early mtt hand

joosebuck

joosebuck

Legend
early stages of the rebuy mtt period, at a really really good table. lots of gambling going on, allowing multiple big stacks early. should i take the gambool here and try to get to 35k++ in the first hour or fold since im already at 10k? this was a tough decision for me.

pokerstars Game #8267325353: Tournament #41630203, $3.00+$0.30 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2007/02/03 - 20:42:09 (ET)
Table '41630203 345' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: pierre2002 (8110 in chips)
Seat 2: warthog318 (1800 in chips)
Seat 3: girlie_522 (1500 in chips)
Seat 4: jwaces (3000 in chips)
Seat 5: joosebucklol (10540 in chips)
Seat 6: Chubb1947 (1450 in chips)
Seat 7: mikgoose (4430 in chips)
Seat 8: kingth0r (6485 in chips)
Seat 9: Yuza (7685 in chips)
Chubb1947: posts small blind 25
mikgoose: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to joosebucklol [9c 9h]
kingth0r: raises 6435 to 6485 and is all-in
Yuza: raises 1200 to 7685 and is all-in
pierre2002: folds
Chubb1947 re-buys and receives 1500 chips for $3.00
warthog318: folds
girlie_522: calls 1500 and is all-in
jwaces: calls 3000 and is all-in
joosebucklol: .......
 
t1riel

t1riel

Legend
4 All Ins and you have pocket nines? Even if you are the chip leader, it's an easy fold.
 
joosebuck

joosebuck

Legend
this is the rebuy hour. i'm in a good position to be a favorite considering so. and will be the OVERALL chip leader and can coast for quite a while after this. it's not an "easy fold".
 
Irexes

Irexes

Legend
Rebuys are all about gambling early to avoid having to gamble later. It doesn't matter that your ROI% drops if your profit goes up (providing you can handle the variance).

Depending on what you've seen the two mid-stacks do previously this is worth thinking about. If they've been pushing any two cards then it's not an easy fold.

I probably reluctantly lay it down but I'd call with JJ or with only one mid stack and two small ones.
 
zebranky

zebranky

Rock Star
probably call

I know its early, but hopefully you have some more information than you posted. For example, if all of these guys are consistently all-in, I would call this. 10K is not that much of a lead on a real loose rebuy table. Yes, you're probably going to be behind (because I would bet that at least 4 cards bigger than your are out there waiting for a pair), but take this opportunity. The chance to roughly triple up is too good to ignore in a re-buy. I would call with any marginal hand - even suited connectors - hoping to get lucky.
 
joosebuck

joosebuck

Legend
by good table that is exactly what i mean. all in with any ace, any king any suited queen any pair etc. that is why this fold is not an easy fold.
 
zebranky

zebranky

Rock Star
leader for cheap

As a general rule, in a multi-rebuy tourney, I want ot be at least 10x buyin before I quit taking chances. I assume starting chips are 1500, so you;re not there yet. Me, I take the chance of having a huge stack here, because it makes for smooth sailing to the last table if you play conservatively (plus you carry a loose image with you after the rebuy period).

Having said that, if you don't like buying in 10 times just to get lucky twice in a row, then wait for a hand where you have better chances.
Lets try a little math - there's two you need to beat to make a profit here (King and Yuza), but really for your hand beating 2 is the same chance as beating all 4.
roughly 12% of the time you hit your set and win.
assume there are 3 overcards between them. at least one of them will hit 75% of the time. So roughly 25% of the time you win if you don't hit the trips.
finally (as a spoiler), let's say one of them has a suited hand. roughly 2% of the hands you would otherwise win is lost to this flush. Smae goes for them hitting a straight, about 2%

your rough odds are 12+25-2-2, or 33%. I still say call, because your pot odds are MUCH better than this.
 
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