason, called a pot-sized bet with a heart draw that I made on the turn. Even if he knew I had a pair like QQ or JJ, it's unlikely he's going to bluff the river with the 2nd K coming down, considering it makes it that much more unlikely for me to believe he has it, and he's getting called often here. But there's no way he can even put me on those hands. I can play a set or AK the same way. IMO this would be a really bad place for villain to bluff at, which is part of the reason I folded, figuring he had it.

 

[brown110]

If you called the turn and already invested about 1/2 of your stack on the queens... you were getting 3:1 on the queens at that point. This was a spot that I think a fold on the 325 chip raise on the turn or a reraise all in on the turn may have been in order.

 

[blankoblanco]

Why push all-in on the turn when I'm only getting called by a hand that beats me?

My philosophy on the hand is this:

a) He can be bluffing this turn a high % of the time to see where he stands since I didn't bet the flop
b) Considering a, I don't think it makes sense to just give it up here when I pretty much asked him to bet
c) My calling with few draws on the board to speak of (none of which warrant calling his bet) suggests a big hand to him
d) Considering c, his betting on the river can be a proper indication that I should fold
e) A very high percentage of the time he is just going to give up on his stab at the pot and check the river and I take down the pot.

And I think people are drastically overestimating the frequency of double-barrel bluffs. As if calling the turn ensures he's going to push the river every time whether he has it or not.

 

[brown110]

To prevent him from being able to push again on the river if at that point you believed he didnt have the kings.

 

[zebranky]

Eh, I don't agree with this. How am I asking him to bet the river? If he doesn't have a hand, my negation to c-bet the flop and subsequent call on the turn should look incredibly scary to him. To bet the river on a bluff here is basically praying that I, for some reason, called a pot-sized bet with a heart draw that I made on the turn. Even if he knew I had a pair like QQ or JJ, it's unlikely he's going to bluff the river with the 2nd K coming down, considering it makes it that much more unlikely for me to believe he has it, and he's getting called often here. But there's no way he can even put me on those hands. I can play a set or AK the same way. IMO this would be a really bad place for villain to bluff at, which is part of the reason I folded, figuring he had it.

I try sitting in his shoes. If I don't have the K or a set, I'm pretty sure I'm behind. The pot is almost 1000 chips, and you have 655 left. Your opponent just called a big bet on a K high board. river comes K. I'm only 7 minutes into this tourney. Do I want to be short-stacked from here on out? or should I push, hoping for a fold, but willing to move on to the next SNG if I get broken? The odds are my opponent doesn't have a K or FH, so a push should get him to fold.
that's the trouble with SNG's - time investment is as important as dollar investment. most SNG players I know will happily coinflip all in the first hand, because doubling up is huge, and busting out early saves you an hour or two. Faced with this choice, I would push.
If I have the K or a FH, then I still push, because my bet is less than the pot - no other bet makes sense anyway.

 

[Lo-Dog]

Eh, I don't agree with this. How am I asking him to bet the river? If he doesn't have a hand, my negation to c-bet the flop and subsequent call on the turn should look incredibly scary to him. To bet the river on a bluff here is basically praying that I, for some reason, called a pot-sized bet with a heart draw that I made on the turn. Even if he knew I had a pair like QQ or JJ, it's unlikely he's going to bluff the river with the 2nd K coming down, considering it makes it that much more unlikely for me to believe he has it, and he's getting called often here. But there's no way he can even put me on those hands. I can play a set or AK the same way. IMO this would be a really bad place for villain to bluff at, which is part of the reason I folded, figuring he had it.

No comments on the hand up till the river, this is the spot you are in so lets deal with it.

With pot odds of about 16-6 you only need to win this 40% of the time to come out ahead. Do you think the likelyhood of him having you beat is that good? Hes low on chips and you have been check calling so he might be making his move.

Folding makes you the shortest shorstack and the chiplead will have 5X times your stack although its still early.

I'd say with the way the hand played out and stack sizes, there is an above average chance he is bluffing, lets say 20%.

Hard to say what I would do without a read, tight player I might fold, super agressive player I likely call. Sorry no answers just some food for thought.

 

[blankoblanco]

As played, I agree that I could have called. It was a tough decision for me. He didn't seem like a wildly aggressive player or anything. Pretty much came down to I believed he either had a K or had nothing, and it was significantly more likely he had a K for reasons I've noted before. I don't really think a T pushes here, cause he's pretty much only getting called if he's beat, so he doesn't really need to risk his survival.

In summary: agree now I should have bet the flop. As played, I still believe the turn is pretty standard... raising out of fear of being double-barrel bluffed on the river just doesn't seem to make sense unless I have a read on the player suggesting he'll do so frequently. Most players won't. And, as played, folding turn when I basically asked for a weak hand to bet is too weak IMO. River is debatable.

 

[dbitel]

fwiw, any1 who is suggesting raising the turn is VERY wrong. Calling the river is WAY better than raising the turn. DUCY?

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Lead the flop. You will often find out there and then if he has a K - if he check-raises you (or even just calls) it's unlikely he would do so without top pair+ on such a ragged board.

Fact of the matter is, in these shortish-stacked tournament situations, your expected $ gain by doubling up nowhere near matches your expected $ loss by losing all of (or indeed most of) your stack. So anytime you're uncertain, taking a stab early on is often best. Whereas in a deepstacked cash game with more room for maneuver you can look at EV in terms of the hand as a whole, in tournament situations like this you don't have that luxury, and playing a hand as a while in a marginally +tEV (i.e. you expect to gain tourney chips in the long run by making such a play) way might actually mean you're losing $EV (despite the fact you, on average, will increase your stack, your expected $ return on the tourney will decrease because each chip gained is worth less then the last, and vice versa).

I guess what I'm basically trying really horribly to say is that fold equity is far more important in tourneys than cash games.

Raising the turn is of course horrible because no better hands than ours are folding and not many worse hands are calling (villain might incorrectly feel 'priced in' with a flush draw, T-something or ~JJ though).

As played, ugh, I think we have to call the river, just barely. If the second K doesn't hit I think it's much more easily foldable.

 

[blankoblanco]

Good posts and insights, all. I will not be getting myself into one of these messes again, if I can help it.